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ES 9-30-08


I just covered all of these in the overnight at 1253.50...I'll consider this a "gift" and a failed campaign because of the high risk and overnight exposure.......thanks again for the support and encouragement......

one thing that many aspiring traders don't always factor in is TIME.......OUR personal time...

I've got two kids and one on the way.....it's 4:21 in the morning on the east coast and I am UP managing this trade......I'm 47 years old and I need to sleep..lol..........While I'm happy to exit the trade it's just not worth the wear and tear on ones personal life at times....

You folks with the options had the right idea.....

quote:
Originally posted by BruceM

I went in at 27.25...three.....avergae price on this campaign is 1148...whew...that's a mess...targeting 62.50.....but when...?

Insummary: using all 3 tools( indicators, cycles , and price proj.) is how i called for a peak on fri or mon. when the whole world thought we were going way up! its also why i bought calls at the close on crash day when nobody else in their right mind would consider going long !(Apologies to Joe, who also did i believe).Point being that i never , i repeat never, would go by any one technique or indicator ! USE THEM ALL! That way when you are wrong, and you surely will be sometimes, you wont get stung too badly!
Thanks kool, so much for your explanation of Price Projection..by george, I think I've got it! I am still in the dark regarding the use of cycles. Whenever you have time, would you mind going into that? I really appreciate all the time you put into this forum to share with us! You're very generous.
Excellent technical analysis!

Can you please recommend some books or links to reference for emini futures or in general trading futures.

Thanks.
quote:
Originally posted by koolblue

Looking at the action at 1175.75 at the end of the day you should already know what your 5 min. downside proj. is!(negated if 1175 is hit again of course)



Kool - not sure I know the correct answer but here goes...
the high was 1175.75 and next low 3 bars later around 3:15 (central time) was 1164.50 before the close and sideways action into the globex session...so if you consider that a valid peak to trough - then the difference is 1175.75 - 1164.50 = 11.25 x 2.618 = 29.4525 and subtract that from the high 1175.75 - 29.4525 = 1146.25 for the downside?

Is it appropriate to do these projections only at the beginning and end of the day or off the highs or lows of the day (which in this case happened at the beginning and end of the day) or?

As much as I hate to admit it I was short into that peak - in fact I was short from early afternoon on - I am still short as of this writing and hopefully I will exit my trade before the morning session begins... I still finished the month modestly up - actually both August and September...

I have been a systems trader for some time with mixed success - these are systems I have developed with help here and there but they have larger drawdowns - like 8K on a ER2 (now TF) single contract...after watching the system perform day in and out(which btw did excellent this last month)...I started having insights into when it would fail more than when it would work and started trading shorterm off the indicators - the result less profit but much less drawdown (so far anyway)...with the loss for me of the emini russell 2000 for the time being I discovered this website and for now have switched to the ES contract..I really appreciate the honestly, expertise and helpfulness of the traders on this forum.
Kel, answer is on the Pops video thread.(ps; remember not necessarily THE downside of any given cycle or movement but a possible support point where a bounce of some kind might be expected)