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MP Bonds Feb 22




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alleyb,

Haven't look here for a while. I am glad you are still posting from time to time.

Big selling tails on Tuesday & Thursday, but the market is not going down more. What is your take for the current market? Are we looking for 115^00 to 121^00? Or is this just a setup for a big moves down as so many pundits are saying?

Luc


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alleyb,

Thanks for the chart.

When you look at the profiles, do you take into account the after hour and overnigy trades? Such as the spike on last Tuesday after hour and the overnight spike on Sunday? In both cases, the market was sold off from the peak to a more moderate level before the next day's open. Was that one of the reason you are expecting the market to move lower? Would tomorrow's US NFP affect your outlook?

Thanks and really appreciate your comments.
luc
Luc I take them into acount in my thinking but for the profile I only use the day session. There are occassional times I let the overnight influence my analysis but every time I do that then I find an element of subjectivity creeps back in. for example the recent hold em up attititude of bonds on the flight to quality vs stocks is a case in point for as stocks recovered then bonds failed to lose their bid b ut the levels in the profile which had been going nowhwere fast since 2/27 showed a neutral trade that just needed several days to complete



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thanks alleyb.

zb traded below 112^14 for a little while today. But I guess the bonds are still in limbo until after the fomc.

luc


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alleyb,

What would negate the bearish outlook? Going back up thru 112^06?

Thanks.
Luc
alletb,

Just a quick question. I know that you look at cti2 in your analysis. Does daily volume and open interest figure in your analysis?

luc
yes
alleyb,

You have fantastic call!

From the MP point of view, is the market oversold now? Or is weakness begets more weakness? For the last few weeks, the market seems to be slowly leaking downward with very narrow range days. Do we see patient buyers coming in?

Thanks for your posts.
luc