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Monkey Wkend ES Analysis


These are the ES charts I'm looking at as a template/map coming into the week. The daily has a "T" drawn on it as well as a parallel trend channel, with midline (blue). Also, the 200 sma and other listed price action levels of S/R are aligning/collecting in a somewhat "tight" area as potential resistance.

The 30m chart has pushed slightly above the trend channel a couple of times but am still keeping the channel intact where it is for now. It's "described/contained" price extremely well for over 2 weeks now, and may well offer price levels for "reaction" still.

5m RTH chart is labeled with some of the same levels and other potential resistance prices listed above the current market.

927.75-930 area significant potential resistance ... with 939.50 being the March contract high in January as next significant level.

Seeing initial price action support at 918.50 and then 912.75.

Any MP/fib/floor-pivot levels at these prices would only add to their significance ... in addition to the price channel levels on the 30m and daily charts as they unfold in real time.

Open to feedback, and other analysis !!!
quote:
Originally posted by koolblue

i waited all freakin day mon for 904 the 15 min deadly projection and it was never hit . Finally they hit it in globex right as i have to leave for work!,... jerks! (sigh!)


cool kool we are coming up with the same numbers. I had 911 as a stop the other day, and 904.5 as a add on.

Oil hit an overnight high of 59.68 putting the squeeze on ES shorts ;) looks like a clean break there.
I thought this was a back 'n fill market?!? The NR Double Inside Day Wedge Thingy did what it's supposed to do breaking down with nary a bounce. I'm biased long and was also thinking bear trap so bot the ES twice at some key levels I had ... a loss higher up and a scratch (from entry near Globex low) ... bot NQ 3 times in 1381-82 area with a small loss, a scratch and a small profit for a wash. Broker's happy ... my punishment: smacking my mouse hand 5 times with a rubber mallet, one for each trade.

Don't have anything to add right now, am reassessing where things are ... am still biased long, but price action would have to put in some kind of bottoming formation intraday for me to look at a long entry for some kind of retracement of the morning move down. We've had so many days now that have rallied off of lows to close positive on the session ... that's still on my mind too, for better or worse.

NQ flattened out on 5 min chart for an hour and was trading back above its wkly S1 apprx at 1364 during which time it tested and retested a price action support line I had at 1362 area from 4/17/09 to present ... ES concurrently had tested and rounded up on its 5 min chart from a price action support line I had from an intraday double bottom on 5/5/09. Also, $VOLD was flattening out.

Bot some NQ's 1364.50 @ 12:20:40 cst ... exited a couple minutes later at 1664.75 to scratch trade @ 12:22:56. Was expecting an immediate move of at least a few points for breathing room to then put on a very tight stop. Hoping for at least a "large" scalp and/or a larger retracement back up on the day. Has since rolled back over but woulda been nice. Bleh! Maybe need to steep myself in some Cool Kool Blue Cycle timing.

Just describing what I was seeing and trading FWIW ... some of the analysis and the where and when. The daily chart contraction/wedge breakdown (on that larger time frame) is overriding with the intraday sell off.


I am now bias-less with rubber mallet on desk nearby ... just in case.
Jeeeez ... talk about missing a move. Ended up scalping a few points in-and-out on the afternoon rally I'd been looking for, but hadn't positioned for since I cut out of my long at 1364.50. Ended up with pocket change after commish.

I'm totally open to other's feedback and analysis on my stuff here and how they handled the day and their analysis!!!
I'm still long and long biased, the only thing that will change my mind now would be some acceptance below this weeks IB (894) Bought some calls @ RSI 30 on the 30min RTH chart, which was the low bar today, looks like new highs next and if it is I'll be a lot easier on myself for missing that great short thats what happens when you get cocky, I was so proud of myself for trading every large swing in this up move since feb. and not getting railroaded when the bull came. And the markets have a way of humbling.

Did good on the open mini I.B. for the ES (first 5min) nice "V" shape I like that. And good day trading the NQ's I see you like them too, I love MACD div and dated sq of nine on the Nasdaq dated sq 9 for them tomorrow is 1349, 1365, 1385.25, 1402, 1423 these change a bit every day and have scalped the NQ with them since 05 works well. Had fun with the mid session trend change which is always challenging but did okay today day trading. Longer term swing trades on the other hand has been hard work and little pay out this week for me. My stocks are doing well, Long a few oil stocks getting close to taking some profit on them.
And just went long the XLF (financial select) @ 12.10, starting smaller with 1k will add if it starts running. Been looking to add those back on a pull back.
quote:
Originally posted by MonkeyMeat

ES Daily Chart

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MM Are you a student of terry over at magic T? If so I would appreciate any other info on terry's work if you know of any...
Two thumbs up and a doggie biscuit for a good day in the mkt Joe! Yeah, I trade the NQ's some based off of ES action intraday primarily looking at relative strength/weakness and price reaction areas, for example, where the ES is beginning to bounce usu. off an area of prior price action support and/or a pivot etc. and often get a decent magnitude bounce on the NQ. [dang that was a long sentence] The reverse for shorts. Thurs and Fri the NQ was weaker than ES, espec. in first hour or two. As ES would resume its downmove I'd hit the NQ short for usu. a scalp. I'm using 5min down to 1min charts when looking at the intraday comparisons for relative strength trades. I think it was Monday where the NQ was stronger and holding up better which offered some good buy/scalp opportunities (if memory serves) on ES bounces etc. Btw, thanks for those sq 9 numbers for today!

Regarding the Magic T ... I stumbled across info on it in the ninties (written up by Terry I think) and got somewhat familiar with it at the time, but not in depth. It was basically about symmetry and, in effect, was about price and time it seemed. At least that's what I recall even though I'm sure there's more detail to it. When a chart starts to look like the one above, you can't help but put a "T" on it for reference. Have had that on the chart for roughly 3 weeks now. Now you've got me interested in revisiting it for more detail.