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Millennium-Traders.com


One of the slickest, trading advisory sites on the Web with awesome performance numbers for a monthly fee based service. For example, the futures trading moderator, Hurricane, posted a very healthy average monthly profit over $45K since inception (May 2006), calling trades in the eminis (mostly ES and ER), with ONE contract per trade. Yes, boys and girls, ONE contract per trade. Read that gain and rub your eyes.

Unfortunately, the devil is in the details and therein lies (no pun intented) the problem. The fine print (of which there is no shortage and obviously written by a Philadelphia lawyer) states that "Performance is calculated for each 'Futures & Commodities Day Trading Room' Moderator based on 1 Contract per call from 'First Winner Alert' to 'Last Winner Alert' for each call given in the 'Futures & Commodities Day Trading Room'."

In other words, the Performance is based on the first uptick to the last uptick of any single trade, BEFORE the trade gets stopped out. Millennnium is using a 3 point stop from the intitial buy or sell entry. Do you know of any futures day traders who use a 3 point stop from ENTRY throughout the entire trade? I don't. Most traders will raise their stops as they lock in profits, but not Millennium.

The Performance is a sham that a monkey could produce. Under this measurement system, a trade is considered from entry to peak with no consideration to price action in between even if the 3 point stop is eventually hit. Under this scenario, the worst the moderator can do is lose 3 points if his trade tanks immediately after entry, and the best is the get credit from the entry to the top tick. He could easily have a losing trade in reality, but a big winner in terms of Millennium's Performance as they define it.

As I said, a monkey could produce this Performance, but don't try this at home with real money.



3 points stop is possible if you are and only if you are on the right side of the trend, if not you have to work your a... off to brake even. because 3 points x 2 stopped outs and 1 contract plays you have to be 7 X=right to brake even again, including your fees.
If I understand ahk correctly then all the trades register a profit. I have seen this referred to a back testing system as MFE - Most Favorable Excursion. So if you buy at 1000.0 and the stock moves up to 1001.0 and then drops down and stops you out at 997.0 you record a 1 point MFE. It looks like Millennium are just recording the MFE for each trade and adding all of these together to record what their system is acheiving.

If my understanding is correct then these are results that I don't think that you could come close to producing. I don't think that you could even achieve a small percentage of those results.
I would prefer to see the real money performance stat's (broker account statements) for the average subscriber over say 6 months. Another useful indicator of the service's value to the general trading community is the subscriber turnover rate, that is, what is the average duration a new subscriber stays with the service.
quote:
Originally posted by inventor

3 points stop is possible if you are and only if you are on the right side of the trend, if not you have to work your a... off to brake even. because 3 points x 2 stopped outs and 1 contract plays you have to be 7 X=right to brake even again, including your fees.



A 3 point stop is not necessarily a bad thing in and of itself, since its only one part of the risk:reward profile. A 3 point stop with an average 9 point profit goal will work out over time with a reasonably accurate method (40% wins). Conversely, a 3 point stop with a 3 point or less profit potential per trade is very likely to fail to produce a profitable equity curve over time. Unfortunately, we have no indication of the average profit potential for this service, rendering the 3 point stop meaningless by itself.
quote:
Originally posted by pt_emini

Another useful indicator of the service's value to the general trading community is the subscriber turnover rate, that is, what is the average duration a new subscriber stays with the service.

If it's a con then these figures will obviously be high but they are not going to make those figures available to anybody else are they?
elite,

You are correct, MFE.

Millennium says that individual traders are responsible for their stops and profit objective, thereby negating any need for a realworld performance record. I agree and so see reason to post their Disneyland Performance numbers except to increase the appeal of joining the service.

IMHO, Millennium may be the best marketers in the trading business.
quote:
Originally posted by ahk

elite,

You are correct, MFE.

Millennium says that individual traders are responsible for their stops and profit objective, thereby negating any need for a realworld performance record. I agree and so see reason to post their Disneyland Performance numbers except to increase the appeal of joining the service.

IMHO, Millennium may be the best marketers in the trading business.



Correct me here but it is my understanding a complete trade is an entry followed by an exit.

This is a trading service that provides only entry but not exit criteria ?

So, paraphrasing the service being offered.....
"We know exactly when and where to get into a new trade, but have no idea how to get out..."


Not quite. The moderator can call the exiting of the trade at any time as well as tell the room to consider taking some profits. However those calls have no relation to the Performance as stated in that Web section.

In other words, there is "Peformance" and than there is everything else which run the gamut. Millenium believes their job is to feed traders ideas (entries) and then although they may give some guidance on how to manage the trade, but it is the member's responsibility to execute as he/she sees fit.

So, again, Performance is a bottom to top metric with no purpose or value except to lure the lazy who don't read the fine print into believing this service can create over $45,000 of wealth every month trading one contract with a 3 point stop from entry.

Get rich quick marketing. I suspect this room has very hugh turnover and a history of poor souls who busted out their accounts.

quote:
Originally posted by pt_emini
"We know exactly when and where to get into a new trade, but have no idea how to get out..."

...and we are going to assume that you got out at the top/bottom of the move before the stop was hit so that we can measure fantastic and unrealistic performance.
quote:
Originally posted by day trading

quote:
Originally posted by pt_emini
"We know exactly when and where to get into a new trade, but have no idea how to get out..."

...and we are going to assume that you got out at the top/bottom of the move before the stop was hit so that we can measure fantastic and unrealistic performance.



Exactly !!!
I had a better experience with Millenium. I was in the futures trading room with JT and I found his calls to be clear (which I've found to be a big problem for most of these rooms) and generally on the money. I thought he was a very good trader. He trades strictly price momentum and primarily on the YM, although he'd also take trades on ES, TF, gold and oil.

The performance report is BS. They count any trade as a winner after, I think, 3 ticks and then they count the high of the move as the exit, as if you magically exited and the maximum profit. I didn't get too hung up on the performance report. It was skewed and unrealistic and everybody knew it.

JT said he took live trades along with the room and had a day stop and a profit stop at $750. He usually hit his profit stop. He recommended scaling out of a 3 position trade at $50, $70, and then a runner. So, his risk was $450 and the profit was $120+ - not ideal but it seemed to work for him.