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MP Value Analysis


I have started posting value areas and tpo numbers on jackofsumtrades.blogspot.com Please send me your thoughts.
Most of the volume has rolled over to September for the ES and YM so having the data for June doesn't do me much good personally.....otherwise some of that data would be useful to know

just my three cents worth..

Bruce
Thanks for the reply Bruce.

I am rolling es and ym to sep, crude to august, and beans to november. I Will send another update when the grain markets close.

What a run up in july silver today!

quote:
Originally posted by BruceM

Most of the volume has rolled over to September for the ES and YM so having the data for June doesn't do me much good personally.....otherwise some of that data would be useful to know

just my three cents worth..

Bruce

Perhaps when you have time you could give us some insight into how you specifically use your numbers...thanks and good luck with the blog

Bruce
Basically the numbers on the left side of the column come from a 5 day overlay. The middle numbers are tpo and poc data, same 5 day overlay. And the left column are distributions.

Basically I wait for a balanced market to develop, and i track those with the arrows. When i feel the market is balanced then i lean on the tpos & distribution points (also fundemantal news) to help me place limit and stop orders. Then I try and pile into the market without taking on too much risk.

Thanks for looking over the blog. I will continue to update it twice a day. Any thoughts or comments would be great.


quote:
Originally posted by BruceM

Perhaps when you have time you could give us some insight into how you specifically you use your numbers...thanks and good luck with the blog

Bruce

I just called Jack Fischer (jackofsumtrades) and had a chat with him. He comes across as an honest and approachable guy - this is based on a 10 minute phone call so I'm not vouching for anyone here.

He said that his value areas are based on a TPO chart of 5 days of Regular Trading Hour (RTH) 30 minute bars if I understood him correctly. So if you drop 5 days of high and low data into the Market Profile Generator you should be able to get the same numbers. (I haven't tried that yet.)

The way that I do this on eSignal is to open an Advanced Chart and set the data to a Time Template which has RTH such as RTH East Coast. I then right click on the chart and select Tools -> Data Export... and select 5 days of High and Low data and hit Ctrl+C to copy it to the clipboard. On the Market Profile Generator page I select the values currently in the area using Ctrl+A and paste the new values using Ctrl+V. Change the settings at the top. Click Generate and you've got your 5-day Market Profile.
As an example, and for you to try, I copied the high and low values for 5 days of SPY from 9 to 16 June 2008. You can copy them straight from here and drop them into the calculator. The only other change I made from the default settings on the calculator were to change the Tick Size to 0.01 the first time and then 0.1 the second time I tried it.
137.04	136.38
137.50 136.80
137.28 136.81
137.24 136.79
137.41 136.95
137.10 136.79
137.22 136.97
137.15 136.11
136.51 135.82
136.12 135.41
136.38 135.83
136.17 135.555
136.75 135.86
136.08 135.52
136.51 135.65
136.39 135.90
136.35 135.72
136.68 135.87
136.79 135.99
136.82 136.47
137.10 136.43
137.01 136.47
136.57 135.81
136.48 136.05
136.605 136.26
136.66 136.11
136.085 135.51
135.54 134.44
135.27 134.45
135.24 134.48
135.06 134.45
135.11 134.59
134.80 134.31
134.94 134.56
134.84 134.45
135.15 134.48
134.96 134.55
134.90 134.33
134.71 133.93
135.67 134.53
135.77 135.00
135.51 135.11
135.71 135.375
135.65 135.17
135.53 135.24
135.52 135.12
135.35 134.93
135.13 134.56
134.86 134.43
134.73 134.13
134.52 133.52
134.55 133.72
135.37 134.61
136.35 135.15
136.13 135.54
136.13 135.70
136.1202 135.77
135.93 135.72
135.93 135.35
135.51 135.06
135.42 134.87
135.49 134.90
135.725 135.23
135.87 135.51
136.42 135.33
135.97 135.46
136.29 135.63
136.57 135.93
136.55 136.03
136.32 136.10
136.25 135.93
136.46 136.03
136.76 135.96
136.93 136.61
136.79 136.44
136.87 136.49
136.87 136.55
136.69 136.295
Could you give me some insight as to how you define a balanced market? I'm finding longer term Market Profile to be quite subjective so any advice here is appreciated.....I know some use overlapping Value Areas. How do you decide to fade extremes or go for the break out from balance....


Thanks

Bruce
quote:
Originally posted by jackofsumtrades



Basically I wait for a balanced market to develop, and i track those with the arrows. When i feel the market is balanced then i lean on the tpos & distribution points (also fundemantal news) to help me place limit and stop orders. Then I try and pile into the market without taking on too much risk.

Thanks for looking over the blog. I will continue to update it twice a day. Any thoughts or comments would be great.


quote:
Originally posted by BruceM

Perhaps when you have time you could give us some insight into how you specifically you use your numbers...thanks and good luck with the blog

Bruce



For a bracketed market: I like to see effecient trade within the value area (5 day overlay) and really like to see it trading close to the point of control and in between the first standard deviations.

As far as coming up with the directional trade, i rely on the TPO's. In this example. crude has 1585 TPOS above and 1552 TPOS below the POC. More sellers than buyers above 135.10, or plenty of supply and not enough demand at the extremes.

In 10 minutes the eia energy report comes out. (930am cst) If crude starts to run, it could logically move far away from the point of control and if it moves higher (say 137.15) i would consider selling it, if it moves lower (say 133.70), i would consider selling it, but with a much closer stop.

Margins on crude are just under 10k, so i would likely get scared out of the trade and not be able to stick with it. Assuming i was right, i would likely put a stop in to break even and pay for commissions.

see: http://jackofsumtrades.com i will continue to post my daily stuff 2 times a day, well, at least until i am told i can no longer post.


quote:
Originally posted by BruceM

Could you give me some insight as to how you define a balanced market? I'm finding longer term Market Profile to be quite subjective so any advice here is appreciated.....I know some use overlapping Value Areas. How do you decide to fade extremes or go for the break out from balance....


Thanks

Bruce
quote:
Originally posted by jackofsumtrades



Basically I wait for a balanced market to develop, and i track those with the arrows. When i feel the market is balanced then i lean on the tpos & distribution points (also fundemantal news) to help me place limit and stop orders. Then I try and pile into the market without taking on too much risk.

Thanks for looking over the blog. I will continue to update it twice a day. Any thoughts or comments would be great.


quote:
Originally posted by BruceM

Perhaps when you have time you could give us some insight into how you specifically you use your numbers...thanks and good luck with the blog

Bruce