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Trend Theory


I'll admit this isn't entirely my own but the coach in the trading group I'm with (no names) uses it for scalps and I merely adapted it for a swing model. It's sort of simplistic but a) it works and b) can be span across numerous different sectors such as the publishing industry, retail, you name it.

Major Swings

1) The opposition must show conviction they wish to reverse the trend by stopping the trend and holding it briefly.

2) The opposition must then breach the trending party's line by surpassing their conviction level.
a) If the party line is breached only once then the same must also happen elsewhere in the proceeding trend.

3) All breaches after two are considered jockeying to create a base of the same low in price (for reversing downtrends) and the same high in price (for reversing uptrends) on more than one occasion.

4) Movement to create support for the base only occurs when the opposition to the trend temporarily loses edge to the trending party by ceasing to breach its own levels.

5) Support for the base and a change of trend will not occur unless or until the trending party moves lower than the base (in a downtrend) and higher than the base (in an uptrend).
a) Support for the base must not be considered established unless or until the bar, line or candle closes higher in price than the lowest low (in a downtrend reversal) and lower than the highest price (in an uptrend reversal).

Minor Swings

Rules 1-5a of Major Swings apply.

Give it a whirl. Trade swings with one contract and scalp off of them in another. 50-100 points a week sure beats 20 or thereabout.
Xuanxue: Your trading coach got the rollover week wrong which is a fairly big mistake for a very simple known market fact.
I took that into consideration. My sim account doesn't warrant second guessing though.

You don't have to look into what I'm talking about if you don't want to - and I take it you don't. It didn't take you a minute to attempt to discredit me. Whatever. What are you selling?
I'm point out that you're giving your trading coach a lot of credit and the only verifiable fact so far she got wrong. I'm not discrediting you - I'm discrediting your trading coach. She's the one making the mistakes.
You're nitpicking is what you're doing and beginning to prove quite the pest.

If you believe anything I've written above differs in theory from how John W. Henry, Bill Dunn and Richard Dennis fortified their own empires from trend reversals you're simply living in your own rectum. Do please refrain from commenting to me until you can address your issues with me.

Honestly with that muddled head I don't know how you're able to trade at all.

quote:
Originally posted by day trading

I'm point out that you're giving your trading coach a lot of credit and the only verifiable fact so far she got wrong. I'm not discrediting you - I'm discrediting your trading coach. She's the one making the mistakes.

Xuanxue: Your attitude and comments are not what we want here. Our objective in this forum is to help each other become better traders. Goodbye.