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Panic Not


I'm new to T.A. forecasting, I don't use Market Profile and rely only on a handful of lagging indicators to confirm what I already anticipate going only on price action in swings. I have a pattern and so far it works without fail no matter how long or short-term.

Here's where I stand in regards to the markets presently:

We're going to level off here and on the chop work our way to back to 69 even in the S&P [ES]. Sellers will hold and with equal measure buyers will lose control to create a new low. But watch for sellers exhaustion in volume spikes, short covering and the overzealous wanting to go long too early. Wait for it to iron out, at around 50, is the only place for buyers to hang their hat, and by the skin of their teeth at that.

We'll then explode to the upside faster and more vertically than we saw from 1441 down here with Absu, to 1450. I expect the nominal or even catastrophic retrace along the way, and I'm not saying we'll get to 1450 overnight or even remain in control of this uptrend correction from last year, but we'll break and hold the 50% resistance grid from 1586, no matter how short-lived.

Day trades? The cards are stacked against you if you aren't aware of where you're at in this short-term bear breach compared to the bull run. Sure you'll take a scalp or two, with Market Profile's help, but I wouldn't count on a winning week.

day trading: To allow Xaunxue back in?....no problem here.
His forecast did indeed seem way off, at first glance. Did he mean for there to be a bounce off of 1350? What did he mean when he said wait for it to iron out around 1350? That we went from 1335 and are battling to control 1350 in three moves has me dumbfounded. Yes I think Xuanxue has earned the right not be bothered over petty differences, and obviously has some experience to share.

Let him back in?
I want to add a little something here. I don't want to address specifically whether or not any specific person should be banned or not. In other words, it is Guy's decision in any given case. What I wanted to just have everyone consider is what kind of forum do we want to have? I'd prefer one where we all respect each other, and we take a constructive approach to sharing things here. I, for one, am very appreciative of all Guy does to provide this forum for us, and I think showing him due respect for that is also appropriate. Now, keeping in mind I am not in any way voicing a specific opinion on Xuanxue in this case, read the topic that caused this stir:

http://www.mypivots.com/forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=3015

Is this the way we want people to respond in this forum? Is this the way we want Guy to be treated? I don't think we should take into account how much a person might be able to contribute and then allow behavior that we otherwise wouldn't accept because of what they potentially could offer. Sounds like what we put up with in tennis in the 70's (not mentioning any names there, either...).

What I am trying to get across is that I think we should all think over what we want in this forum, and then ask that members act appropriately, regardless. This should apply across the board, regardless of if the person is a newbie or the top trader in the world. A forum without respect is of no use to me.

I'd like for us all to go forward with an idea of what we want in here, irrespective of any decision in this specific case, so it can continue to be the great forum that it has been so far. Thoughts?
I was not aware of these comments and I certainly do not understand them
I've been lurking here for quite some time and have only just decided to register and contribute based on Guy's and Xuanxue's exchanges and Xuanxue's subsequent banning. Xuanxue was abrasive, but then, Guy did immediately put him on the defensive as soon as he joined the group and started posting. By the time the post filled with mutual defamation rolled around Guy was already thoroughly under his Xuanxue's skin. Considering all that were involved in conversation since Xuanxue started posting were moderators and admn. the banning was a self-created prophesy. Everybody who has a modicum of intellectual honesty about them should be aware of that.

There's a degree of testing that's always evident in technically related forums, and rightly so, but that Xuanxue couldn't take it or Guy couldn't stand to have his authority challenged is each their own problems to deal with - it shouldn't be the group's as a whole.

Xuanxue was respectful at the first, until he was disrespected.

Something to keep in mind for future dealings.

Sorry, I have a couple more cents to kick in. Don't think I'm trying to take Guy's side or anyone's side, I'm just trying to present the facts. There was actually another thread that came first on the rollover question here:

http://www.mypivots.com/forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=3007

I think Guy was very respectful there, and didn't seem to be goading him at all, or testing him. Rollover, and the e-mail I get from MyPivots, which has saved me a few times, is serious business. Accidentally trading the illiquid contract can really nail you, especially if you are new to trading. I think he just wanted to point out to the many readers, lots of who are newbies, that the wrong rollover date was posted. That's what started the problem, it seems.

Again, I'm not on one side or the other, I just want the forum to stay positive, and part of that may be admitting if one makes an error and being humble about it, having it be no big deal (because it isn't a big deal). I make errors all the time, we all do, we are human. It doesn't have to become a big thing, or put a strain on our forum. Hopefully, this helps everyone, what I'm saying in this thread, to think about how we can all make this a better place. Thanks for the comments so far.
I would love to introduce more democracy when banning someone. In the case of Xuanxue I did it based on a number of factors including (but not only) the exchange we had here on the forum. Because spammers and scammers read what we write here on the forum I need to be secretive about some of the "tools" I employ when electing to ban someone.

Getting back to democracy, I think that it would be a great feature if each of us could vote negatively or positively on each other. In turn, someone with a high positive ranking would have a more influential vote when ranking someone else. It's unlikely that these "personality rankings" would be made public but it would help the administrators of the forum to understand who was being helpful and unhelpful. Google use this type of algorithm in their Page Ranking when they decide which page to list in a search. I've seen some forums have this feature but this one doesn't have it yet.

I get no joy out of butting heads with someone or banning them and often view it as a personal failure if I've been unable to resolve a conflict. However, there are enough people with other agendas that arrive here that wish to unfairly profit off us that we need to take unpleasant steps to protect ourselves.
Another thing that readers should realize is that SPQR and Xuanxue are the same person. She (or he) appears to have returned level headed and while she contributes rationally without insulting others she's welcome to stay.

Perhaps SPQR you can tell us a little bit about yourself and your trading methods so that we can understand why you make the type of calls that you do...
quote:
Originally posted by day trading

Another thing that readers should realize is that SPQR and Xuanxue are the same person. She (or he) appears to have returned level headed and while she contributes rationally without insulting others she's welcome to stay.

Perhaps SPQR you can tell us a little bit about yourself and your trading methods so that we can understand why you make the type of calls that you do...



I've been found out.


All in due time, D.T. All in due time.

Apologies, and thanks.
SPQR/Xuanxue: I feel so used. lol :)) Now please answer if you would the question I put to you on 6/10/08
quote:
Originally posted by redsixspeed

SPQR/Xuanxue: I feel so used. lol :)) Now please answer if you would the question I put to you on 6/10/08



quote:
Originally posted by redsixspeed

Xuanxue: aren't we going to bounce @ the 1350.75 area and continue down to 1339.25 on the ES?



As it stands I called three winning trades in one movement. My trying to predict movements beyond one was a fool's errand, it turned out. That is doing so with only a decade's worth of data in esignal. heh Seriously, despite my tauting to the contrary, I, too, know not where the markets are at.

I called 1350 based on two premises: a) I knew sellers were trying to breach the arm at 1330, and b) I didn't think they'ld succeed. 1350 was a decent area of control for buyers from Feb. to March of this year but was wearing thin. Strong enough however to get a bounce and regain control, though. I knew the 38% support grid from 1253 to 1441 would be broke but didn't think sellers would manage to control it. 1350 was the only answer for me.

Buyers have at least for now gained control of the 50% support grid, but that strong move to the downside above Thursday's high is telling the bears aren't done. I don't know. Sellers had free reign of this stretch to 1325 in one day's trading on April 11. Then buyers took it 1441.

At this point a breach attempt at 1325 seems imminent. Will it hold? If not will 1310 hold? If we do get below 1310, it's no man's land and tells us that the markets were overbought at 1586 and has shifted to an area of correction to the extreme. On the other hand if this year's entire movement is the creation of a beginning bull trend's first arm, an attack on 1250 isn't an unreasonable assumption. Obviously if we breach 1250 we stared too long into the abyss and it answered. There are no limits to how low this could go.

I'm only trading intraday charts until I know with certain clarity how 1225 reacts.

Then, 50% may have held. We'll just have to wait and see.