No registration required! (Why?)

If are contemplating becoming an ES trader, or are currently struggling/undisciplined, I whole-heartedly recommend Trisha Oligivie's e-book course. It is simple, conservative and will produce profits if followed exactly as taught.

In a business where most vendors are selling worthless junk for a high price, she is offering a value service for peanuts. If you are brand new to trading, I'd also recommend you attend her chat room where she teaches while trading her own cash.

devon, I'm pleased to hear your doing well with Trisha's methods and mentoring. She is a real diamond in the rough, aka educational trading services.
This was sent to Trisha's subscribers.

The cool thing here is that taking the first months results, for example, which seem to be representative of all the months posted, and using DT's calculator here:

starting with a \$10K account, it would only take 293 trading days to be a millionaire! That assumes no issues with liquidity as contract size increases and so on. Wow, I think I need to start trading this system, I know for sure I can't even think about a 10,000% return in just over a year, I'm still impressed by the top hedge fund guys who get in the 30-something percent a year consistently.
The average winner is .9375 using the expected value equation:

(1.75*.75) + (-1.50*.25) = .9375

so you can duplicate the calculation if you want.
Originally posted by jimkane

The cool thing here is that taking the first months results, for example, which seem to be representative of all the months posted, and using DT's calculator here:

starting with a \$10K account, it would only take 293 trading days to be a millionaire! That assumes no issues with liquidity as contract size increases and so on. Wow, I think I need to start trading this system, I know for sure I can't even think about a 10,000% return in just over a year, I'm still impressed by the top hedge fund guys who get in the 30-something percent a year consistently.

Sounds like a no-brainer, but do you have the discipline to compound your winnings?
Originally posted by phantasmagoria

Originally posted by jimkane

The cool thing here is that taking the first months results, for example, which seem to be representative of all the months posted, and using DT's calculator here:

starting with a \$10K account, it would only take 293 trading days to be a millionaire! That assumes no issues with liquidity as contract size increases and so on. Wow, I think I need to start trading this system, I know for sure I can't even think about a 10,000% return in just over a year, I'm still impressed by the top hedge fund guys who get in the 30-something percent a year consistently.

Sounds like a no-brainer, but do you have the discipline to compound your winnings?
To me the no-brainer is knowing that if you don't have the discipline you have no business trading in the first place.

But forget the compounding, using that same first month as an example, this is making \$1875 per contract per month. With a \$5K margin that's 37.5% return per month. Wiht the \$3K margin I see many traders in here use, it's more like 62.5% return per month, no compounding. I'm just so out of it, so antiquated, I'm still fascinated by hedge fund returns that hit in the 30-something percent per year, you know, the best of the best (and I know, hedge funds aren't the same as private traders...).

Here we have perhaps over 60% per month consistently, all for free or essentially free, and it's not snake oil at all, it's real, and true, and great stuff, all given away and posted here, I'm told. Now that's a great deal, eh? I'm thinking I need to give up what I'm doing because this sounds too good to be true, and since it is true, I want to get on it before it is realized by too many how great this is and it becomes available only for \$10K or something.
I guess here's my point. Keep in mind, I don't know the person this topic is about, I have no stake in the game, and my comments are not directed at this service, they are 'forum' comments. All in the effort to make the forum a better place for all who use it to try to better ourselves.

Look, if someone posted they sell a service, whether it is 'cheap' or not, and they posted results showing they made like 60+% per month, what would be the first thing that would happen in here? Bingo, where are your statements. No statements, take a hike. No matter what you did with the system yourself, no matter how good the calls the person made in their room, no statements, no dice. That's not me talking, that's the forum consensus. In fact, I used to argue against statements in this forum until the pressure was so great I finally came over to their side.

Now, as we all know, what happens in sim mode when the average winners or losers are say about a point? The 'slippage' and fills become critical, and many systems that look awesome in sim are useless in the real world. In a case like this anything that isn't done with real money, as far as results, are not only of no practical use, but can be way, way off the mark, or so it has been pointed out time and again in this forum. So, here we have posted results that are what, real trading or sim? If sim, there is zero reason they should be posted. If real, then statements should be posted, not a summary of the results.

Imagine any other thread in here posting actual trading results, just not via statements. It would get shredded. And I'm not picking on Phant here, I consider Phant our best watchdog here and all-around good guy, but he's the one posting the non-statement results. And we all know, admit it Phant, if someone else posted that, for a service that charges (albeit very little), you would rip them a new one so fast our heads would spin. I'm just saying, when I see over 60+% per month claims and no statements, I keep saying to myself 'Phant will be along any time soon, or Monkey, and rip this sucker a new one.' And then I scrolled back and saw Phant posted that!

I think we should be more consistent in here, that's all. I'd like to see some actual trading statements any time I see 60+% per month results that require precise fills. Can we get them here? If not, I'm not sure this thread is of any use to anyone.
Originally posted by jimkane

The average winner is .9375 using the expected value equation:

(1.75*.75) + (-1.50*.25) = .9375

so you can duplicate the calculation if you want.

Jim, I did the calculations using all six months provided in the performance table:

avg. win % = 74.3 %
avg. loss % = 25.7 %

avg. win = 1.50
avg. loss = 1.50

avg win/loss ratio = 1.00

positive expectancy = + 0.729

(subtract out the new transaction tax , leaves 0.23 ?!!? ...j/k)

It will take you approximately 390 trading days (546 calendar days) to become a millionare. Your target date to have at least \$Million in your trading account is 11-Jun-2011

I cannot help but wonder a little about that average win%, it seems a touch high to me. I am not saying it cannot be done, but it does raise the question in my mind because scalping is not easy and most newer traders that try scalping the ES cannot sustain that high performance level day in and day out for 6 months. (I personally have not met any new or average traders that have produced that level of performance month in and month out.) I guess this goes to my seemingly never ending concern of unrealistic expectations....

Most traders I meet have a wiz bang trading system ( indicator or magic pattern or secret number system...) that on paper produces the type of win% we see here, seems to hold up well in simulated trading, but in live trading quickly reverts to the mean 50%. Combine a real world 50% win rate with that 1.0 win/loss ratio, throw in a few mistakes and commissions and all the other trading business expenses (don't forget to add in the vendor fee for the system), and it's a net losing proposition. I am not implying that is the case with this system, which like Jim I know absolutely nothing about, but I am suggesting prospective clients might be wise to couch your expectations up front. Averaging this level of trading performance is well outside the normal experience for most people that try to scalp the ES market.

I wonder what the trading account statement looks like for the average "Easy E-mini Trade" customer. Does the average customer sitting in the member chat room consistently match these performance numbers ? Are we talking about trading room full of freshly minted millionaires ?
Those results were sent to people who ordered the e-book and I have no idea if they are close to what her real trading account looks like, but she has stated many times when I was in the room that she takes those same trades in a live account. In this instance, she clearly states those are her calls made in the room without the disclaimer they are in sim or hypothetical.

Long before she even had a room, she told me the trades she takes based on e-book setups were almost 80% winners based on 3 contracts with an up and out scale method, so she is consistent if you believe her and I do. After all, what was she trying to do a year before she had a room (which was basically opened because her e-book members wanted live help)? Induce me to spend \$50 bucks on her e-book? Let's get serious here.

So, here's where I'm coming from until someone proves otherwise. She is an honest person who has a very conservative trading style and charges very little for services, as Jim has duly noted. If she charged alot, then I would have to satisfy myself that she trades in a real account, if and only if, she makes that submission.

Frankly, when I joined her room, I was satisfied that she was the real deal so getting her trading statements wasn't important to me--I went with my gut and if she was selling snakeoil in her room, then I would realize it immediately and be out a \$100. Big whoop. But that wasn't the case and it was money well spent.

Jim is a smart guy but comparing the performance of a hedge fund with lots of money under management and an individual trading 3 contracts in ES on a miniscule capital base is apples to donuts. I think he is just being a bit dramatic rather than mystified.
Thanks phatasma.

If Trish can help an ES trader stop losing money, that alone is well worth \$100. If she can help them develop better trading habits, improve the level of their trading skill, that is worth a lot more than \$100.

I agree there is a world of difference between trading a basic \$15,000 retail account (3 ES contracts) and controlling \$15 million in the futures market. I remember watching a 60 minutes piece last year on T.Boone Pickens, they were in his trading room, he was talking about sitting on an open loss of just over \$1 billion in the oil futures market when the piece was being filmed. He got caught long when oil broke back below \$100 and the markets collapsed. Confirms my motto: the first loss is the best lost. He should have stopped out on the break, instead he added, and added, and well ended up on 60 minutes... ego.
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Originally posted by hangten1

[quote]Originally posted by MassiveCashTeam

Great request, but I don't think there is an educator/vendor that does provide documented results but one. And this trading room, is not for me per the reasons I stated in my original post about my experience with a few trading rooms.

This is EOTProLive, when in the live trading room, upon request, he immediately shows several NinjaTrader performance profit graphs (daily, weekly, monthly etc). He is not shy in pointing out his daily/weekly losses. Overall, he (Bill) is profitable with his black box indicators. The reason why I dont like this room, is just that, blackbox subscription indicators . What if I am successful in his room, and I quit my day job. Then I'm making a living solely in his trading room. Then what happens if Bill and EOTProLive goes away? out of business? or he decides to shut it down? then what am I left with? I'm left with no day job, no EOTProLive and no blackbox indicators? I'll be living on the streets. Thats my main concern.....

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I've read your posts - you have subscribed to every trading service on the internet and rarely spend more than a month with each one...I'd worry more about your lack of committment than I would about what happens after you quit your day job. In fact, don't ever quit your day job.