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Fuzzy Logic and Trading


A thread to discuss fuzzy logic and the using it to forecast the markets.
Bruce - this falls into the 'just for grins' catagory

i created a fuzzy logic program many many years ago (when dakota roamed the earth
)

this is what i have for the dow into the future

without patting myself on the back, u'd be amazed at my success rate

i can do other indexes too

have a good weekend



[file]dow.jpg,126,,0[/file]


Weekly forecast for the SPX - today it missed by a few points

The other charts are for the month of Jan 07

The SPX needs to close in Jan 07 above 1469 or will give a sell signal. We have not had a sell signal for 5 years



Click image for original size
No Description Entered




[file]SPX_chart.jpg,126,,0[/file]



[file]SPX_fuzzy_logic_chart.jpg,126,,0[/file]









Can you summarize in layman's terms how the fuzzy logic works and what it takes into account when creating the predictions?

it's a type of logic that recognizes more than simple truth or falses. in fuzzy logic there is a yes and a no and a probably. therefore, if you assign a value, to lets say, a particular geometric pattern such as a isoseles triangle of varing degrees you could insofar possibly get a truer interpretation of that pattern...huh?


maybe you remember me commenting about fibo 1.27 which is the square root of .618 and which is also the hypotenuse of a right angle? we all trade that isoseles whether you know or not

c ya at the bell

oh, and the disclaimer is that; 'this topic is for educational purposes only' !

very interesting gio...

oscillations are what its all about with a major wave or trend. By then end of the week high area may come Jan 9 or 10 we should be at 1445-1460 area on the ES Mar 08 contract.ER will be above 741 or there abouts....

Since everybody predicting gold to $1,000 I will go out on a limb and see gold at $700-675 come March-May 08. This is just a guess. Similarly Oil will come down, but hopefully will be in a sideways channel for a few months...low volatility then. With elections in Nov 08, I expect the r to go to 3.5 to 3% and maybe 2.75 by years end..they drop it fast and quick...beg with 50 basis pts next meeting and more 50 basis to come each other time.

The real drop in oil will happen in 2009 after the Dems win election. I just wait for the big news to tell me it going to $150 or some foolish nonsense then play it with options, puts. I watching the Cdn dollar as well..although it made the 50% retracement and popped up..I suspect it will test the $1.10 high but will do it slowly and I see a high of 1.15 maybe 1.20..oh yeah they going to drop the r here to.

As I differ on the high area for the dow...I see 28-38,000 range...in the next 4 years..till 2012. The low dollar will bring such huge profits to Americans companies....not seen in a long time. As interest rates drop, low dollar will send profits skyrocketing, and dow, s&p up, up ,up. The pundits have it all wrong........and watch everybody back in the good ole U.S.A...stock market..

Oil will drop fast in 2009 onwards and I suspect gold and silver will too...but not as bad as oil. Inflation will be contained and Bush will leave with having got all the multi multi tens of billions of dollars repayed back by the Saudis, Kuwaitis, etc from the 1990 war and ensuing protection monies. They repaid it all back now..with the high price of oil. Oh you don't know the Arabs had to pay the U.S. protection money....but were over 100 billion in the hole so Bush had to bail them out,how else the U.S. got its money back. Now the troops are going home or soon....and the Base moved to Qatar about 3 years ago from Saudi Arabia....Everything is planned.

Gold will zoom up and so will silver after the stock mkt crash...post 2012...but nobody will suspect the end of the bull run...as nobody suspected the beginning of the bull run in 1982.

These are million dollar opportunities in stock market in the next 4 years..up move and then great money making opps on the downside. Of course you can always play commodities every year and make great money ( options).....less stress than the stock market.

Now lets see how it unfolds.
Oil you say?

[file]CRUDE.jpg,126,,0[/file]
Thanks gio!
yeah thats what I think too..but I hope for a sideways channel for a while...from now till march/may 08...hopefully it goes above $100 but not by much and all the gurus and experts will be proclaiming oil is evaporating and China and India need it all on and on...

But a great chart..I put my money on your chart than the gurus...
Never seen one of these things that worked over time so I'll be curious to follow yours....I guess we need some standard to measure this...
quote:
Originally posted by gio5959

Weekly forecast for the SPX - today it missed by a few points

The other charts are for the month of Jan 07

The SPX needs to close in Jan 07 above 1469 or will give a sell signal. We have not had a sell signal for 5 years



Click image for original size
No Description Entered




[file]SPX_chart.jpg,126,,0[/file]



[file]SPX_fuzzy_logic_chart.jpg,126,,0[/file]











[quote]Originally posted by BruceM

Never seen one of these things that worked over time [quote][i]

Out of curiosity, where have you seen this type of stock market fuzzy-logic system before?

Or, do you mean you've seen 'Black Box' trading systems?

c ya at the bell






Very nice Gio!