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ES 11-25-08


daily: 1073 / 736.25
60m: 910.75, 899.50
15m: 916, 884
5m: 875.50,

need to retrace a bit before we get any downside projections
C YA TOMORROW!
theres a tiny 1
15 min avg was also in this area! AND after the first down bar , the peak looked to be forming so i waited for the rebound back to that 850.50 to 851.50 zone to strike!
Admittedly price proj was higher , but also note the large cycle shown which peaked about 5 bars to the right of the bar labelled 'gave here' ,,, and the still outstanding proj down to 825 or so! Note all the 'beatiful ' reverse cycles all over the chart! In fact one gave the bar where the initial proj of 833.50 hit! thats on the 5 min chart, i use the 1 min to ,fine tune these cycles,etc! Thats how i knew we had to bounce a little any way off that 833 level.. how much ? thats where avgs and price proj come in, but if i would have gone long, ... who cares how much!!! id JUST GRAB A FEW GUARENTEED HANDLES AND JUMP OUT! Thats how come i get so many 'winners'. just get a few and get out. if it looks like its going to be a 'big' rally , i can always get back in again... That in a nutshell is my trading philosophy.
VO or Karen - did you get a 61.75 target for that big last run? I had a previous cycle high of 851 and the cycle low of 833.5 for a spread of 17.5. That times 1.62 = 28.35 added to the cycle low of 33.5 gives 61.85. We got 61.5. Pretty incredible.
70.25 implied on this move?
prestwick are you using 5m?
oh i think i see what you did...you took the 12:35 H and the 13:20 L (CST)?
right - I was just simplifying with prices and not times
Thanks VO. I haven't been working with Kool's cycle projection tool much and was experimenting this PM. I was using the cycle highs and lows and using 1.618 from the end of the cycle. In my notes I had Kool saying to use 2.618 from the beginning of the cycle. Using the 1.618 I had a cycle H to L of 17.5 when fibbed by 1.612 gave me a 28.25 point expectation which added to the cycle low of 833.5 gave me a 61.75 target. For that second cycle projection that negated I had 61.5 - 47.25 = 14.25 * 1.618 = 23 + 847.5 (cycle low)= 870.5 target. That's the one that didn't hit at the end of the session. Maybe I am oversimplifying it.