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ES 10-09-08


buying @ 998.5

stop 994.5

i think it goes to 1010 - 1015 and back to the lows.
quote:
Originally posted by BruceM

so far we have lower volume after that 10 point pop up but I'd be curious where the bigs stand on various tests of prices....Is there a pattern?



Bruce - bigs tend to defend levels they have defended in the past. Here is a picture from a few minutes ago but now bigs are -40k. Bigs are the white BAV line with the scale on the right. Smalls are the brown line against te scale on the left. Smalls have now gone negative for the day. What one can't determine is whether bigs are using the ES to hedge the large S&P pit contract or other instruments which can give a false impression of what they are actually up to. All that said I still find the tool useful. Now bigs are -34k as they bought off of 64.5 after the overshoot of the -50% IB extension. For example, bigs "should" be defending sells at 977-978 where their last net selling spiked. Does this make sense? :-)

Click image for original size
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what is would classify a trader a big.......in regards to # of contracts at open at one point in time
Bruce,

I don't want to complicate things but I'll share what I just did. The SP cash hit 960.6 that was 40 cent lower than my sq nine number....the ES was pushing down on high volume, 1 Min RSI was way oversold, and we were pushing oversold on the one min with that last break down, and the cash was already bouncing off the same sq nine number...so instead of waiting for the perfect set-up at the exact level I bailed on my short at the bounce 2.5 pts above the number

edit: The $TICKS indicator (which is not hindsight I just forgot to mention) that I have was almost max oversold, and $TICK at -1303 so its not a good idea to wait for 1.5 more points
Ever since I first saw 'Donald in Mathmagic Land', I've been fascinated by these naturally occurring ratios (e.g. Fibonacci, Gann, etc.). I'd like to put together a study of pivot points vs Gann numbers. Aside from Excel and buckets of VBA code, what other low-cost, highly-flexible systems are available for backtesting things like this?

Personally, I guess I'd say 977 failed as we were closer to 961 for a brief moment. On the other hand, it looks like we're going to pop back up above it so maybe it did hold.
quote:
Originally posted by Akola

buying @ 998.5

stop 994.5

i think it goes to 1010 - 1015 and back to the lows.



covered @ 969.00


What I use for a big and small is arbitrary. The BAV captures every trade. If it is a lot of 50 or more I arbitrarily say that is big money and less than 50 contracts traded is small. If the trade was on the bid I tag it a sell and if it is on the ask I tag it a buy. The BAV than gives me a cummulative count of net "big" and "small" "buy" and "sell" volume for the day. I am finding the tool is less reliable recently as the volatility is causing a lot of overshoots. fwiw, bigs are now -26400 and the next level their selling spiked was 987-988 (see the white line fall off around 9:40?).
Lowest volume of the week thus far and on a Thursday (statistically the highest volume day of the week) tells me that today could mark as a good turning point to the upside for the next few days.

edit - either that or everyone is just so exhausted from the last 3 days they are trading lighter
This makes sense Joe and how I like to use numbers in general....You are using the $tick and volume to detremine the validity of a price area..nice trade TOO

Just wanted to add that Joe also uses RSI to define low risk buy and sell zones....
quote:
Originally posted by CharterJoe

Bruce,

I don't want to complicate things but I'll share what I just did. The SP cash hit 960.6 that was 40 cent lower than my sq nine number....the ES was pushing down on high volume, 1 Min RSI was way oversold, and we were pushing oversold on the one min with that last break down, and the cash was already bouncing off the same sq nine number...so instead of waiting for the perfect set-up at the exact level I bailed on my short at the bounce 2.5 pts above the number

edit: The $TICKS indicator (which is not hindsight I just forgot to mention) that I have was almost max oversold, and $TICK at -1303 so its not a good idea to wait for 1.5 more points

Prestwick your referring to only the minis, your not saying the biggs as in the bigg SP contract correct
quote:
Originally posted by Benny

Prestwick your referring to only the minis, your not saying the biggs as in the bigg SP contract correct



That's correct (I track mini activity). I don't have T&S data for the big S&P contract's trades. When I refer to "bigs" I am meaning big money folks who trade lots of 50 and more contracts.
quote:
Originally posted by koolblue

YEAH, Joe .. as i said i did! But i was sure it could be mastered and after using every system known at the time , i decided to be my own 'expert' and develop my own thing! been fine ever since!



Well said, You can hear it a million times but its whats needed...a system. I am counter trend trader most of the time so its a given that you'll draw down a fairly large amount at times. But my draw downs are smaller than my winners, and once losses occur I go smaller on contract size and then add back to it when things go back to normal. I don't need a new system I just wish I knew how to flip the counter trend trader off and turn on the trend trader in an instant.