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MP Spikes


i'm starting this topic in an effort to gain some insight to and, if possible, shed some light on profile spikes.

now, guy has done some research on spikes, but the spikes i'm referring to are a bit different.

as a starter, we saw spikes in ES, NQ, and ER2 friday. there may have been others (possibly the ZB??), but i focus on these three indices and the DAX so if anyone wants to post ZB, ZN, YM, EC, ZF, ZT, and so forth, please post away


i'll be going over some recent MP charts and coming up with some examples. i'll post them sometime very late tonight or tomorrow.

in the mean time i have attached a ZIP with a DOC showing yesterday's spikes in the ES and NQ.

the first slide shows the entire day.
the second slide shows the VA established intraday pre-spike.
the third slide shows the new VA stemming from the spike (a 'new day' inside the current day).

take care -

omni



Click link to access uploaded file:
9_9_es_and_nq_spikes.zip
let's take a look at the ES after closing:

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HOD was the top of the Selling Spike from yesterday. distribution curve was fairly normalized, building value within the 'new day' value area from yesterday. LOD did pierce through the Spike bottom, but only be a few ticks. oddly enough it stopped just short of the daily S1. i'm sure it's all coincidence
. it closed for the day within value. when it did move down to and through the Spike bottom, the market indicated we were, at least temporarily, too far away from value - excess - and it made a gradual move up about 5pts. gotta love it.

does it get any cooler than that? dunno. let's go look at the nq ...
on to the NQ ...

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i gotta tell ya - the NQ can produce some of the most beautifully patternized Spike combinations you could want. obviously, it doesn't happen every time, but my goodness they form pretty regularly.

so what do we have today? we were looking at a Spike range overlay of 12pts. today's HOD was below the Spike top and right at VAL. today's LOD was - 12pts away from HOD. beautiful. and the shape? nice and bell-like. obviously, it continued building value that started with yesterday's 'new day' value area. the NQ closed below value and very near LOD.

on to the Wild One ...
Hey omni,
Thanks for posting all these MP charts and commentary. Very interesting. I wish that I had more time to join you in this but I'm snowed under at the moment. Hopefully soon...
here's the ER2. the red arrows indicate the extent of spike range expectation and the green lines are the spike range overlay. the blue line is the excessive range extension.

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the ER2 played unusually nice today. after it formed such an odd spike, i wasn't sure how cooperative it would be today. i expected continuation from yesterday's downward movement and 'new day' value area, but how it went about it and to what extent seemed less than obvious to me.

it turned out to be pretty straight forward. aside from the tail at the top of the range in the first 1/2 hour (which took us right up to VAL), we had a pretty evenly distributed curve. assuming the Spike began in H-period, we were looking for a range of about 5.1pts. 672.30 was HOD, so we were looking for a low-end of about 667.2. it dipped to 666.5 (1-tick above daily S1), and spent most of the rest of the day above ... 667.2. as suspected the sub-667.0 area was a good buy opp. very nice post-spike day in the ER2.

take care -

omni

quote:
Originally posted by guy

Hey omni,
Thanks for posting all these MP charts and commentary. Very interesting. I wish that I had more time to join you in this but I'm snowed under at the moment. Hopefully soon...



no worries
Spike will be waiting for you


and i hope i don't paint the picture as though spikes are the be-all-end-all, holy grail or whatever. to me, spikes represent another piece of the puzzle. and, believe me, i will use any help the market will provide


take care and have a great weekend -

omni
new spikes in ... ER2, ES, NQ

ES:

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NQ:

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ER2:

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i put all the pertinent Spike info on each chart. one thing to note is that so far, the NQ is the only one of the three that was unable to take out the most recent spike top. just fyi ...

take care -

omni
there have been other spikes since the 16th, but i haven't posted them. i didn't post the 29th's spike either, but i am posting the 29th's Spike and the post-Spike session (the 30th).

notes are on the charts:
ER2

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ES

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NQ

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there was also a spike in the ZB on the 30th:
ZB

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have a great weekend.

take care

omni