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ES 10-03-08

Nice short coming up, 1141 or so.
Thanks Joe for your guidance.
bought 2 oct 1140 calls on the esfor 25.00. JUST got back from picking up the family in time for the last half hour. hourly cycles showed a decline into the close. Not sure if i posted that before i left or not! Idont usually look at the 'longer'term cycles but some one today got me thinking about it.
In regards to the question of why the decline with a positive vote. Before i left all time frames were way overbought . Remeber i was screaming sell? you wont get much better of an oppurtunity than that.The news means nothing.... its how traders decide to interpet that news! How many times have you seen a stock come out with great earnings , only to tank. Same thing! Trust your technicals and charts. The market is going to do what it wants to do! Leave it up to the talking heads on tv to fabricate a 'reason'
ps: actual hourly proj. was 1199.50, hit by the cash index but not the futures(so far)
kool - yesterday closing TICK was nearly about -790 and today was -750...somewhere I thought I read that you mentioned if TICK on close is -800 or more - the market is likely to follow through lower in the next session...however both today and yesterday calls were bought on the close or close to it...implying likely reverse in the next session - which certianly held true this point being these values were close to -800 but not there - and it seems like from a cycle perspective you expected a reversal
If you have a $5000 or $10000 account and you step in front of the fomc bus I hope you can react if it doesn't go your way i.e. chart freeze slow data sometimes happen @ this time. If you have $250,000 account its easier to step in front of a bus. Small accounts need to protect till it grows. This is just good business "cents"
Kel,you are indeed correct. A closing tick above 800 means e dcline within 2 trading days(not necessarily the very next day)I would view the recent high closing tick values as very negative for the market as is the vix index which is at levels that historically have presaged monster rallies, but unlike other times it simply refuses to go back down below 28-30! All of this leads me to conclude that the'bottom' is not in yet. Make no mistake this remains a bear market! However, nothing goes sraight up or down of course, and there are always shortterm oppurtunities showing up.I bought calls at the close because i wanted to hold a countertrend trade over the weekend and a futures contract is simply too risky for me to accomplish that.I have every expectation of unloading it sometime Mon., hopefully at a profit.
Please remember that i am very short term oriented in my trading.Redsix gives very good advise. However the nature of my 'system' and trading style often lends itself to countertrend trades which surely must appear insane to most observers. For instance my indicators,cycles and price proj. were all screaming sell as the house voted on the bailout fri. Everybody else here at the forum was expecting continuation of the rally upon the expected positive outcome. I,in fact shorted near the 1160 level(refer to fri es thread),covering shortly afterward because i had to leave the house.Now we have a similar situation in reverse. But since is occurring near the close i decided to try a small options play.
Thats true redsixspeed, but I am saying news doesn't help. Like kool said how many news followers sold on good news? I am sure that most here have seen markets go up on bad news and down on good news, just because someone knows of a fed meeting or a vote in the house, or coming hurricanes doesn't help nor hurt a trader.
News effects me to such a degree that it henders my trading, like Friday all my indicators said short at 57-61 I even said this HOURS before it happened in this thread. But what happened at 57-61? I bought into the propaganda of the "news" and lost we'll I didn't lose I made a little and then came to my since's and bought puts. But going by the news I would have lost with a $5000 account and I lost with 250,000 account.
And as far as traders with 5-10k in there account if they trade with correct size there is no way that they'll be cleaned out by one trade. But if the news helps you then by all means keep it up, I am just saying its not a must. Just as some here say "never add to a loser" half my big wins are avg losers, some times 3-4 times. I honestly do not know how a trader can on a regular basis pull large $$$ trades out of the market without adding to losers. I am sure it can be done but it works good with my system And the other one is "always use a stop-loss" this is crazy imho, I would go out of biz overnight doing such a thing. Some trades call for a 4 point stop and some maybe a 2 point but almost all of my trades are played by ear, because the market is constantly changing. Only 10% of my trades are entered in with a stop, and I would would go as far to say most of my losses are from trades entered with stops. The way I do it is if I get a signal put a trade on fix a limit on my exit, and I hold the trade until something changes i.e. the divergence turns into a new high/low, the sq of nine is penetrated.
Red, I am not directing any of this to you its just the news rubs me the wrong way....there like the false vendor from were the devils going. And I have lost a lot of money watching the news before I decided to pull the plug. I cannot tell you how many trades I have entered and then some news comes out in my favour, all because I believe the markets tell the story before CNBC does. But if a new trader with a small account is afraid of fed days or news release's in the A.M. then I would get a calender and not trade at those times.
And about data freeze..I use transACT for my broker and I have yet to have a freeze with them because its just a simple market DOM. E-signal freeze'a all the time with me but I would love to use them, the techies blamed it on my bandwidth, but I am pulling more width than T-1, and my computer is fine. I am in the process of trying to find a vendor that can deliver what I need with no or limited freeze. Think or swim is good with no freeze but is 2 seconds behind at times. I have tried razor trader and they don't do $TICK but are over all good. And tradestation is the best out of them all but it doesn't plug into which I need for MP and volume footprint charts, So I have no idea who to use. I might just have to use Tradestation for trading and esignal for my marketdelta and MP
Toes are fine Joe; glad everything is good with your new girl