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Panic Not


I'm new to T.A. forecasting, I don't use Market Profile and rely only on a handful of lagging indicators to confirm what I already anticipate going only on price action in swings. I have a pattern and so far it works without fail no matter how long or short-term.

Here's where I stand in regards to the markets presently:

We're going to level off here and on the chop work our way to back to 69 even in the S&P [ES]. Sellers will hold and with equal measure buyers will lose control to create a new low. But watch for sellers exhaustion in volume spikes, short covering and the overzealous wanting to go long too early. Wait for it to iron out, at around 50, is the only place for buyers to hang their hat, and by the skin of their teeth at that.

We'll then explode to the upside faster and more vertically than we saw from 1441 down here with Absu, to 1450. I expect the nominal or even catastrophic retrace along the way, and I'm not saying we'll get to 1450 overnight or even remain in control of this uptrend correction from last year, but we'll break and hold the 50% resistance grid from 1586, no matter how short-lived.

Day trades? The cards are stacked against you if you aren't aware of where you're at in this short-term bear breach compared to the bull run. Sure you'll take a scalp or two, with Market Profile's help, but I wouldn't count on a winning week.

ES 1450 is a bold forecast.

Personally, I plan to keep an eye on that resistance level at 1370.

quote:
Originally posted by Xuanxue

Here's where I stand in regards to the markets presently:

We're going to level off here and on the chop work our way to back to 69 even in the S&P [ES]. Sellers will hold and with equal measure buyers will lose control to create a new low. But watch for sellers exhaustion in volume spikes, short covering and the overzealous wanting to go long too early. Wait for it to iron out, at around 50, is the only place for buyers to hang their hat, and by the skin of their teeth at that.

We'll then explode to the upside faster and more vertically than we saw from 1441 down here with Absu, to 1450. I expect the nominal or even catastrophic retrace along the way, and I'm not saying we'll get to 1450 overnight or even remain in control of this uptrend correction from last year, but we'll break and hold the 50% resistance grid from 1586, no matter how short-lived.


Well, here's 1350. So far, paragraph one was dead on. Now I'm watching for that 1450. That would really be something to see, and I'll be the first one to take my hat off to XuanXue if it plays out.
Xuanxue: aren't we going to bounce @ the 1350.75 area and continue down to 1339.25 on the ES?
quote:
Originally posted by redsixspeed

Xuanxue: aren't we going to bounce @ the 1350.75 area and continue down to 1339.25 on the ES?



DT banned the guy I think. They butted heads. That besides Xuanxue didn't seem the type to pass up an opportunity to gloat. All due respect and all.

I will say a whole lot of people didn't trust their own judgements on the trade and sold off in droves. I'm flat is all I know.
quote:
Originally posted by redsixspeed

Xuanxue: aren't we going to bounce @ the 1350.75 area and continue down to 1339.25 on the ES?


redsixspeed,

Do you have a reference link for that 39.25? I can't find anything but what I quoted above, up from the 50 area. If you can find anything that shows a drop from 50 please post it. Thanks. I just want to follow along with the call.
Jim: No link just hard work trying to find where you guys are :)
I found overlay fibos help me make a decision where the market might go.
The 1350.75 area was @ the mean of my overlay, we need to close a 15min
under this area to go on down
redsixspeed,

I am just trying to follow Xaunxue's market call. I thought you were reiterating what he said, and if so, I missed where he said it would bounce a little from his 1350 area, then roll to 39.25, and then make the move to 1450. I see now you were actually asking him if a roll to 39.25 wasn't likely. Sorry for the confusion.

So, if I have it correct, we are still expecting a move off 1350 to 1450, by his call. But now that we are at 1340, I'm not sure at what point the call is invalidated (at what point would the long no longer be considered), and since he is banned now, we can't ask him. I guess we'll just have to watch it and make our own best estimates as to what he would say on that if he were here...
Now I hope Xaunxue is correct this would truly be a great ride to 1450 :))
Thanks for talking with me Jim

Ben
Do you think I did the wrong thing banning him? Would you guys like me to let him back in again?
I'm not sure what the invalidation point is for that 1350 call, but since it's now at 1335, closing at the low of the day and solidy under that 50% retracement, it is far beyond the range of what I could use for a potential trade area off of 1350. I'm not sure what Xaunxue's range around that 1350 is, so all I can speak for is what I need for one of my own areas.

It is interesting to note that although many, many people on TV are talking about this 50% area like it is the be all end all area, the DOW is actually just about at its .786 retracement area, having pretty much hit its 50% area on 5/27, and taken it out on 6/3. And some stocks, like MER, have taken out the March low (for most financials the March low was lower than the Jan low) as early as last Friday. I think, and this is all just an opinion, that the 50% retracement isn't going to be of much significance in this case, given the placement of some other key indices and issues. We sure are overdue for a bounce, but when that comes, who knows. I posted my lower areas of interest already. Time will tell.
quote:
Originally posted by redsixspeed

SPQR/Xuanxue: I feel so used. lol :)) Now please answer if you would the question I put to you on 6/10/08



quote:
Originally posted by redsixspeed

Xuanxue: aren't we going to bounce @ the 1350.75 area and continue down to 1339.25 on the ES?



As it stands I called three winning trades in one movement. My trying to predict movements beyond one was a fool's errand, it turned out. That is doing so with only a decade's worth of data in esignal. heh Seriously, despite my tauting to the contrary, I, too, know not where the markets are at.

I called 1350 based on two premises: a) I knew sellers were trying to breach the arm at 1330, and b) I didn't think they'ld succeed. 1350 was a decent area of control for buyers from Feb. to March of this year but was wearing thin. Strong enough however to get a bounce and regain control, though. I knew the 38% support grid from 1253 to 1441 would be broke but didn't think sellers would manage to control it. 1350 was the only answer for me.

Buyers have at least for now gained control of the 50% support grid, but that strong move to the downside above Thursday's high is telling the bears aren't done. I don't know. Sellers had free reign of this stretch to 1325 in one day's trading on April 11. Then buyers took it 1441.

At this point a breach attempt at 1325 seems imminent. Will it hold? If not will 1310 hold? If we do get below 1310, it's no man's land and tells us that the markets were overbought at 1586 and has shifted to an area of correction to the extreme. On the other hand if this year's entire movement is the creation of a beginning bull trend's first arm, an attack on 1250 isn't an unreasonable assumption. Obviously if we breach 1250 we stared too long into the abyss and it answered. There are no limits to how low this could go.

I'm only trading intraday charts until I know with certain clarity how 1225 reacts.

Then, 50% may have held. We'll just have to wait and see.