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Anyone have a forecast for today?


2008/01/18 Friday
FWIW, my forecast is: day's high 10:50, low 16:00 EST.

my system's intraday squiggles were "right on" yesterday's tracing out SP index's big drop. (broke 18 month low)
Dave
Hi Dave,

Now that trading is just about wrapped up, nice call on the daily high/low. Pretty darn close. Out of curiosity, what types of criteria does your system use to predict the expected timing of the intraday high/low points? Thanks, and have a great Holiday weekend.

-Ian
Nice call Dave, takes real moxey to lay it out
Ian,
I currently use a average of several (4) math techniques that I have developed over years. My data base is a 10min 10yr SP index that I
update daily for free. During the day my RT_VIEW program plots the actual vs predicts.
RT_VIEW get's the SP index quotes REAL-TIME also for free (my secret link that can disappear anytime in the future I'm afraid).

My intent is to prove that the intraday market movement is more predictable than most think. In an attempt to do that I plan to start making selected day hi,lo time predictions here in this topic and follow up with a "current.gif" plot the next day which will overwrite the last "current.gif". (I dont want to a lot of daily gif files on my computer).

Note yesterday's predictions were pretty accurate in predicting a steep fall from the early high and then more or less a sideways movement the rest of the day to the close.
Plot below will be replaced sometime in the future for late readers not following along on a daily basis.. The initial plot is for Fri 18 Jan.

Click image for original size
davegemini Market Map for 1/18/2008 for ES.
dave - i admit i was skeptical up front when i first read your posting, but your forecast plot from yesterday is impressive. nicely done ! I am not concerned about the exact times of the turns forecast, but am impressed with the forecast getting the basic structure correct.

what is the approximate probability of accuracy, meaning the forecast comes reasonably close what percentage of the day's ?
quote:
Originally posted by davegemini

...I plan to start making selected day hi,lo time predictions here in this topic and follow up with a "current.gif" plot the next day which will overwrite the last "current.gif". (I dont want to a lot of daily gif files on my computer)...

Dave,
I encourage you to upload the gif files to the forum and give them unique names based on the day. That way others can read this topic a few days later and the chart will still be relevant to what traders have commented on.

It is easy to do this:
  • Rename the gif file locally to ES20080118.gif

  • When creating a new topic or reply to one you'll see an Upload and Attach link below the Message box. Click the Upload link.

  • Use the Browse button to find the file on your local computer and then click the Upload button.



I've uploaded your Friday file in this manner above.
Dave,

Good luck and it's great your posting charts
DAY TRADING,
I tried to upload a experimental gif for last thursday and got rejected again by message saying website doesnt like it.

Can anyone confirm your technique works for them?

Dave
Dave,

On Friday I had the ES hitting 1320.25 at 10:45cst

I see we're close

Good trading



[file]ES.jpg,126,,0[/file]


quote:
Originally posted by davegemini

DAY TRADING,
I tried to upload a experimental gif for last thursday and got rejected again by message saying website doesnt like it.

Can anyone confirm your technique works for them?

Dave
Dave, All the members who have images of charts in their posts are able to upload so there are a lot of them. What is the exact error message that you're getting? Give us some clues and we'll solve it for you. What browser are you using?
day trading,
I have reason to believe that one of my upload tries was successful but was unfortunately a result after the thursday data was incorporated into my system and thus isnt a true predict chart.
If you see it, be my guest and delete sp20080117.gif (I would delete it except I dont know how).
Can I upload OVER it a true predict chart with the same name?

I am using IE7 with Windows XP upgraded with RC1 SP3.
Dave
That 10:30am low forecast was impressive Dave.

Thanks for sharing your work with us here, hope to see you return again soon !