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ES 10-24-08

Well, im quite certain no one believed me yesterday when i said a decline to 852 would not surprise me. Maybe you would be interested in this. I think it time to reveal the longer term price proj. for what its worth. The daily chart price proj. comes in at around 812.50. The weekly also gives 812 and a possible 777.50. The bottom of the cycle starting from 1576 bottoms initially in Jan. 09. The shorter term charts (60 min. etc.) also confirm 812 area and potentially down to 755.25. The worst case scenerio i can find on any of the charts is around 742-748. Whatever happens in the next few days,weeks and months we would be wise to remember these areas,even if not achieved soon, not for 'the bottom' but as potential turning points for decent bounces. Since they come from 'longer term' charts , they should be treated as areas for a trend change not necessarily 'exact' numbers. By the way , ive commented on the closing ticks many times. Nuff said.Also i expected a peak, from the daily charts on thursday. As we seemed to be declining into this time frame, that would simply imply very neg. cycle action. ill bet yesterdays high, or the day befores will certainly look like at least some kind of peak in the fullness of time. I could be completely wrong on everything ,of course, but just wanted to share some thoughts with my friends here on the forum. By the by, on last nights globex chart, the decline from the globex high(917.25) to the first significant pause at 2:40(863), gives a proj. to 775...very close to the 777 number from longer term charts. incidently , limit down during the day sessin would come in around 795 or so i think (not that i expect it to be seen, but since the 'triangle' on the daily charts has broken to the downside, i suppose anything is possible)
wow that will be horrible.. man i went long last night but something made me to short ym also.

so long es and short ym but still i am down

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It's limit down ... LONGS are permitted, SHORTS are not.
It may go without saying but please be very careful trading the open today. We had a limit up day on 9/19 which was a mirror image of what we see today with a huge quantity of contracts sitting on the limit bid on that day and a huge number of contracts sitting on the limit ask today. On 9/19 we had an immediate spike of 28 ES handles above the limit level that happened in a flash, probably largely due to forced short covering. Today (unless sentiment drastically changes) we will likely have a significant drop below the limit down level on the open due to stop losses getting hit and margin call related forced selling.

To get a ball park clue as to where we could possibly open if the open were now, one can look at how the SPY is trading. As I am typing this it is -8.3%. An 8.3% drop on the futs from the 3pm CT cash market closing time yesterday is equivalent to approx. 834 on the ES. The ES rallied 5.75 handles after the close of equity markets so right now the SPY is implying an ES level of approx. 840.

FWIW, there are sq 9s at 841, 827 and 813. Also, the SPY is now -7.3% implying an ES in the 849 area.
The good news is we'll likely get a good bottom today or more likely mon. and another next thurs. The question is where? May have to play options if the es is too untradeable. fwiw, the elliot freaks will be targeting 790 where c=a , best seen on the daily chart.
Originally posted by bakrob99

It's limit down ... LONGS are permitted, SHORTS are not.

I was looking more @ the direction the market might take
@ the open
Personally - I'll wait for the dust to settle before trading. There's plenty of volatility to go around without jumping in to the mess. After we get a big break one way or the other ... the play will be more obvious.
In my mind, the es will likely open at its previous yearly low, at or very near 837
I am going to shutdown a few workspaces and get ready for some action ... I have a feeling it might be like an FOMC announcement.
rumors floating around FX traders of a coordinated intervention by the FCB's against the Yen.
Originally posted by prestwickdrive

Originally posted by prestwickdrive

+50% IB = 897. Sq 9s @ 886 & 901

897 top so far

great call PWD. I also like to confirm areas either by pattern,
other #s i.e. so9, volume, and projections. The more I confirm
the better.
Thanks for your input