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Market Profile Fades ... When to take.


Yesterday January 11 08 there were 2 very nice bounces on the ES when the market first reached the POC from Thursday and then the LVA from Thursday.

A long at 13:22 EST at the POC would have had 2 ticks of heat and an MFE of 21 ticks for a total move of 23 ticks.(this was the area I was looking to short, around 1414.50 ) Then the market rolled over and ...

A long at 13:50 EST at the LVA was good for 22 ticks with 1 tick of heat for a total move of 23 ticks. Symmetry anyone???

This fell just shy of where I was looking to short and if I had been paying closer attention to the length of the move off the bottom (in terms of ticks) I could have got into the short a little lower and not missed it.

Anyway - I am currrently using these MP Levels (HVA, POC, LVA) to give me an idea of a final exit target for my trades rather than to play for a fade ...

It would be a simple matter to play the fade - but when do you know this has a higher probabilty of working?

I'd say that if I were trying to play the fade off them I'd watch the market action at the first level (POC in this case) and if it worked be ready to fade the second. In my opinion - there were probably a lot of MP traders doing just that because there was a lot of buying interest when it reached the LVA witnessed by only 1 tick of heat when it reached the LVA.

Care to share some insights?

hi ,
could you plese tell me the way to learn how to trade using market profile.
i can read MP but i can not use it to forcast the price.
yhanks alot
I don't believe that Market Profile is used to forecast price. Instead it provides the concept of a statistical bell curve of probability within which to base higher than random probability trades.