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Week 3


quote:
This is the third weekly installment of my CL/CES journal I outlined in The Intro. Here's Week 1 and Week 2. The course is based on material provided by DLC Profiles as well as MoM and MiP. Anyone needing more information should fill out this form and schedule some time with DLC to get a deeper overview of the course.

On with the journal ...
CL/CES - Week 3

I added a mini-section that will hold links for the stuff i refer to on a regular basis. I'll use this as a intra-topic sticky, that way i won't forget to post links and everything (for the most part) will be at the top of each weekly post.

after a week of no market observation or involvement, I was looking forward to getting back to it. I'm still pulling together my notes for the week, so I will post them tomorrow. And the rest of this week's post.

I will say that Tuesday's Cognitive Market Webinar was a great event. I touched on it in one of my Week 2 posts, but have had a better chance to connect it with some of the material i have covered and some of the things that played out this week in the markets.

again, i'll either expand this post or add a new one to the topic, but i'm spent for now.
market notes for the week. i didn't write down the times so i'll have to do something different this week. i may go with twitter notes. dunno. or i may end up doing more of a synopsis for the day. like everything else with this journal, it's a work in progress

Monday 1/26/2009
friday concluded a 4-day balance, with the entire week confined to about a 40-pt range. looking to go with a break in either direction; a down move would be in line with the overall trend.

looks like we'll gap up a bit on the open.

selling shut off buying at that big fat 850 level. the 853-860 area has been pretty stiff for about 2wks.

staying above Friday's high, but the intraday highs keep failing. looks like the deep pockets aren't playing so far; feels like most are waiting.

that 838-840 intraday level broke down.

sellers kept pushing and filled the gap. no now selling though, so that stab might end up as a tail.

it was a tail. weak up movement couldn't crack the 840. and we closed at the open. lowest volume in 9 sessions.

EOD Notes:
mixed signals to and for me. that in itself is meaningful. no real leader, no real conviction. with the gap up and the open drive i was going with the break from balance to the upside. it was there but fizzled out within 20-pts. and it left a tail. buying dried up and selling stepped up. i read it as liquidating longs but buying fizzled at 840 too. again, one of those technical levels and no real money (volume) behind anything. selling wasn't strong, it was just the least weak today.

Trade Notes:
i took a couple of shorts at the top of the E/F/G bracket area, but just for a couple of points each. no real heat on either. i also took a late short against the 840 area. a little bit of heat. again, just a couple of points. i also had a long and got shaken out for a small loss; i took it off of a level than a perceived market direction.

Tuesday 1/27/2009
another gap up. made it through the 840. ah. stalled at the 845 though. more technical moves. volume still low. here we go back down.

open didn't cause much pause. gap fill. man, another level-y day? hmm. now the open looks a bit rejective; it's shutting off buying. nevermind. that must have been a spot for liquidating longs. makes sense. still very early into spotting clearing out old inventory versus new business.

open is shutting off selling now. we can't even get into C-period. i guess traders are buying. me too.

man, no range extension. nevermind. maybe this will take us up.

or not. the 850 squashes another move. technical, technical, technical. gotta keep that in my head.

range and volume are on vacation.

here we are at the open. again.

near the highs and buying fell off.

and we close near the open. again. jeesh, everything was so technical today. and volume was even lower; lowest in 10 sessions.

EOD Notes:
one word: technical. numeric levels, gap open/fills, opens, all of it. no sign of the big boys. and, like yesterday, it was a draw. i guess i would say the buyers were the least weak today.

Trade Notes:
a couple of longs, both around the open price. i also tried a long around the top of the D/E brackets, but that break out broke down.

Wednesday 1/28/2009
another gap up. and a gap fill to the upside. wonder which will flinch.

downside gap barely touched and the open looks rejective for the buyers. another technical day?

i take this pause at 865 as liquidating longs. if it breaks, this thing looks like it has trend potential, and we are a long way from unchanged. still, the volume is crap.

smallish IB, range extension up, long way from unchanged, gap up ... other than force, this may have what it takes.

rejected ahead of the 880 area. this kept things down a couple of weeks ago too. broader 800-880 bracket if this holds.

staying above the gap open and the old gap. still no oomph, but we are closing just a few points off the highs.

EOD Notes:
okay. a lot of stuff looked up, but it still felt so technical, and in 11 sessions, only yesterday had lower volume. and, really, the range was pretty confined too. the tail at 876ish suggests that a few sellers were done watching. still, we closed near the highs, so we'll see if today leads to anything.

Trade Notes:
even with the upside break, it felt thin so i was playing it tight. i took a counter-trend short trying to catch some of the wave with the liquidating longs. i tried it again, but got too cute and got shaken out. i know long was the theme of the day any way. after the J-period tail, i felt okay to look for shorts again. i found one in L-period at the top of K. a little bit of heat. i thought that K top might end up being a diving board, but it fizzled and the trade worked out okay.

Thursday 1/29/2009
gap down. and we're below that old 861-ish gap too. today might tell us how legit yesterday was. right now, we start out with a ways to go to get to unchanged.

well hell, that old gap is keeping us down, but that 850 bounced us right back up there. one of these should give way for some direction. again, a long way from unchanged.

there it goes. we have range extension. it looks like down it is.

844-ish caused pause. my guess is short covering.

came upon the IBL and dropped again.

new lows. double TPO lows. closing under that 844 level. seems rejective. another low volume.

EOD Notes:
almost 40-pts down from yesterday's uppy moves. low volume but it looks like our 800-880 bracket is still holding. after six sessions, we are almost back to zero.

Trade Notes:
just one trade. i took a short in the K-period when we bounced off the IBL.

Friday 1/30/2009
small gap up. still, getting to unchanged would take some work. 850 is rejective today.

okay, THAT is a tail. unchanged is waaay off now.

back to the close from six sessions ago. and looks like short covering. higher lows, may be some new buying mixed in too. but, getting up anywhere will take work.

couldn't break into A-period or 840. buyers couldn't keep it going.

new lows. but no force, no continuation. back we go for another stab to the upside.

i think everyone is done for the week and month.

new lows. staying below weekly lows.

EOD Notes:
mildly higher volume and highest in five sessions. net loss for the week. still seems mostly technical. the downthrust felt like it had the most oomph.

Trade Notes:
got on board with short covering and took a long around 826. shorted near IBL but that didn't pan out. reversed and that one did. my only trend trade for the day didn't pan out. silliness.

Weekly Summary:
after we broke out of that 4-day balance, we ended up bumping up against that bracket top from a couple of weeks ago. so within our bracket we stay. volume was crap all week and especially so on up days. excess.

as for my own game, i had a hard time keeping the players in mind. it was technical moves most the week, but i'm still very new to looking into and recognizing the who. differentiating between old business and new business is also a new twist, but a very powerful skill.

got some work to do and then it's dun, dun, dun, da, dun, dun ...
Omni,
Great job!
I noticed on Fridays you look at the composite of the prior 4 days. Do you do the same during the week (i.e., on W do you look at the composite on M and T)
quote:
Originally posted by meyer99

Omni,
Great job!
I noticed on Fridays you look at the composite of the prior 4 days. Do you do the same during the week (i.e., on W do you look at the composite on M and T)



Hi meyer, glad to have you along
as far as composites, i actually go with Jim's method of 'speedreading' recent sessions via bar/candle charts. so, in that sense, yes i do look at an overall picture (the forest) before the day ahead of me. but it isn't confined to a set amount of days; i'm just looking for balances, brackets, and breaks.

hope that helps answer your questions. if not, feel free to add to it and we'll get it done.
Thanks for keeping this going Omni