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Panic Not


I'm new to T.A. forecasting, I don't use Market Profile and rely only on a handful of lagging indicators to confirm what I already anticipate going only on price action in swings. I have a pattern and so far it works without fail no matter how long or short-term.

Here's where I stand in regards to the markets presently:

We're going to level off here and on the chop work our way to back to 69 even in the S&P [ES]. Sellers will hold and with equal measure buyers will lose control to create a new low. But watch for sellers exhaustion in volume spikes, short covering and the overzealous wanting to go long too early. Wait for it to iron out, at around 50, is the only place for buyers to hang their hat, and by the skin of their teeth at that.

We'll then explode to the upside faster and more vertically than we saw from 1441 down here with Absu, to 1450. I expect the nominal or even catastrophic retrace along the way, and I'm not saying we'll get to 1450 overnight or even remain in control of this uptrend correction from last year, but we'll break and hold the 50% resistance grid from 1586, no matter how short-lived.

Day trades? The cards are stacked against you if you aren't aware of where you're at in this short-term bear breach compared to the bull run. Sure you'll take a scalp or two, with Market Profile's help, but I wouldn't count on a winning week.

quote:
Originally posted by redsixspeed

SPQR/Xuanxue: I feel so used. lol :)) Now please answer if you would the question I put to you on 6/10/08



quote:
Originally posted by redsixspeed

Xuanxue: aren't we going to bounce @ the 1350.75 area and continue down to 1339.25 on the ES?



As it stands I called three winning trades in one movement. My trying to predict movements beyond one was a fool's errand, it turned out. That is doing so with only a decade's worth of data in esignal. heh Seriously, despite my tauting to the contrary, I, too, know not where the markets are at.

I called 1350 based on two premises: a) I knew sellers were trying to breach the arm at 1330, and b) I didn't think they'ld succeed. 1350 was a decent area of control for buyers from Feb. to March of this year but was wearing thin. Strong enough however to get a bounce and regain control, though. I knew the 38% support grid from 1253 to 1441 would be broke but didn't think sellers would manage to control it. 1350 was the only answer for me.

Buyers have at least for now gained control of the 50% support grid, but that strong move to the downside above Thursday's high is telling the bears aren't done. I don't know. Sellers had free reign of this stretch to 1325 in one day's trading on April 11. Then buyers took it 1441.

At this point a breach attempt at 1325 seems imminent. Will it hold? If not will 1310 hold? If we do get below 1310, it's no man's land and tells us that the markets were overbought at 1586 and has shifted to an area of correction to the extreme. On the other hand if this year's entire movement is the creation of a beginning bull trend's first arm, an attack on 1250 isn't an unreasonable assumption. Obviously if we breach 1250 we stared too long into the abyss and it answered. There are no limits to how low this could go.

I'm only trading intraday charts until I know with certain clarity how 1225 reacts.

Then, 50% may have held. We'll just have to wait and see.