No registration required! (Why?)

Housing market to bottom in Nov 2010


I posted this info in another thread but thought that it would be better in a topic of its own so I've moved it here.

Here's a list of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index Futures Contract's Last Price from this CME web page:

Nov 2008 - 176.0
Feb 2009 - 166.8
May 2009 - 164.6
Aug 2009 - 163.4
Nov 2009 - 159.8
Feb 2010 - 155.6
May 2010 - 151.6
Nov 2010 - 150.0
May 2011 - 151.4
Nov 2011 - 153.0
Nov 2012 - 160.0

Click image for original size
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index Futures Futures on 8 Oct 2008.
DT I re-read the last thread and it looked like I was arguing so I am re-wording it.

I don't think it'll ever be were it was, thats for sure the FED has already said there going to change it. I am a contractor and it takes 12 months to build a home so thats something to keep in mind. If you wait for a turn around then you'll be finished near the top. The best time to build is near or right at the bottom because lumber is the cheapest you can save 10's of thousands by building a home now and finishing it at the bottom. So when I say its near the bottom my time line as a builder is a lot different than yours maybe. Because It is a 12-18 month process.
I don't think we will have another nation wide boom like we had, but I think we are near a bottom....and on the other hand there are always a slow down in winter so I think spring housing starts will really be picking up most don't start in fall, and winter is usually dead so Spring ought to be moving nicely.
The reason that I put so much weight on what the futures prices of the housing market show is because the traders in this market only have an interest in predicting the future price of the market and getting it right. i.e. they don't have a bias to the housing market "picking up" again. They will trade in either direction with the highest probability of success. They are the only people who have put money on the line who are truly not biased. Almost all other commentators on the market have a reason for wanting the housing market to pick up again. There is nothing wrong for wanting this and we'd all be better off if the housing market did pick up again (myself included) but if we put our sentiment aside and ask what is the market most likely to do I think that the best information that we have to answer this question comes from this futures contract.
Personally I'd like to be able to fiqure out when a particular market ( housing) was to bottom as I don't trade housing futures....

I spent the last 20 years in Connecticut and they tended to lag the decline and then pick up at about the same time.....my point being is that I'd like to be able to fiqure out what my local market is doing and when.....
quote:
Originally posted by day trading

The reason that I put so much weight on what the futures prices of the housing market show is because the traders in this market only have an interest in predicting the future price of the market and getting it right. i.e. they don't have a bias to the housing market "picking up" again. They will trade in either direction with the highest probability of success. They are the only people who have put money on the line who are truly not biased. Almost all other commentators on the market have a reason for wanting the housing market to pick up again. There is nothing wrong for wanting this and we'd all be better off if the housing market did pick up again (myself included) but if we put our sentiment aside and ask what is the market most likely to do I think that the best information that we have to answer this question comes from this futures contract.




What was the contract doing in the first quarter of 06', I would be willing to bet it was pointing for higher ground? How could an unbiased trader place a trade, thats like an oxymoron. Seems to me that the only one that is unbiased is me because I am sitting on the sidelines and couldn't care less what the value of my home is because I will not borrow on it, and I will not sell and if I do it doesn't matter because I built at the right time and it'll sell for a profit, so I can call it like I see it. And the contractors have to time a bottom lot better than traders to turn a house....And I'll see it first because thats what my family, & friends do. But my father has never seen a nation wide slow down, its always been the west is slow and the north east is booming and the south is steady ect ect this is a special situation indeed.
Bruce,

If you want to know what housing is doing in your town join the NHA national. Homebuilders. Association. And that will be were all the big contractor's gather monthly to discuss housing in your town. Its only like 40 bucks a month here, and every city is different going by the past.