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ES 10-29-08


Hey gang. Had a lousy globex, but the day aint over yet! Take note of the fact that closing ticks yesterday wrer plus 786! Not over the magic 800, of course, but close enough to make me feel better of my long expected low today or tomorrow, before the run up into and maybe just beyond the election. Time will tell!
neg. divergence
im going to change strategy here. because of the large tiangle best seen on the 5 min chart, ill put a stop on the one es at 943.50 risking only 3 handles, reason is the top of the trenline is around 941 current ly. The lower trend line is around 930 currently or 928 depending on how you draw it . all i know is a decent low should be around 12:30 give or take.
quote:
Originally posted by koolblue

im going to change strategy here. because of the large tiangle best seen on the 5 min chart, ill put a stop on the one es at 943.50 risking only 3 handles, reason is the top of the trenline is around 941 current ly. The lower trend line is around 930 currently or 928 depending on how you draw it . all i know is a decent low should be around 12:30 give or take.



currently for regular session the DVAH on the profile is at 941 and the full session DVAL is at 928 along with 618 ret at 928.65 fwiw
5 min avg is 935.50, 15 min is 929.50, so if given the chance ill exit as close to 931 as i can. Longer term its fed day , usually a rate cut would be good for a big spike up. But if there was ever a time for every one to already know the out come and have it factored in this would be it. SO it will be interesting to see the reaction. Best guess... a smallspike up which dies after ten or fifteen min. and a decline after ,possibly to my 916-18 or even 907 numbers. But who knows? thats just a guess based on the closing ticks , weakvol testerday ,no expansion of new highs , etc.
Fwiw, i do remember a fed cut couple years ago, resulting in a big decline . So its not out of the realm of possibilities. Boy wouldnt that piss off the bulls!
seems to be 1/2 is priced in 1/4 would be not good and 3/4 would be nice but that could be seen as the economy would need more than we think and vis versa for the 1/4.. ie fed thinks we are not needing that much of a cut ad leave room for next time..... but who knows as most would say this sounds like the gossip going around
Man getting close to 12:30 and this is going nowhere fast , i spose ill bag this on the next little decline, and watch for a bit
gs is making new highs for the day some news might be coming out i guess
Man i have cycles calling for a top and a bottom at 12:30 or so! VERY CON FUSING ! basically that would mean a trend change, but i have no idea. covered at 940.25 for break even trade .
Benny, i think every one knows its a half . I think what makes or breaks it is if its a 'coordinated cut'. Ie: several countries involved.
went thru 961 like butter....970-976??