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ES 10-24-08

Well, im quite certain no one believed me yesterday when i said a decline to 852 would not surprise me. Maybe you would be interested in this. I think it time to reveal the longer term price proj. for what its worth. The daily chart price proj. comes in at around 812.50. The weekly also gives 812 and a possible 777.50. The bottom of the cycle starting from 1576 bottoms initially in Jan. 09. The shorter term charts (60 min. etc.) also confirm 812 area and potentially down to 755.25. The worst case scenerio i can find on any of the charts is around 742-748. Whatever happens in the next few days,weeks and months we would be wise to remember these areas,even if not achieved soon, not for 'the bottom' but as potential turning points for decent bounces. Since they come from 'longer term' charts , they should be treated as areas for a trend change not necessarily 'exact' numbers. By the way , ive commented on the closing ticks many times. Nuff said.Also i expected a peak, from the daily charts on thursday. As we seemed to be declining into this time frame, that would simply imply very neg. cycle action. ill bet yesterdays high, or the day befores will certainly look like at least some kind of peak in the fullness of time. I could be completely wrong on everything ,of course, but just wanted to share some thoughts with my friends here on the forum. By the by, on last nights globex chart, the decline from the globex high(917.25) to the first significant pause at 2:40(863), gives a proj. to 775...very close to the 777 number from longer term charts. incidently , limit down during the day sessin would come in around 795 or so i think (not that i expect it to be seen, but since the 'triangle' on the daily charts has broken to the downside, i suppose anything is possible)
on a 'longer' term basis, im sorry ,but this rally is not impressive at all! they had a chance to really take it down for a legit panic bottom and recovery but chose not to. I kid you not, we are not in the 'big' bear rally we all hoped for. Light vol.,high closing ticks , and absolutely no increase in new highs(under 15 for days now!) all are telegraphing continuation to me ,not reversal. TODAYS LOW AT 840 was not even a tiny break of 837 and all it was was the spx cash low that day! (no coincidence in my mind)
The Nas refuses to take a leader ship role on the upside(which it surely will!) and youll know it when you see it cause it will days every bit as dynamic and ferociuos on the upside as weve seen the last month or so on the downside.
sold one at 877.25,3 point stop
looking for 872.00
out at 873.50..moving quick! 3.75
remember that 870 number?
lookingfor 864 down 885 up..fwiw i have a decent cycle low coming in at 12:49-53
5 min avg at 868.50 didnt give any support!...not good
5 min bar at 12:50 should contain a tradable low also. mAX DOWSIDE IS 854-859
hangin at the 5 min avg(not for long ill bet!) Ill shut up for a while now...(bored, sorry!)
Originally posted by prestwickdrive

Originally posted by prestwickdrive

+50% IB = 897. Sq 9s @ 886 & 901

897 top so far

great call PWD. I also like to confirm areas either by pattern,
other #s i.e. so9, volume, and projections. The more I confirm
the better.
Thanks for your input