No registration required! (Why?)

Falcon Day Traders


I believe this is the place in the forum it is ok to post about advisory services. Forgive me if this isn't, I don't want to seem like I am spamming but I do want to tell you about my service as it is relatively new.

[url]http://www.falcondaytraders.com[/url]

We offer a free trial for 5 Days. When you take it you get live commentary and calls from 7 AM Central Time to 4:00 PM Central Time.

I'll let the website describe about what we do. I've also tried starting a blog where you can ask questions about trading and read more about what we do. The blog is called 'Futures Trading Online' and you can find that at:

[url]http://futurestradingonline.blogspot.com/[/url]

It'd be nice if you posted questions and comments to the blog so I can build the blog up but the real way to see us is to take the free trial. Yes Falcon Day Traders is a service. I hope this post is ok.

Big Blue
just received notice the trial starts next monday. zoo also which is convenient. trades called out by the room monitor will be posted daily.

max
thanks for this update Max......what time zone are u in so I can follow along with the trades you post?

Bruce
im in est. i wasnt planning on posting the trades in realtime. i was going to post each trade for the entire day after the close with approx time entry/exit was taken.

not sure how to calculate total points gained for trades that are scaled out. was going to use pts format but that doesnt provide for multiple exits of single entries. any ideas for a template?

m
quote:
Originally posted by max

im in est. i wasnt planning on posting the trades in realtime. i was going to post each trade for the entire day after the close with approx time entry/exit was taken.

not sure how to calculate total points gained for trades that are scaled out. was going to use pts format but that doesnt provide for multiple exits of single entries. any ideas for a template?

m



The simplest way to handle this is to sidestep the scale-out strategy buy ignoring the first target/scale-out, and exit all-out at the second target. Then just use my simple format with 1 contract.

If you want to track/record the details of the scale-out strategy being used by the service, Use 1 contract for each partial exit target. Then total up the points (or ticks) gained or lost using 1 contract for each partial exit. On a stop-loss, you will have to use the total number of contracts with the full stop exit applied to all contracts equally.

So for example, if the scale-out strategy uses two targets, exit 1/2 at the first target and exit the last 1/2 at the second target, use two contracts as your entry basis. Then count up the points (or ticks) gained for the 1st contract at the first profit target, and the total points for the second contract at the second profit target. If the stop-loss is hit, count up the total points/ticks lost and multiply by 2 (contracts). If the scale-out is using 3 targets, then use 3 contracts for your entry basis and stop loss multiplication factor.

I would track each contract separately, as it is the best way to assure you are counting the ticks gained and lost accurately.

In terms of a end-of-day summary form for the scaling strategy, you might try something like this (DT please check my math):

Total Trades:

Number 1'st Target Wins:
Number 2'nd Target Wins:
Number breakeven:
Number Stop-Loss:

% 1st Target Wins= number 1st target wins / total trades
% 2nd Target Wins= number 2nd target wins / total trades
% breakeven = number breakeven / total trades
% Stop-Loss = number stop-loss / total trades

Total points(or ticks) Gained 1st contract:
Total points(ticks) Gained 2nd contract:
Total points(ticks) Lost:

Total points(ticks) Profit = total 1st contract + total 2nd contract

Gross win/loss ratio = Total Profit / Total Loss
pt i apologize for being a math dummy. can you keep it simpler? lets assume a 4 contract lot is traded. 2 contracts are sold at one point, another contract at 2 points and the last gets stopped at entry price.

please show the calculation. thanks max
Ok, let's assume the signal is to buy the S&P 500 E-mini, symbol ESH7, which is offered at 1436.00.

So you take the offer of 1436.00 buying 4 contracts to go Long.

The first target is 1 ES point = 4 ticks, so you place your limit order to sell 2 contract at 1437.00, and are later filled there on 2 contracts.

The second target is 2 ES points = 8 ticks, so you place your limit order to sell 1 contract at 1438.00, and are later filled there on 1 contract.

The last contract is stopped at break-even, thus zero ticks on 1 contract.


----------Summary-----------


total trades = 1

total number of contracts per trade = 4

number of wins on 1st target = 1
number of wins on 2nd target = 1
number of wins on 3rd target = 0
number of losing trades = 0

% wins on 1st target = 100 %
% wins on 2nd target = 100%
% wins on 2nd target = 0
% stop-loss = 0

Total points(or ticks) Gained 1st target: 4 ticks * 2 contracts = 8 ticks
Total points(ticks) Gained 2nd target: 8 ticks
Total points(ticks) Gained 3nd target: 0

Total points(ticks) Profit = total 1st target + total 2nd target + total 3rd target
= 8 ticks + 8 ticks + 0 ticks = 16 ticks

Total points(ticks) Lost: 0 ticks

Gross win/loss ratio = Total Profit / Total Loss = 16 ticks / 0 ticks = undefined

Avg. profit per contract = total gross profit / total number of contracts
= 16 ticks / 4 contracts = 4 ticks per contract


<edit - removed breakeven trades and % breakeven, because it does not apply in this scale-out strategy.>
Hi Max,

While PT's ideas are great, I am not sure you will be able to monitor these " real time " rooms this way as some rooms make so many market calls that you'll go crazy trying to keep track. I would personally be more interested in the following. Granted that this is the ideal situation. ...

1) Are the calls made ahead of time or after the fact....? Even 10 seconds late is too late in my book especially for a scalping room. You want an entry , a target and a stop loss ahead of time 2). Can many others in the room make the same market call at the same time? In other words are most just jumping in on the advice of the moderator or have they learned the method. 3) Does the moderator use generic entires like "Ok, where getting short here" and then screams into the microphone when the market has moved one point in their favor "ok, get out with half". By this time the market has rallied back up to entry...so in other words are the trades realistic and do you think YOU could actually take them. 4) Can the moderator give control over to some other members to demonstrate that they can make the calls also? Especially true for a scalping room. Of course I am a natural skeptic but you want to see some consistency in the calls made before hand and anything posted after the fact in a real time room or a forum is useless unless it has some educational value.5)Unfortunately one week is just to short to really evaluate the profitability of the market calls over time so I would ask for extensions if you become interested in one.

All these rooms that promote the one point target or less automatically throw up the red flag to me as with slippage I donot beleive and have never been shown it can be done over time consistently. I made reference to a room which doesn't need to be mentioned here that goes for two tick targets and 3 tick stops......now you throw in a time delay on a free trial and it almost may seem like it works but try it real time or ask to see their actual trades and they run for cover...... anyway good luck with the trials ..

Bruce
My comments regarding Pt's ideas are really meant for the scalping rooms. His method is an excellent way to track a room or service that isn't "throwing" out trades every 5 minutes...so my previous post was not meant to detract from his method of evaluation.

Bruce
On your second trade, let's assume the signal is to buy the ES at 1434.50. You place your buy limit for 4 contracts at 1434.50 and are filled there a few minutes later.

Your instructed to use a 6 tick stop loss, so you place a stop/limit order to sell 4 contracts at 1433.00.

Before reaching the first profit target, the market trades down and through the 1433.00 level, filling your stop-loss order selling 4 contracts at 1433.00.

-----new calculation-----

In this case, we need to account for the 6 tick loss on 4 contracts.

gross loss = 6 ticks per contract * 4 contracts = 24 tics

----------Summary-----------

total trades = 2

total number of contracts per trade = 4

number of wins on 1st target = 1
number of wins on 2nd target = 1
number of wins on 3rd target = 0
number of losing trades = 1

% wins on 1st target = 50 %
% wins on 2nd target = 50 %
% wins on 3rd target = 0 %
% stop-loss = 50%

Total points(or ticks) Gained 1st target: 8 ticks
Total points(or ticks) Gained 2nd target: 8 ticks
Total points(ticks) Gained 3rd target: 0 ticks

Total points(ticks) Profit = total 1st target + total 2nd target + total 3rd target
= 8 ticks + 8 ticks + 0 ticks = 16 ticks

Total points(ticks) Lost: 6 ticks * 4 contracts = 24 ticks

Gross win/loss ratio = Total Profit / Total Loss = 16 ticks / 24 ticks = 0.67

Avg. profit per contract = total gross profit / total number of contracts
= 16 ticks / 4 contracts = 4 ticks per contract

Avg. loss per contract = total gross loss / total number of contracts
= 24 ticks / 4 contracts = 6 ticks per contract


Good points Bruce !

I agree, there are many other factors that must be considered, primarily what is referred to as the "underlying premise" of the system. Is it a trend following system, a scalping system, a breakout system, a fading system, short-term (ie 25 signals a day) or longer term (1 or 2 signals a day). This falls outside the scope of a pure statistics gathering and reporting activity.

With that said, in order to compare apples to apples, we do need the statistics the system actually generates. And every system does generate an objective set of statistics. My suggestion was to settle on a basic set of statistics independent of any particular method or service, by which we can compare the different services on level ground.

My suggestion to max is, don't try to do the math during the trading session, do it at night after supper. During the day, just write down on a log sheet: the entry time and price, exit times and prices for each trade. From this you can add up the wins and losses to generate the tallies, and from the tallies you generate the final end-of-day summary report, %wins, %loss, ect.... Separating each trade out into it's individual partial exits, will make the generation of statistics more accurate.
This is all old news to us folks here...we broke the scoop about a year ago so you folks from Elite are a bit behind schedule. We encourage people to ask the tough questions and get statements and don't fall for some flimsy one week trial etc....

now what I would really like to see is one of you Big Blue falcon bashers have the nerve to post a word document that summarizes the teachings..this way we could just point people here to pick up their free copy and save themselves thousands...you could rename it of course....any takers??? Would make a great New year gift!!...I need more egg nog!!
quote:
Originally posted by Lafcadio

This is irony for you...I have been writing on elitetrader.com informing all who want to learn the truth about Falcon Day traders what a scam it is. And on this page is a advertisement heralding 90% wins...what is the site?...non other than the infamous falcon fleece operation.


I was a member... I observed Mr. blue..."Mr Falcon", in all his glory ..rarely did I EVER WITNESS him making a winning call!!! If you have read thus far you know it is something he always promised to do...call live trades...He uses any excuse to escape doing that for a very real reason...His total ineptness and lack of any ability to trade profitably would be all too obvious.

For all those who come hear to find the truth about Falcon day traders...here it is...Falcon and Mr. blue are scam artist ...con artist...BS artist...say what you will. He cannot trade and hasn't a clue as to how to make a profit in the market. You would be better off reading Popular Mechanics than paying a nickel to this scoundrel. Be forewarned!!!