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Weekly pivot influence on first trading day


quote:
Originally posted by BruceM

...I have a friend who will only trade in the direction of the weekly pivot on the first trading day of the week....he uses it like a magnet...so for today he is only taking longs......his is by observation

I'm curious about testing the general theory of this. I'm typing as I think...

If we took the week's first trading day's opening price and measured the number of points that it traded in the direction of the weekly pivot point and also the number of points it traded away... We might be able to measure a statistical deviance in the direction that it trades. Problems with this theory are (1) the market has an upward bias in the long term (i.e. not symmetrical (2) Market Profile theory can replace this because we are probably trading towards the weekly Point of Control which is likely to be near the weekly Pivot Point.

Testing is difficult because we need to compute the first trading day of the week in case it is a holiday and also count the number of trading days in the prior week in case of holidays. For example, last week we had 3 trading days in the E-mini S&P500 because of Gerald Ford's day of mourning. This was an unexpected holiday that is not on the calendars.

What I am thinking of is running a test to see if a rolling 5-trading-day pivot point has any influence on the direction of trade for any particular day-of-the-week. For example, are Monday's more likely to be days where the price is "drawn to that pivot like a magnet" rather than any other day of the week. That should be easier to test...
Since February Bootsy!! I'd prefer to discuss it here so all could benefit but if you prefer I contact you via email I will do so.

Let me know!

Bruce...

Here are my weekly pivots for the coming week (7/23). Please let me know if you concur. Thanks in advance.
ES-1550; ER2-846; YM-13969; NQ-2056. I have found the discussion about the weekly pivots interesting and am trying to see how it works. A quick overwiew would be appreciated.
Hi Steve,

At this point in time I am only keeping track of how often the weekly pivot on the ES is being traded to. You can find the numbers here that I use for the ES. Your markets are there too!

http://www.mypivots.com/dn/

Please feel free to open this thread up to discuss ideas or strategies which utilize what seems to be a high probability occurence.

Bruce

quote:
Originally posted by steve

Here are my weekly pivots for the coming week (7/23). Please let me know if you concur. Thanks in advance.
ES-1550; ER2-846; YM-13969; NQ-2056. I have found the discussion about the weekly pivots interesting and am trying to see how it works. A quick overwiew would be appreciated.

Thanks Bruce. That's a very interesting site. I'll have to get in there and nose around a bit. A question: how you are playing the weekly pivot... do you take trades just in the direction of the weekly or is there another strategy you use. Also, do you use a monthly pivot?
Hello BruceM,

Yes lets discuss here so all can benefit. However, kindly contact me vial email so I can ask a few more questions and discuss other vendors,your experiences etc.

I would not want Daytrading to get into any trouble although I believe people should post bad sites, services, systems, rooms ( paltalk, hotcomm, micr etc.), trader calls/services and the like.

If any are good then make a note of them..and tell us with proof( trading stats) why they are good.

I came acroos this site a while back and BruceM post about 2-3 weeks ago.

On ER- emini er which I trade...I wait for hi or low to occur..so if waiting for hi..it take 2- 3 trading days to form..Example Friday July 13 862.50, july 16 861.40 and then Wed...859 or so. Options expiry made it more volatile.

However in the 1st 2 trading days...the mkt went down 5-7 pts...can't remember then came up. The big boys/market makers..cannot show hand they want to take down..so they take it down a bit bring up etc. On ER it never goes above the hi..on retest...so fare make touch or if it does by a tick or so.

On ES it has....but then also fails...YOU need to check.

Nonethless, after 2 or 3 trading days at the high level...it really breaks down....to get to the 15-20 pt 1 day drop...a la Friday.

In summary, I like the mkt to be at the extremes and then trade up or down to the pivot.

On ER last week...the pivot was 853.5 and it traded down from hi to it 3 times....

Hope this helps. I'm sure BruceM can provide a better way to trade this.

Regards,

Boots ( changed..give the boot to the mkt )

That site is part of this one...lots of goodies found around here.....I donot take trades only in the direction of the weekly pivot. The basic things I look at can be found in the Pitbull threads. Simple ideas. Sometimes I will try to hold on for a longer term moves if the weekly pivot hasn't been traded back to yet. Most times my "runner" contracts get stopped out as I pull up stops fairly quickly. I have never looked at the monthly pivot. I think its a good idea to structure risk on smaller time frames to target longer time frame objectives but I will also average in. This is ok to do if you don't violate your overall trade risk parameters.

An observation that I am currently exploring is 2.5 and 5 point penetrations of the weekly pivot as a filter. A work in progress but basically I am looking for continuation to the long side when we travel from below the weekly pivot and travel 5 points or more above it. The opposite for the short side...we start out above it but break it to the downside by 5 points or more....so selling rallies back towards the pivot would be prefered if this happens. Of course if you then penetrate it by 5 points to the upside then the bias shifts to long.

Any penetration that is in the 2.5 - 4.75 point range is "no mans land" and you can take any signal you get from your own methods. Anything less then 2.5 is considered to be holding as support or resistence depending on what side of the pivot your come from.

Fridays S&P was a mediocre example as the weekly pivot was 1547 and we broke it to the downside by 5 points so selling the rallies would have worked. I wasn't trading it for the record! If we came back above 1552 then buying the breaks would have been the bais.

Definitely a work in progress - use it at your own risk!!

Bruce
quote:
Originally posted by steve

Thanks Bruce. That's a very interesting site. I'll have to get in there and nose around a bit. A question: how you are playing the weekly pivot... do you take trades just in the direction of the weekly or is there another strategy you use. Also, do you use a monthly pivot?

Thanks, Bruce. Good information.
They tagged the weekly pivot from a higher open Today ( Monday). Nice little pop off 1547.50 which is 2.5 below the weekly pivot...I missed that one!!!
Yes...on ES went down from 1556 area to 1549.50..well lower...nonetheless your profit target is 1549.50...

My oscillation observation suggests that we may have one more upday...should be tommorrow...the trend is down...but the market makers and insiders...will not make is so easy for it to go down...they need to suck in some good number of retail daytraders long...

The low should be in July 26/27 max 30...usu..take 3 days to make final low....

On ES we should get down to 1526.50 and more likely below...test 1515 previous real swing low....and on ER we should test 824.60..previous real swing low....maybe down to 822.

Now these are the final destinations...and I am not saying the respective mkt will go down to those levels right away. Remember the mkt makers and the big boys camaflouge their moves...so they should take this up some number of points and then down....

From observation, you can use R4 on es and er as the final move up...usually on er if gets there...could be going up...and on es...could be reversal sign on fake out reversal...

good luck

Boots
caveat

for daytrading you can refer to Camarilla for final upside...R4 for Es and Er...if go above these pts then can be break out or fake break out...if go above..wait for it to come back down..to go short....again to hit the weekly pivot.

My final destinations are on previous posts....however, I'm not a REGISTERED GURU...lol...like the guys/gals you see on CNBC....so trade with caution on those final destiantions...but I see them....u may not.

Boots

Absolutely! The past 4 months has enabled me to collect some good data and I will continue to do so. Very good exercise!