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Globex 10-17-08


Hey,gang, just afew thoughts. The closing ticks were positive again, just like yesterday but not excessive(over 800). This would tend to indicate the rally might continue. Also the nas , as i pointed out, outpreformed the dow and s&p which would also be judged to have a bullish bias. Interestingly enough the nas was lagging tonite on globex so we should see some down side tonite and possibly into tomorrow.However ,rally or no, we would be wise to keep in mind always that we are in a bear market,and volitility rules, still. the vix hit a record intraday again today meaning a 100 handle range is entirely possible. Also even if we are lucky enough to stage a rally the oil market is telling us that we are in a wicked recession, and i believe longer term this will cap any rebound to 1100-1150,longer term. As i have explained before there is around an 80% chance of a retest or new low at some point in the future. Just a few random thoughts from an old trader.
keys for me are 918 - 920 on downside and 960 - 962 on upside....I'm going to wait until one of those hits to see if I can get something working today
short from 933.50, 4 point stop
H&S pattern

i am short from 30.75
a nice gap sits up at 1000 area...I like that target IF and that's a big IF the longs can see the light today
whats ur stop kool

stop 937.50, lowering to 933.50, breakeven. reasons for the trade: see all the above posts ,plus fib retracement of the initial decline, plus the mov. avgs, 5 min. on a sell signal
covering here
out 927.00, plus 6.5 on 2 es, up 8 on the session
man, thats the 3rd little stop run in the last 15 min. option unwinding?
BRUCE, 1000 is entirely possible: 3 day avg. range is 96. 96+ 908.00= 1004. and with option expiration,and a high vix, if anything, you would expect the range on the high side
thanks Rd...should be a good magnet if we can get a good entry..
quote:
Originally posted by redsixspeed

quote:
Originally posted by BruceM

we know they will take the overnight high or low over 90% of the time so it will be interesting today as usual



projection to upside 955.50 / so9 954.50 / overnite hi 955.00
sq. rt. from 9:15est 15min lo + .618 954.30