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Any statistics on this?


How often does the range of the Monday and Tuesday trading days get broken....? so far this week we have yet to break either the high or the low. It seems as traders we need to try and get on board the side WE think will get broken....

I have conflicting opinions as the market seems to want higher prices yet the weekly pivot hasn't been traded to on the downside//
1551 area and 1535 area will be interesting to see which one gets broken...I'm going to try and track the Monday - Tuesday Range break on an ongoing basis.......I'm curious to find out how often the following happens:

1)we break the high , low or both during the same week
2) If we can reach the range projections of one half the Mon- Tueday range added and subtracted from the high or low and what happens when we get there
3)If we can trade to a full Monday- Tuesday range projection


So with the market gapping up 9 points on a fed day at 1545 we are only 6 points off the Monday - Tuesday high.....

Personally I'd like to see selling but this is a fed day...the weekly pivot hasn't been traded to on downside....I'd like to see them run out the highs and then roll this over to downside after the announcement but thats for another thread.

With a current 16 point range so far this week that would put targets at 8 and 16 points above and below the current weeks highs and lows...so these would be


1559 and 1568 on upside

1527 ( just below weekly pivot ..how cool would that be..) and 1519 on downside

lets see what today brings...I know some will split the Mon-Tuesday range into quarters but I haven't seen any actual testing on this.
we broke out of both sides today. No surprise as it was a fed day...we hit 1558.75 on upside . still didn't get weekly pivot..I think selling tomorrows breakout of the first hour high is a good idea if we can get above the 1559 number...
I hope that I will be able to run the stats for this for you at some point in the future Bruce. I'm putting together a new database in the near future and will hopefully be able to pull this sort of information out of there.
They nailed the weekly pivot and the 1527 target on a gap down opening.....sure wish I was on board for bragging rights but wasn't.
/..sure seems to me that 1542 - 45 area needs to be cleaned up a bit so I'm leaning to a longside bias from down in this 28 area....so far low is at 22.50 so the full target hasn't been acheived at 1519 based on the Monday-Tuesday range..
quote:
Originally posted by BruceM



1559 and 1568 on upside

1527 ( just below weekly pivot ..how cool would that be..) and 1519 on downside

lets see what today brings...I know some will split the Mon-Tuesday range into quarters but I haven't seen any actual testing on this.

full target was achieved after the Monday - Tuesday low became resitence..here is a chart showing the Monday-Tuesday low and how the market reacted to it on Fed day and today

Click image for original size
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full target was achieved after the Monday - Tuesday low became resistence..here is a chart showing the Monday-Tuesday low and how the market reacted to it on Fed day and today

Click image for original size
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Here we are in only week two of this ongoing test....we have a current Monday - Tuesday range of 1526 at the high and 1494 at the low....Market is currently at 1519.75 in overnight. So for this week we have 32 points of range so far. I'll be breaking that range up into quarters and adding to the current high or subtracting from the current weekly low to get the following targets.

On Upside :

1534, 1542, 1550 and 1558

On Downside:

1486 , 1478, 1470, and 1462

I believe the Monday - Tuesday range gets broken a very high percent of the time. I'm curious to find out how often the other targets will get traded to once a high or low is broken.

Now for me from a chart standpoint it seems like the 1532 area is a high volume spot so that will be an interest zone ( 1532-1534 ). There's a gap at 1553 area so the 1550 - 1553 will be the next area.

On the downside the market would really have to bust through the 1506 area in order to send this down further. Then we have 1487.50 from a chart standpoint which is real close to the 1486 mentioned above.

There are those who use the first hour of a trading day and create targets from that range ( taken from Market Profile I think). This test will see if the Monday - Tuesday range has any significance on a weekly basis .

Bruce

So they brought it out to the downside and hit the targets perfectly...ok, almost as perfect as you could get in trading....

Great the way that 1506 became resistance after it was broken ...amazing how the 1487 area and then 1478 area played out........would really like to say I was in on that move but wasn't here to trade today.....I know what I think I may have done but it's too easy to trade "after - the -fact"..here is a chart

Click image for original size
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quote:
Originally posted by BruceM



On Downside:

1486 , 1478, 1470, and 1462


On the downside the market would really have to bust through the 1506 area in order to send this down further. Then we have 1487.50 from a chart standpoint which is real close to the 1486 mentioned above.







Thanks Bruce!
I missed this post for some reason...that would be great.thanks....some ideas I'm messing with for example:

What percent of the time will they reach a full , 1/2 or 1/4 target on a breakout when the Monday -Tuesday range is 80 % or more of the 10 day avergage WEEKLY range...?

May be an area to fade....just one of many ideas

.This obviousuly could apply to the hourly bars on the daily range...


quote:
[i]Originally posted by day trading.

I hope that I will be able to run the stats for this for you at some point in the future Bruce. I'm putting together a new database in the near future and will hopefully be able to pull this sort of information out of there.

I completely lost interest in this and judging by the fact that nobody missed it I will put it on hold for a while. Perhaps AlleyB can run the stats and save us some time when he has a chance