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A question for futures traders



I am curious to find out if anyone else thinks this could be a help to their trading.

My premise is that the market has 3 major groups of participants- Institutions, retail and speculators. The institutions are the biggest participants and move the market the most. Retail participants are the 2nd largest group and also are important to major moves. Speculators are traders like us that are trying to make money off the moves of the other two groups.

So, knowing what the institutions and retail people are can definitely be an advantage.

I think I have found a way to determine what the other 2 groups are doing in real time- I wonder if others think this would be helpful to their trading?

If this makes sense to others, my thought is to open room and share this info with others real time. This would not be for "newbies". It would be more for those that have a trading method and would like to increase their profitability. I'm not interested in calling trades but to provide, what I think is the "missing link" to profitable trading. This would not be an altruistic endeavor, if I can share it successfully with others I would end up charging for the service.

I am asking in this forum because I think the participants here act in a more professional and serious manner than most of the other trading forums. (Please don't prove me wrong)
I vehemently disagree, as far as I am concerned the market is a random set of events that people overlay with some kind of "story" (read methodology) that helps them overcome irrational, but real fears of losing money.

For analogy's sake I liken it to the story about an alien that lands on earth without any knowledge whatsoever and all he has is the ability to light a fire. He is near a landfill and ventures out and collects some broken pool cues, a circular wooden end table, an old wagon wheel, some bowling pins and brings it all back to his camp and lights it on fire. It all burns well and he stays warm all night and in the morning realizes that he needs to go out again and collect more. He then reflects on what he collected and comes to the conclusion that... not that wooden things burn, but that round things burn. Although he is wrong in his conclusion he still goes out and collects paper plates, old vinly albums, and some tires and they all burn, reinforcing his thesis that round things burn. He goes out on the third night and retrieves what he believes is the coup de grace, a cast iron manhole cover and upon finding it brings it back only to find that it doesn't burn. Puzzled,he reconsiders his "methodology" and amends it to read round things burn, but real heavy round things don't burn. He eeks out a living finding round things and enough burn for hinm to never alter his basic, albiet totally false, tenet.

The above analogy is how I see all trading methods, we as traders are never going to find out "that wooden things burn" or what really drives the market. We will just keep trying and not unlike the alien above, continue to alter our story, "methodology" to make it fit a random set of events that as of to date nobody, at least nobody able to prove with empirical data, can solve the riddle of the market. As you can see I am as full of **** as last years bird's nest, but it is free.
So, why do you bother to trade at all, personally? Based on what you are saying, there is no way to make a consistent profit, given the market is totally random. Seems like you are wasting your own time trying...
Wait a second, OK, I just realized I just got punked. This is the same Bruce posting on the next topic over his levels on the ER2, and how amazing they are at showing the turning points, all posted right after the open. So, either all the above is the punk, and he got me to think he was serious about that random stuff, or we are all about to get punked in the other topic, after we see many posts and he shows how incredibly well the ER2 uses those lines, then he jumps up and says 'Suckers! It's all random. See, it seemed to move off lines that have zero meaning (given it's all random), and I got all you suckers to think something was really going on. See what chumps you all are...' So, now I wait to see if I was the chump, or all of us. It can't be both ways, the above post is in direct conflict with the ER2 posts. Hmmmm.
Some of you guys are acting like children, TI anon have some angle to improve trading profits and came out to show us what he has, but in my opinion he was all over the map and fail to gave me any indication of an entry point. maybe if he called the trades?


And that is only my opinion.........
I never said it was futile to trade, I also said I was full of ****, you need to drop the confrontational stuff (me thinks you do protest too much), those were my opinions, just like the great religions of the world, all are wrong or all but one is wrong, you figure it out. I have my own belief system and it works for me.
As for the levels they are what they are. I just post prospectively since I am not here farming for clients $$$$$$
quote:
Originally posted by inventor

Some of you guys are acting like children, TI anon have some angle to improve trading profits and came out to show us what he has, but in my opinion he was all over the map and fail to gave me any indication of an entry point. maybe if he called the trades?


And that is only my opinion.........



Inventor, T1 wanted to create a room in which he would call out information (like a broadcaster at a basketball game and all the listeners were on the radio rather then in the gym watching the game)that was known only to him for a monthly fee. It was very harmful to his cause not to demonstrate that he (forget anyone else) could trade successfully with his own edge--that was his undoing and the reason no one had interest in his service. In essence, he failed to show it had value.

Furthermore, he did a very poor job of communicating the signals and was either very nervous or confused at times which didn't help matters.
quote:
Originally posted by topgun

quote:
Originally posted by inventor

Some of you guys are acting like children, TI anon have some angle to improve trading profits and came out to show us what he has, but in my opinion he was all over the map and fail to gave me any indication of an entry point. maybe if he called the trades?


And that is only my opinion.........





Inventor, T1 wanted to create a room in which he would call out information (like a broadcaster at a basketball game and all the listeners were on the radio rather then in the gym watching the game)that was known only to him for a monthly fee. It was very harmful to his cause not to demonstrate that he (forget anyone else) could trade successfully with his own edge--that was his undoing and the reason no one had interest in his service. In essence, he failed to show it had value.

Furthermore, he did a very poor job of communicating the signals and was either very nervous or confused at times which didn't help matters.



thank you that is exactly my point topgun...........



quote:
Originally posted by Bruce Johnson

I never said it was futile to trade, I also said I was full of ****, you need to drop the confrontational stuff (me thinks you do protest too much), those were my opinions, just like the great religions of the world, all are wrong or all but one is wrong, you figure it out. I have my own belief system and it works for me.
As for the levels they are what they are. I just post prospectively since I am not here farming for clients $$$$$$


Sorry, didn't think anything I said was confrontational. I'll just stop posting to this topic, that will solve it all.
I read a few of the previous posts and thought I would enter the fray. I think just about every opinionated trader here has expressed morsels of truth. Opinions hold no definitive truths though, because even if they are logical and well reasoned, there will always be exceptions to the rule. I come to this conclusion after working in the trading industry for a about a decade. I manage and execute orders for CTAs, hedge funds and individual investors and I hear their opinions everyday of the week, and even though many of these individuals trade the same markets, their perceptions are vastly different. They are smart people too, but in trading, the market doesn't care how smart you are. The markets often fool smart people who make a few savvy trades. Do any others agree with what I saying here? What I see in this forum is alot of opinionated traders/posters.
Yes, you make a lot of sense, but what is the signifance of your point? Do you have a lot of truisms from your vast experience that you can share with the community?
T1, rome wasn't built in a day,don't be discouraged by any one who seems to shout the sky is falling in every one of their posts,take it with a grain of salt,that's just how the world is at present