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ES-09-11-08


Lots of discussion about ticks yesterday.WEEKS ago, i pointed out a relationship that has ocurred with incredible accuracy over the last 5 years. Anytime the closing ticks on the nyse is above 800 a significant decline ensues within two trading days.last time , i noticed this i posted it i think aug. 15.Two days later we hit 1303.50 on the e- mini and slammed down about 40 points.Yesterday i noticed plus 853 near the close!I wish some one could backtest this as i have no capacity to do so. The accuracy seems incredible, but more study is needed to be sure.Im not even sure what we closed at on the ticks , but if it was above 800, look out below!
Are you guys trading the ESU8 or the ESZ8 today? I stick with the older contract until the volume gets to be greater in the other, I don't like the week of contract switch...

Long @ 1213.5 coming off my Sq of nine date number 1211.5 and 13.5 is a monthly pivot.
quote:
Originally posted by BruceM

Linda Racshke has done some work with Tick extreme closes and how it correlates with Breadth.....






Has any one joined her chat room? Its $500.00 a month for the futures room, I think it would be worth the experience. I am thinking of joining for 6months or a year.
quote:
Originally posted by CharterJoe

Are you guys trading the ESU8 or the ESZ8 today? I stick with the older contract until the volume gets to be greater in the other, I don't like the week of contract switch...





Now there is something I've yet to take into consideration, I have always just switched on rollover. How big of a difference would you say it makes the first few days of rollover?
fwiw, there are pit session single ticks from July on the ESU between 00.75-04.0, 11.5-14.25 and 16.5-18.0. There is a 10 year note auction at noon CT today that may bring some action and the Treasury budget # comes out at 1pm CT.
In the past some of my largest draw downs are at these weeks. Because I deal with volume at price and some times the prices are different. So the best way I have found to deal with it is wait for the volume to surpass the old contract. It is most of the time by Monday or Tuesday. Also If you check the pivot points some times there different, some times as much as 2 points. Like the ES U8 slipped 2 points below the monthly pivot and the ES Z8 bounced right off it. But I have found that my method saves me money, and I have been through many roll overs. I count rollovers instead of years in the markets LOL.
Exited Long +2,
buying one at 1214.75,Good positive divergences, 3 point stop
order cancelled ...waiting for 1210.75
I joined you for another scalp..G.M.T.A I had a good divergence on the 144tick MACD, what were you referring to, kool? 2.25 on that one.
By the way, Joe, theres going to another gap to be filled come Mon. lol!...stay tuned!