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Are you winning?

This post was prompted by something I read today. elite trader asked myptofvu if he was a profitable trader. myptofvu apparently gave an honest answer. No details, but quite frank. Well, this is something I would dearly like to know about all residents and visitors here. Are you winning or losing?

Many posts here have alluded to successes. Several contributors are revealing their basic strategies. PT is posting daily logs of his trades, both wins and losses. I think that's awesome and want to thank you all for sharing. But let's take it further.

We all keep pretty tight about our overall profits/losses. I've visited several trading rooms and it's the same. Not many traders will reveal their real performance. Over and over, we put these vendors under pressure to supply broker-verified statements. Well, without going to that extent, how about a general summation of your successes/failures? We'll take it on the honor system.

Now I realize that it may be considered extremely rude to ask a guy how much money he makes. It's kind of like asking a couple how often they have sex. Not only is it personal, but you will probably get a different answer from each participant! And of course, no one wants to appear a braggart, nor a loser.

But I'm curious. If 90% of traders lose money, does that statistic transfer into this forum? Or could it be that we are actually blessed with a high percentage of substantially profitable traders? I see a lot of intelligence here (beyond my level) but how about a dollar value? In the words of elite trader: "Are you a profitable trader?" That's what I want to know.

I propose a thread whereby anyone willing can brag about individual victories, cry about heavy losses, or simply reveal their long term performance. Bare your soul for the benefit of those who follow.

I will personally kick off the discussion with my own experience to date. If anyone else would care to contribute, here's to ya!
I added 6 at 60.25 add will be at 63.50 where I will add 6 more....targeting 58.25 first..have 9 working
Well That last trade was in honor of Mr. Negtive..T-Rex....Nice high Ticks to add on after the one minute range breakdown didn't reach my 56 target..but the add - ons hit the 58.25 quickly...I think the 56 will come...Philly fed at noon should bring some fire longs for me...Anyway I was sent a private email that showed the Advance and decline for the NYSE yesterday afternoon which is something that you can watch with TICK divergence. You can also see how those afternoon highs yesterday in the S&P where not followed higher by the Ad/dec or that was a good fade......hope some of this help
Anyone know where the Value area high is for today..? Answer: 1460.50, so you can see where and why I added Va low is 56.50 so this would be a good area to take some more off....Ok T-rex...your turn to post a I forgot, you are probably a vendor and can't. Or maybe you are afraid....

well I'm in again short from 60 even and first target is only 58.50.....I'm watching Dow lead out higher but not S&P and we just had a fairly good push up in Ticks......I think they're still lots of folks with sell stops sitting at 56.25 so that will be secondary target if this goes my way......
I added 3 more at 60.50..same target.....58.50
Once again the overnight gives me the target but the important thing is this...The Cash dow was up almost 30 points as the Cash S&P was only up about 1.24 points while this add on was done. The S&P should trade about 1 point for every 8- 9 points of Dow so that would have had the S&P up over three points which it was not. This tells you ( along with the fact that the dow futures where trading above their highs of yesterdays and the S&P wasn't) that the Dow was trying to lead. The TICK was also showing a nice divergence. Read Gary Smiths book "How I trade for a living" from 1998 I beleive. Anyway I will post a chart from yesterday which shows a nice adv/dec divergence compliments of an email buddy named Pat....

[Edited by - Admin on 02/15/2007 - Link added to book]
Bruce, I'm not sure if my numbers are right here but according to my calculations (and using all sessions data) today was the narrowest range for the DJIA in 6 trading days, for the YM is 55 trading days, and for the ES in 46 trading days. (This is an incomplete thought... I'm going to come back to this.)
Here is the chart from Valentines day...Notice the top bars ( blue) these are NYSE Adv/declines. They made a high early on and we never made a new high on the day but the S&P did go on to make a new high..( the lower candles are the S&P)….so add this to the Tick and Volume divergence and you may be able to come up with a few trade ideas. This is also an example of a market INDICATOR , an internal as opposed to an indicator derived by price so here is something that may work....

Click image for original size
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with that said and shown..let me add this....

If you are lazy and not willing to put in your own time and do your own research then you don't deserve trading profits. So to expect those of us who have paid our dues and put in our time to hand you the "keys" to the kingdom would be a bit much. I encourage anyone to follow two or three basic setups and watch them over time.

I say this because there are many out there who I feel just aren't cut out for trading, they expect to be handed everything on a silver platter and get disgruntled if they can't make it as a trader. I have provided here, along with the Pitbull setups a few fairly simple ideas that can start someone on their way if they are willing to put in some effort. I don't say this to brag because I am constantly evolving as a trader too and have bad days, trades and periods of time. It's important to find setups that you are comfortable with when you LOSE money so your brain can take it. You need to be able to stay in the game financially and mentally, otherwise you may end up needing to find another source of income.

Expecting or asking anyone to post their hard work or research I feel is rude and just plain lazy….If they voluntarily do this then that is a different story. Do your own research so when you make it as a trader you can feel proud of your accomplishments. You need to be responsible and have no one else to blame for your success or failure. Unfortunately there are no short cuts as some vendors may have you believe. Ok, enough of my “soapbox” chatter. I’ve made my point.


You may be right..I've noticed the VIX is down at real low levels too so I can't buy up here...I would like to see a higher open on Friday to sell into or a "first push up" and then get a sell to create an outside bar to the downside, but that may not happen..If I could get a good close I would try to hold short a bit longer but trying to call a top or bottom longer term can be costly. I look forward to your follow up...

Originally posted by day trading

Bruce, I'm not sure if my numbers are right here but according to my calculations (and using all sessions data) today was the narrowest range for the DJIA in 6 trading days, for the YM is 55 trading days, and for the ES in 46 trading days. (This is an incomplete thought... I'm going to come back to this.)

I can't remember where I was going with that comment. I picked up those figures from the New Daily Notes page but don't know how accurate they are. I thought that it was strange that the DJIA should be narrowest in 6 and yet the future based on that in 55 trading days...
Sure, I have no problem commenting. Sorry to hear you had a bad week and thanks for the kind words. I hope you are getting some value from these posts and glad to see you take responsibility for your trades and it sure sounds like you learn from others after investigating a methods effectiveness which is fantastic. That's what it's all about...

Anyway I have been "successful" since about the year 2000 but I define success as being able to follow a discipline, adapt to market conditions and make money while keeping my sanity. I started day trading in late 1997 and took a beating the firs 1.5 years or so...then I got better...for a In late 2001 I had my worst period as I had a new born at home and just didn't have my head in the own fault. Since then I keep evolving and have done well. I have a long way to go as the market is forever changing it's colors so I realize the need to be flexible and keep the market in it's proper context. What turned my trading around was having multiple contracts on and averaging into trades, this solved the fear and greed factor for me. I like daytrading a lot but lately ( last two years)I seem to be trying to hold positions longer as volitilty is lower and I can stomach that. I'm a fairly simple guy and I am conservative. I beleive slow and steady wins the race so I strive for consistency and make sure I follow rules that are comfortable for me. I don't beleive you have to make a certain amount of money to be considered a success as a trader. That's ridiculous as we all have different circumstances. Just because you think I have more knowledge or experience doesn't mean I am a better trader. This is why I try to encourage anyone to "make the setups your own" and do research.

As a side note I beleive it would be a greater value for me to post the ideas instead of my specific trades. I wouldn't want this to turn into a "posting and bosting " thing. I also beleve based on your comments that this isn't the thread for it. So I apologize for getting side tracked myself and taking this off of your original topic. I hope that helps and if you have specific questions I will be more than happy to answer them.

Originally posted by felix

[quote]One question, Bruce, if I may. When this thread was started, I was curious as to which contributors here were day-trading successfully. I have seen you put on some good trades. Of course you acknowledge that you have bad days too. But I'm curious if you are long-term successful.

Naturally, you have the right to remain silent, and I don't want to pry or put you on the spot publicly. But you have been at this a lot longer than I, and you have a lot more knowledge and experience with the markets. I'm wondering if your efforts have paid off for you. Care to comment?

To everyone: Have a great long weekend!