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VSA Primer


Trading becomes a profession rather than an obsession when traders understand a few concepts about the machinations of accumulation and distribution, the role market makers play in saving or executing the trapped and trading out of poor positions irrationally creating whipsaw and the subtle game of masking intentions in rallies in the subsequent breakout when prices are marked up or down. In point of fact, any combination of those three avenues is what constitutes the marketplace. Being able to reliably distinguish any scenario over another at any given time means graduating from day-swing trading to investing. This or that ridiculously simplistic formula or equally absurd but wholly cerebral equations with concern to entries and exists and portfolio management are all fine if and only if directional timing is mastered. It seems quants and program traders make their money solely by taking out stops after having run 10,000 simulations for every perceivable angle to somehow come out with a 25% gain after losing 30%. Then they look at it and zero in for big moves. It's unfortunate because 90% of the people in the marketplace lose money and those making the money for their masters can't read the tape.

Since the advent of market profile, and the vast amounts of traders amassed with thanks to the internet, long term investing has in large part fallen to the way side by virtue of weak hands creating too much volatility. Money must be made, though. It's funny because shortly after Steidlmayer served on the Board at CBOT and used his influence to pander MP for day traders Barron's introduced the Smart Money Index that showed how it didn't matter where weak hands wanted to take directionality in the morning, or even if price was at fair or unfair value, when they want to move it they move it, and at the close. As I understand it even the Smart Money Index doesn't work any more as a result of far too many new traders using that blasted MP for 2 or 3 2 or 3 point trades a day.

Outside of crippled economies and currencies not backed by anything, or rather, not worth anything, more like, the marketplace has its own troubles, and it is the ignorant, largely under or ill-informed but self-righteous and grossly fragile, egotistical trader.

This "air" I keep reading about here, and "volume tests"? Where was volume heading into and after the pocket was made and around a line of resistance and/or support? Was there found quick support after the breakout on minimal variance? Was their more a decrease or increase of volume as prices surged? Less right? So prop firms weren't distributing but rather adding long and using the trapped's money to initiate?

I'm telling you, master those three things and you won't "need" to hang out in a forum and have one sided pissing contests.

Entertaining though.


A bit strong for a second post. especially since I babble on about MP and "air" but lets see where you take us AL. I look forward to your insights. I try to post my thoughts and trades fairly close to when they happen. So folks don't think they are curve fitted and new traders have something to beleive in. Others do the same but making money on an individual basis is most important.

The only reason I really mention that here is that I have seen VSA threads on other forums and they are full of "after the fact " analysis. The problem with those threads is that there was no consistency from day to day and they where marketing for those VSA software vendors. Some days they where selling volume thrust blow off's up and other days they where going with the trend....always at days end....LOL

I think we here at the forum prefer the "give it to us straight and ugly " approach...warts and all....wins and losses but any idea if we can make it work for ourselves is helpful.

Welcome to the forum and hopefully over time you will give us some insight into volume analysis that is useful.

A quick question: You and others have mentioned how "90% lose" and I'm wondering where that stat comes from ? I've never seen any stats on that in printed form...

One last thing : I should have been more clear...I post for two reasons 1) It's helps me and my thoughts with an online journal I can cut and paste later like I mentioned yesterday 2) Hopefully some get some value in seeing the same thoughts and ideas posted over and over for the past few years.........hopefully it's a good thing that I've been posting for YEARS....the concepts haven't really changed it's just a new day......so time will tell!!
Thanks

Bruce
"I'm telling you, master those three things and you won't "need" to hang out in a forum and have one sided pissing contests."...quote alvianse
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Then why are you here?
quote:
Originally posted by redsixspeed

"I'm telling you, master those three things and you won't "need" to hang out in a forum and have one sided pissing contests."...quote alvianse
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Then why are you here?



Call me the Tony Robbins of the trading room neurotic. Or just Alvianse.

There's really not too much to any of this, so there's not much to say, but when so, I perhaps, may.

To answer your question: boredom.

I guess you're just making so much money like the rest of us.......lets get to the 90% stat while we are "bored"...any answeer on that?
Sniff ... sniff?? Is that verbiage vaguely familiar? Al, if you're buddies with SPQR and Hugo ... tell 'em howdy fer me!!
agree MM....it always seems when we start asking the tuff questions these folks disappear and shrivel up and leave us...perhaps this time will be different.....lets hope so...
It's kinda fun to play cat and mouse on occasion though ... at least for entertainment's sake. Freud only dreamed of having patients like the SPQR's out there. And B.F. Skinner woulda simply shocked 'em until they modified their behavior.
Case in point. ^

Is everyone new SPQR? And is it the norm to troll posts here having naught to do with the topic? Interesting.

Keep the non-committal maps coming, MM.

And Bruce I didn't answer your question because it was stupid.
I guess that proves it MM.....SPQR always seemed to suffer from a language barrier..is that last post supposed to be from merry old england? LOL!!.it is fun at times.....I guess we won't be getting any great VSA commentary ...but we knew that would happen.....I guess we all get what we need....!!!
Psychological profiling via the written word -- beautiful. The only way to truly mask who you are is to post using wingdings!
Yeah Joe ... used it on my first house and it melted the wood ... I think I mixed it with too much SPQR ... my bad! :-)