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For the Volatility Affectio


We topped a measured move at 1313.50 ES from the C wave corrective bottom on the 29th of June at 1231.50. On average corrections in this run have been 66.57%. I'm targeting a 27.5 point move to the downside at 1286. The standard deviation of closing prices for a 13 period EMA is presently at 3.9969% from troughs to peaks. From the correction I expect prices to continue persistently increasing to correct 1441. With present volatility in the S&P (ES), it can be reasonably assumed that price will be satisfied at 1337.50, a 56.92% correction, not by coincidence ending the bull they being resisted at the monthly S2 pivot for June and S1 in May.

Let's see where it goes.
Ihave found that the first move off of a high or low generally telegraphs a resistance area related by fib ratios,especially 2.618. ihave used this succesfully for about 2 years.For instance, isnt it interesting that the first significant move off of the 1313.50 high travelled to 1294.25. This is a move of 19.25. 19.25 times 2.618 is 50.39. subtracted from 1313.50 gives 1263.This should be a resistance area, tho not necessarily the low. Seems to line up with your measurd move.Oops, imeant to reply to your thread es 8-13-08. [im a neby at forums]
note also that the first move on a shorter tme frame (5 min chart),shows amove to 1297.75 before a meaningfull pullback. 1313.50 minus 1297.75 is 15.75. times2.618 is 41.23. Subtracted from 1313.50 gives 1272.25. That would be a good spot for todays low. I only trade these areas if other technicals seem to line or i get confirmation from multiple time frames. It is interesting tho.
quote:
Originally posted by koolblue

note also that the first move on a shorter tme frame (5 min chart),shows amove to 1297.75 before a meaningfull pullback. 1313.50 minus 1297.75 is 15.75. times2.618 is 41.23. Subtracted from 1313.50 gives 1272.25. That would be a good spot for todays low. I only trade these areas if other technicals seem to line or i get confirmation from multiple time frames. It is interesting tho.



That is interesting stuff, Kool,


Your take could have help me make a more informed decision in the overbought setup I lost sleep, and money, over. I'll play around with it. Don't mind if I do..

You might have noticed that the very first move off of 1313.50 basis the 5 min. chart was to 1300.25. This of course projected to 1278.75.Since we were extremely oversold on a short term basis, i went long at 1278, looking for 1282 to 1284 and was stopped out at 1279.75.
I have a sort of living price action and transfer of control theory I keep refining that for every three premium peaks in prices of satisfaction, it will correct the trough belonging to the correction made from the last 3 peaks, or terminate the trend; just as for every three peaks made in a swing, it will correct. That's what I meant by a measured move.

Who knows, it could turn out we helped one another out where it could have been most used..

Thanks again. And welcome aboard.
For the brave among us: StDev EMA is at 4.0073764%. Short from the top: 1260.86. Long from 1274.50: 1325.57.

Careful now.