One mans guess
Well, the picture is becoming clearer, a decent decline here, and then higher....much higher into july! heres what Kools Tools are saying F.W.I.W.!
Great question, friend. generally i use the lowest low ...in this case 878.75. note the very next bar has a significant retrace so technically it was a one bar projection.(low 878.75, high 882.50) this gave 888.56or 888.50-75 for a reaction. note the 5 handle pullback as 888.75 was hit about 10:37! after the resumption of the rally i generally go to the next bigger timeframe (15 min) or use the entire initial move which in this case was bar # 4 (if the bar containing 878.75 is considered bar#1) the high here was 886.50 and using the 878.75 low gave a projection of 899.00. that is what i hoped id see all day long! globex tonite or tomorrow? who knows! projections are good unless that 878.75 is touched again. many times i actually use the one min chart for my trading cause im not trying for 5-10 handles but usualyy 1.5 - 3!! all depends on your perspective and goals, expected risk, etc.
note that the above chart shows that even if you knew ,as i did that 888.50-75 would be hit, you would have had to watch it hit 887.50 then tumble to 880.50 before finally advancing to 888.75! thats why i use the bigger charts for trend identification, but trade off of the one min.. its ideal for scalping!...
Got the basics ... still a little muddy on which swings hi/lo to use (or to weigh more heavily ... or to have confluence with other time frames). Good stuff MisterKool ... need to play with it some and gather more of the nuances for what you're seeing and how to employ the "read" as effectively as it should be. Thanks! Tip of the hat and tink of the glass to scalpers and precision low-risk entries and nice exits, ha!
going back to my room now, ive probably already said too much.. ill pop out every so often to say hello tho!!! c ya!!!
called for 976-77, got 975.25 ugh!) now do we go to 902-4 as the chart analysis said?
Tagged 901.75 so far and pulled back to 898.25 ... and if I did the cycle count as per your way (as I understand it), the high bar was in line with that off either the 5min or 2min chart cycle high (I forget) ... either way, really helpful analysis Kool!
no guessing for you KOOL.....nice call!!
kool, there's a separate thread that has been opened here, in search of you...