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A question for futures traders



I am curious to find out if anyone else thinks this could be a help to their trading.

My premise is that the market has 3 major groups of participants- Institutions, retail and speculators. The institutions are the biggest participants and move the market the most. Retail participants are the 2nd largest group and also are important to major moves. Speculators are traders like us that are trying to make money off the moves of the other two groups.

So, knowing what the institutions and retail people are can definitely be an advantage.

I think I have found a way to determine what the other 2 groups are doing in real time- I wonder if others think this would be helpful to their trading?

If this makes sense to others, my thought is to open room and share this info with others real time. This would not be for "newbies". It would be more for those that have a trading method and would like to increase their profitability. I'm not interested in calling trades but to provide, what I think is the "missing link" to profitable trading. This would not be an altruistic endeavor, if I can share it successfully with others I would end up charging for the service.

I am asking in this forum because I think the participants here act in a more professional and serious manner than most of the other trading forums. (Please don't prove me wrong)
Yes, use a computerized system if you know how to develop one and let the numbers take care of themselves. I have no personal investment philosophy. It has been my experience that if you want to improve the precision of your trading, don't color the market with your opinions, philosophies, explanations, methodoligies, etc.

Look at something called TradingBlox. Search it on Google. Its good.
Are you guys/gals going to have a great holiday?
I hope so. See you next week
I want to put closure to this chapter. I wrote T1 and explained in some detail why I thought his fears of losing his edge by teaching a few people his signal was misguided and here is his reply:

"I understand your point regarding edge dilution. However, there are more concerns than just that....1. being certain a confidentiality agreement is honored...2. the time and effort needed to teach someone.....3. the cost- I doubt seriously if you would be willing to pay what I would need to get to make it worth my while and even if you were, you might be upset with the value received. An edge can be harmed by more than just the entry- there is the time taken a way from trading, there is the attitude of the trader diverted from concentration and the responsibilty that can weigh on one's mind when concerned for a student's progress and assimilation of the material.

As I have stated in the past, I don't need aggrevation in my life. The thought of a "news" type service seemed to be the way to go, hence the test. I thank you for your participation in that effort."


My final takeaway: If I had a indicator/trigger that consistently yielded a 95% win rate, with a 6 tick stop, I would (1) mortgage the house and everything else I could get my hands on, instead of trading a measly 5-10 contracts, or (2) sell the whole thing to the highest bidding hedge fund or investment bank and eliminate the stress and aggrevation of trading to earn a living and have some fun enjoying more leisure time and doing the things that only money can buy. The last thing I would do is start a chatroom with minute-by-minute moves of retail and institutional traders for a small subscription fee. But that's just me. I might not be the most practical guy in the world.


Initially, as I stated, I was willling to give T1 the benefit of the doubt and not pass early judgement. But now, after more disclosure on his part and spending an entire week in his room, I think there is something inconsistent with the stated motives of his "experiment" and other facets of his trading he disclosed. Just one man's opinion. You can draw your own conclusions if you care.
I will; hopefully, for the final time, explain my thinking and motivation in what I did.

Trading, when done right, is a lonely business. In order, to stay in touch with the outside world, I hang out, during the trading day, in room that is devoted, for the most part, in trading certain Market Profile setups. I do not trade those setups,however, I do find that Market Profile is important to my trading.

Day after day, I see people take trades, whether real or imaginary, and end up losing money and the will to trade. I am convinced that does not need to happen-they are missing an important piece of the puzzle. I was hoping that by being able to offer a "news" type service that would fill in that missing piece. I would have an enjoyable place to hangout in during the trading day and they would finally become profitable.

This hinged on my ability to disseminate the information in a precise and timely manner. Thus, I came up with the idea of this experiment-to see if I could do it and if others would find it useful. I had no way of knowing the amount of effort needed or toll it would take on me. It was very draining both mentally and physically-to the point that I know the effort on my part is not worth it.

As to the teaching, topgun, actually explains it best. I know that when I am tired of trading I will be either able to sell my "edge" or write a book describing it and make a sizable sum giving lectures. So, it makes little sense to me to teach the method, until that time comes.

As to the size I trade-I trade the size I trade based upon what I want earn from my trading and the risk I am willing to assume at anyone time. I said, when asked, 5-10 because that was what I was trading during the experiment. I knew my attention would be distracted and didn't want to expose my self to an unexpected loss.

I enjoy what I do, except for loneliness, and take my leisure time very seriously. I hope this answers any lingering curiosity and speculation.

Believe what you will, as for me- I know what I know....The End
T1, I don't doubt your honesty. However, I sense there is a bit of talking out of both sides of your mouth, so to speak.

On the one hand, you seem emotionally affected to see the masses of traders lose money and you want to make them profitable, but on the other you wanted to charge for that service rather than doing it for free. Why would such a successful trader like yourself who, deep in his heart, wanted to help other traders who were less fortunate and yet satisfy your other need for comraderie, look to get a couple of hundred bucks a month from these lost souls? Hard to believe with a 95% win rate and the profit your making day in and day out, you need the extra money.

Also, if you want to maximize the value of your edge, selling the whole thing now rather then later is the way to go. Markets can and do change and nothing is absolute. Forget about giving lectures or making a killing from a book--if your edge is as powerful as you submit, it will dissapate in the wink of an eye when money chases it. You of all people should know this, since one of your fears to teach even a handful of traders (who in the aggregate wouldn't exceed much more than 100 contracts per trade) was losing this edge.

Lastly, you talk as if you really have found the Holy Grail. Congratulations, you're the first one.


Where can I find the expected crude inventories info. prior to their release?
HEy guys I am new to the futures trading world. do any of you guys trade futures on a Mac? If so what software do you use? I am trying to figure out which broker dealer to open an account with.
quote:
Originally posted by jh_nyc

HEy guys I am new to the futures trading world. do any of you guys trade futures on a Mac? If so what software do you use? I am trying to figure out which broker dealer to open an account with.

i don't know how to use a mac and a lot of firms systems aren't compatible with it ,Think or Swim is mac compatible and they have great charts for free with acct
T1, rome wasn't built in a day,don't be discouraged by any one who seems to shout the sky is falling in every one of their posts,take it with a grain of salt,that's just how the world is at present