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What would you do?


Imagine the following situation: You have toiled many years in the markets, generally as a net loser. Then your hard work starts to pay off. You discover 3 setups that, after significant backtesting, produce a 84% win rate defined as hitting at least a 2 point profit before hitting a 5 tick stopout. You then go from sim trading to real money and discover the setups confirm your backtesting for a couple of years with no glitches. You have many friends who also trade the markets with mixed results at best. Most are frustrated losers. Meanwhile, you are working the edge of the setups and maximizing the probabilities getting to the point where you can finally make a decent living and support your family comfortably by trading full-time. Your lifetime ambition has finally arrived. You are no longer beholden to the daily grind of the average person who has to answer to a boss. You feel your days and nights are one with God's own light.

Now, what would you do?

1. Write a book about these setups.
2. Give seminars to teach these setups for a fixed fee.
3. Create a Web based chat room and trading service for a fixed fee.
4. Share these setups with the trading community at mypivots.com.
5. Trade and not tell a soul what you discovered.
6. None of the above.
I would do 4.
Definitely number 4 without any hesitation.
Respectfully, it is unlikely that anyone would discover 3 market setups with a win rate of 84% as defined by a 2 point winner with a 5 tick stop. It doesn't work like this. Most people "teaching" trading a few years ago were teaching contiuation type patterns, now everyone with a chat room is a "fader".............unless you are a real quant and are crunching numbers in a way that I am simply not equipted to do, I doubt most "set ups" will work well over the long haul, IMHO, this is always about adaptation. This is not meant to be a criticism, but rather an observation based on experience. I look forward to being proven wrong if possible.
That depends, 1,2,3 require certain skills and marketing. How are you at marketing? Number 4 could provide you with valuable feedback, but just becuase you were able to achieve 84% results doesn't mean others will.
Numbers 1,2,3 make no sense for this person because then it takes them back into being a slave to humanity. You then have boss(es) again and it appears from your description that this person was trying to escape from being subject to bosses. If he/she is considering these options then #5 is unlikely. That leaves #4.
George has the soundest logic. Number 4 is the answer.
mahavishnu: What would you do?
I would do #5, although I would tell me wife if she had any interest. The reason is my wife is not going to compete with me in the marketplace as long as our goals are mutual.
mahavishnu: Do you find that you are more of a taker than a giver?
Not at all. People who know me say I'm very generous, compassionate and helpful. How about you?
My choice is #5.

I would present my findings to a well-capitalized hedge fund that specializes in futures trading and agree to a profit sharing arrangement. This eliminates all the risk and emotion from trading myself and still have a shot at making money.