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Impossible to make a successful career trading


Starting a new thread at the recommendation of the moderator.
If this were true, then we would expect system traders to have better results, but they fall into the 1% category too.

By the way, your trading method falls completely within the realm of chance as I've been saying, the only reason you don't "see it" is because of the small number of trades you're doing.

There are people who follow the same method with stocks. They wait years for a "dead" stock to show signs of life, buy it and hold it for several more years.

This buy and hold strategy is based on the assumption that the American economy will continue to grow as it did during the twentieth century, will may not be a valid assumption going forward.

As I've said repeatedly, as the number of round-turn iterations goes up, the effects of luck and chance become more apparent. A long term buy and hold strategy has exactly the same odds of failure as day trading.

quote:
Originally posted by rainman99

MM, Most people loose trading, that I have no dought. Most people think that 5-10% of traders make it. I belive its under 1%, although I dont have any proof of that. I also believe the reason most traders fail is that cant stick to a system(rules with proper money management). Most people should actually quit because there is know way they will every stick to a sytem even if it is a proven winning system. Most people simply cant do it( I wont go into all the reasons they wont but its lengthy). Let me give you and everyone on this board a very simple system for trading the comodity markets that I have been using for almost 14 years now. I look to buy comodities when they are hiting 20 year lows and then I sell them for a profit when they go back up(sometimes I hold for years, most can not do this). Of course I never catch the exact bottom and I never even come close to selling at the exact top, doesnt matter to me though. Anyone remember $2 corn, $3 gold, $5 silver, Oj at 70 and coffee at 50 and so on. It doesnt matter to me that I just gave everyone a winning system because less than 1% will take advantage if it. Hope this helps everyone

Martinez,

The odds are in my favor not yours. Which is all that matters to me, I could base my whole life on "what ifs" and never really live. Is there a chance of failure? absolutely..But the odds favor the player. It doesn't matter if I run into 11 losses in a row, if the 12th time is a winner then it will pay for all the losses. And as the game progresses I could afford to lose 13, 14, 15, 20, 30, times in a row and how often does that happen?
do you know the odds? Can you say that your trading method gives you a number (like 1.2:1 or something.)?

quote:
Originally posted by CharterJoe

Martinez,

The odds are in my favor not yours. Which is all that matters to me, I could base my whole life on "what ifs" and never really live. Is there a chance of failure? absolutely..But the odds favor the player. It doesn't matter if I run into 11 losses in a row, if the 12th time is a winner then it will pay for all the losses. And as the game progresses I could afford to lose 13, 14, 15, 20, 30, times in a row and how often does that happen?

Every day is different, but the same... I have posted my numbers before and you said there's not a long enough time period in my results so I don't see the point to post the same thing to you again.
Hey mmartinez,

I’ve been open minded as best I can when reading your posts (though I disagree with your position from my own experience). You’ve provided information from the realm of "ideas" while requesting “real world” proof. Joe has described his history in “conversation” with you here … and Jim Kane as well. Obviously, I’m not going to dive into mathematics and postulate anything here.

But regarding point and counterpoint in the debating process … on another thread, there was an offer to call, contact or get in touch with a guy named Don Miller regarding “real world” performance I believe.

Have you contacted him? That would lend credibility to what you are posting here based upon the topic and threads and your overall position … let me know.

Respectfully,

MonkeyMeat
And what did Don Miller say or provide ... and post it here whether it supports (or detracts from) your position on trading.
Buying commodities when they hit extreme lows is not the same as buying equities at extreme lows. Even I know that there is a .00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001% chance that when I buy corn at 2 that the whold world could deciede to stop eating corn and I guess they could stop using it for animal feed and corn could go to zero(laughable isnt it). This is where money management comes into play(never risk more than 5% of your account on any one trade.
Anyway MM, It does make sense to me that you have a very high education and your probably successful at whatever you do, but the higher the education usually means failure in the market. I have a theory on this but its too long to go into. Best to you though
yes actually I talked to him on the phone at length. He asked me to keep the details private - he actually shared his account figures and cell phone number with me. But you know, one of the first things out of his mouth was that he does not recommend anybody trade. He said he will not allow his kids to pursue a trading career when they get older. He said he has seen extremely few successful traders.

where we diverge is that he thinks his success has been due to "skill." I say luck. Apparently he's been doing it for five or six years.

I may ask him sometime to explain his trading method to me. I believe he used to make this available a couple years ago. So maybe I can just ask him to provide me those materials. He seemed like he wanted to discuss it with me. In any event, I'd be curious to look at it.

He said he would provide me with account statements, but as of yet, I haven't seen them.

quote:
Originally posted by MonkeyMeat

And what did Don Miller say or provide ... and post it here whether it supports (or detracts from) your position on trading.

quote:
Originally posted by MonkeyMeat

Hey mmartinez,

I’ve been open minded as best I can when reading your posts



That's all I ask. I appreciate your openmindedness. I don't ask that you agree with me, just that you consider what I'm saying.

Learning to make money has more to do with learning how not to lose money. I started making money when I focused on simple day trading rules for my day trades using tight stops and simple pivot points, support and resistance numbers. It really isn't rocket science unless you insist on making it that way.

Trading alone doesn't help.
The same argument can be made for starting a business. Just a any regular business, not a trading business. How many are started every year? How many fail in the 1st year, 2 years, 5 years?

I don't know the number but it is a very high percentage >75%.

Of the ones that continue doing business, how many are highly profitable. That's even less of a percentage.

So people that want to try and say you can't do it in trading and if you do its all luck.....well, that same exact statement applies to starting any business. I started and ran a successful business, looking back so many things came down to timing and luck. Ask any successful business person and I'm sure they will agree.

Just like poker. Skill only gets you so far and puts you in a position to get lucky. You still have to get lucky to win. But the more skill you have the more your odds of getting lucky increase are.

I have pondered this topic quite extensively. Pretty much after most losing days. After my head gets clear, I always come back to the same thought.......Isn't this the same as running a business. Every day can't be good or great. There are plenty of bad days. Running a business....somedays you lose valuable employee....how much does that cost??? some days you lose sales deals....how much does that cost??? Some days you lose customers....how much does that cost???

So just like anything else that is worth doing. It's hard and can't be a straight line up. There is always a competing force that acts as resistance.