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Qualifying Prices with time!


I thought this was an interesting chart from last Thursday. You can see how they tried to break down from the hour lows quite a few times only to have a bit of a rally at the end of the day ( not shown on this chart)

This is a one minute chart and it shows how there where only four COMPLETE one minute bars that actually traded below the hour lows. The rest of them traded through the hour low price. So only 4 bars had highs and lows below the hour low. Not much time spent below that key price. I present this as it may help some qualify there support and resistance zones by using TIME. We can ask the question:

Is more time spent above our support zone as it gets tested? If the answer is yes then long may be the way to go. just an idea...

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Try this. Take the 1st 5minute bar HI and Low ... Watch price action for the first hour of the day ... IF prices have spent (considerably) more time below the 1st 5minute range ... expect a move to the downside all day. Vica Versa for longs.

Same sort of concept ... watching price over time for direction.
Spend more time macro trading and your analysis with this view point and price vis a vi time becomes easy.

Mastering time is very difficult. There are only 2 traders who know this well and you guessed it.......they don't have a website. Why would they bother with losers like us....tell all they million dollar secrets.

However, I have found a very easy way to get 20-30 pts a week trading on ES and ER...stress free, so why do I bother but micro trading and 5 min charts.

This fascination with daytrading and the endless courses and programs...is all fools gold. The only people winning are course purveyours and brokers immho.

As I mentioned, the 2 people who know time...have no stress...they dont care about price and they know the time is there to do a reversal.

But if you want to weigh in on price you need more patience and time will allow you the great profit every week. But you need patience and the ability to control your mind.......which most if not all daytraders do not..as they get stopped out.

I never get stopped out.......but I know price and then I know direction.

I only repeat this because I owe a great gratitude to Bruce M and daytrading.

Look a my previous post and get the epiphany. If you can't then you still not there......remember failure is part of succes..but you need to be heading in the right direction.

Merry Chritmas.

pips2007
quote:
Originally posted by pips2007

Spend more time macro trading and your analysis with this view point and price vis a vi time becomes easy.

Mastering time is very difficult. There are only 2 traders who know this well and you guessed it.......they don't have a website. Why would they bother with losers like us....tell all they million dollar secrets.

However, I have found a very easy way to get 20-30 pts a week trading on ES and ER...stress free, so why do I bother but micro trading and 5 min charts.

This fascination with daytrading and the endless courses and programs...is all fools gold. The only people winning are course purveyours and brokers immho.

As I mentioned, the 2 people who know time...have no stress...they dont care about price and they know the time is there to do a reversal.

But if you want to weigh in on price you need more patience and time will allow you the great profit every week. But you need patience and the ability to control your mind.......which most if not all daytraders do not..as they get stopped out.

I never get stopped out.......but I know price and then I know direction.

I only repeat this because I owe a great gratitude to Bruce M and daytrading.

Look a my previous post and get the epiphany. If you can't then you still not there......remember failure is part of succes..but you need to be heading in the right direction.

Merry Chritmas.

pips2007


pips, can you elaborate why you are indebted to BruceM and daytrading?
quote:
Originally posted by pips2007

..Look a my previous post and get the epiphany. If you can't then you still not there......remember failure is part of succes..but you need to be heading in the right direction.

Merry Chritmas.

pips2007


pip, thanks for making me read all of your previous posts

j/k but just want to let you know your sell high/buy method low is the same as one of KFish's trades.
OK .. I'll bite. Who or what is KFish?
quote:
Originally posted by pips2007
However, I have found a very easy way to get 20-30 pts a week trading on ES and ER...stress free

I never get stopped out.......but I know price and then I know direction.



pips2007,

I'm curious about a few things here, if you don't mind. Please don't take offense that I am asking these questions, as I am just trying to find trading truths myself, and when I hear of someone doing something at a much higher level than I can do myself, they are the ones to ask.

You are netting 30 points per week per ES contract? And you never get stopped out? My reason for asking is because even on full exchange margin for overnight holds of $3,600, you are making almost 42% per week? That's 2,167% per year return? And no stop outs?

If you are not holding overnight, and have daytrader margin as low as $300, the returns could be as high as 26,000%. Of course these are just examples so I can compare them to the type of returns I have in my own trading plan. As I said to hunterone when he described his returns, this type of return is just incomprehensible to me. Congratulations, because you are one of the best to ever trade, I can tell you that. Read the Market Wizards books and you'll see that.

When you crunch the numbers for the Russell you approach 86% per week on full overnight margin, which is about 4,457% return per year. I don't think you realize just how incredible what you have done really is. Although, after seeing your numbers, I now have a tremendous respect for what you have accomplished, I just don't think most of us can expect to discover what you have in 5,000 screen hours, as you suggested.

Myself, I have about 27,000 hours of time into my work, and I can't even think about returns like what is outlined above, and stop outs, well, they are a common part of my trading reality. But, since you are the one who worked this all out for yourself, I'm sure you don't want to give it all away, so we are all left to just hear about how good you are doing. Any chance you'll throw us a bone?

The one thing I wonder is why, when you described returns similar to hunterone, no one in here asked you to prove it. Unless I recall incorrectly, people wanted a lot from hunterone way before there was any hint he would teach anyone. When I read this thread I was expecting a similar course of action here, but no one challenged you on this. My point is not to get people to challenge you, but to understand why some people are attacked and some aren't.

I hope you didn't take anything here personally, I am just amazed at your level of trading, and wanted to let you know and ask a few questions. Thanks in advance for what I'm sure will be a helpful response.
jim, i did not read all you posted. But no offense taken...I get the gist of your point....

But I figured you would know the answer..people don't attack me because unlike you I'm not SELLING ANY COURSE OR HOW TO TRADE TO ANYONE....there is the difference. I don't need to impress anyone. I don't want their money through courses, seminars, free trials or whatever.

If you really want to know...I have 3 methods to forecast the high or low of the day and I've been doing this since Dec 07 and basically my prices are the very close to high or low. But, I'm not asking you to believe this, I don't really care...because I would not sell it or tell it to anyone..it took me thousands of hours to figure this out. And it works beautifully everyday.

You can easily get 20-30 every week if you know the direction. I challenge anyone just look at the chart and if you knew the upcoming mkt direction getting 20 pts or more on ES or ER is elementary. When I started this way of trading in July 07 the most I was down was $1,000 and then I made double...I had to wait 3 days on this occasion to get the profit....and yes I did hold overnight positions. 1 on Er and 2 on ES.

I know with good accuracy the turn date....and then I look at price and time. There are 2 people who are excellent with price and time..they do not have any websites....

So the way I trade is simple...I determine the direction the mkt is going to take for the week, while drinking my scotch, keeping in mind the dominant wave...not trend, but wave. Then I go long or short.

This is how I traded since july getting better along the way..till Dec 07 when I came up with a way to make even more money safer with my 3 methods of forecasting the daily high or low...no overnight positions...no indicators ( I never used them from July ), no fibs...although I like 50%....and yes they do have some merit...but all the stop runs happen at those pts as well.

However, I changed my trading methods a bit beginning of Jan as I look to get 6/10/20 pts a day.

I call these methods, Strange Brew, Dynamo Hum, Cosmic Slop. Well actually the real names are different, but I have to TM them first. Working for me everday magically. Would I ever sell this...never.

So to sum it up...I give or have given some clues here about my way of trading..it really is simple. However, I will never divulge what and how I know and I am not planning now or ever to hold a seminar, run a course or get on Paltalk with a free trial.

I'm not hunterone nor do I have anything against him.......I just trade and make money and sleep well at night...I don't need to impress anyone or ask for their money via courses, or free trials or whatever.

Now you know.

All the best to you Jim.



Thanks for the reply. I guess it is like I said, you are among the best traders to ever trade, with numbers like 20 points per day, but for us in here, it is nothing more than hearing what a tiny handful of incredibly talented people can do. I know I will never figure out anything like that, and I doubt anyone I know ever will. And as you've said, you'll never reveal it.

I guess my point is that I'm trying to find ways to constructively improve this forum as far as for newbies, and my thinking is along the lines of discussing trading techniques and such. Your viewpoint, as far as making a contribution, is that the best thing is for someone to study charts on their own and put their 5,000 hours in. You support that by explaining how it has been the best route for you.

I just thought that maybe your viewpoint on the merit in your approach is somewhat skewed because it seems you are not only exceptionally gifted, but were also able to find that holy grail for you. I really don't think that more than a tiny handful of people who took the approach you did would achieve results even remotely close to yours. Hence, I was thinking it may not be as practical of an approach as you think it is for the average Joe like myself and most of the newbies in here seeking ideas. I think that was really what I was trying to open up for discussion.

Thanks for the civil response.
Jim I said...6/10/20 pts a day...does my last contract get 20 all the time no., sometimes yes sometimes much less... But I do get 6 and 10 a day since december.

There is no holy grail...meaning every trade you take will reach all your goals..but there is a holy way to making money....

Every trade has a 50% chance of becoming a success ie profit, not 10 bucks but for ES sake lets say 4 pts on a trade. You need to skew the probabilities in your favour so it does not become a chance. How do you accomplish this? That is the question to be answered and then you get the holy way...close to the grail but nonethless very profitable.

After having lost between $80,000-$110,000 in trading loss and opportunity cost during the last 1.65 years and then becoming successful in the last 6 months, much more so in the last 2 months....I will tell you, I did what everyone else did...s/r levels, fibs, mkt profile( from a caller) on and on same old nonsense.

I found my method yes by looking at charts...and for the most part I was looking at them losing horribly....I hated indicators so I never went that way...but if money was that complicated to make...how come all those CTA, CFA's, mba's, financial planners, gurus cant make beans with their own money and lose OPM terribly....who really wants to get up and work for Goldman unless you making a few million....

money is simple to make....if you keep that in mind everything else comes into focus.

You say you have spent countless hours on charts....then I do not know how come you have not uncovered what I know. It seems you have spent more time on charts.

An example of a chart pattern that is simple but very effective and tried and true pattern is a simple 1-2-3 pattern. Anyone can use this pattern and make great money. Yes, its not daytrading....but trading nonetheless and money is the objective....

For a newbie it is an easy method to start with. Don't day trade financial indices trade commodites. Just look at financial indicies...look at a weekly and monthly and trade a 1-2-3 set up ..there was one recently from Dec to early Jan...and we down now 200 pts or more....could have bought a few cheap out of the money options....or just run one lot with a 10 or 20 pt stop...$500 or $1,000 loss, but now you sitting on tens of grand. How is that for easy...but you need patience, but its simple. Targets 50% rule.

Simple 1-2-3 patterns...look for them in commodities 30-50 markets or so. Paper trade these on these daily, weekly or monthly charts...see what you uncover. For an initial target..use 50%...that hits most if not all the time.

1-2-3 top or bottom on the weekly and monthly...75% of time their work great...and on monthly and weeklly usually a sure thing especially with a confirming triangle...just go and check the chart on ES, ER, YM in the last 2 months or so.

If you new...Don't day trade especially eminis on financial indicies...make money trading the way I say...with simple patterns 1-2-3 is the best....but nobody does it..cuz too simple...its wimpish...got to be more sexy...oh yeah, fibs, moving averages on and on. I made over $18,000 in the canadian dollar on one $700 option in the intial run up took a few months and more than double in the big move after the pullback towards $1.10...knew it would pullback....this a confirming signal too.

There you are...I did not give anything away, but how to make money simply in other mkts...this is the best advice for a newbie..put your daytrading prowess( on hold), trade options on commodities, and in the mean time look at financial indicies charts...for 6 months.

Within 6 months if you did it right...you should have had one $200-800 option turn to $20-40,000 in profit...now you got some capital...to daytrade ( start with $5-10k, do ES or YM first) and some money in the bank. During this 6 months you should have got 1 or 2 things from the chart and found a decent to good caller that can give you some entry and exit ideas...there you are and you always have your option trading to fall back on...

Simple, effective, easy plan....You can either do it the hard way I did or the easy way...your choice. But remember its about making money, not freedom on the computer and lkg sexy. And truth is trading options or 1-2-3 setups and the like is real freedom...daytrading is income replacement.

I wish somebody told me this over 2 years ago...would never have lost like I did....but everybody told me the same old same about daytrading and they were all wrong.







Jim - fair enough, thanks for your reply.