ES S/R Map for 11/5/09

On the gf's computer once again ... but after watching price action during the session today and looking at charts on multiple time frames ... this is what I distilled down as potential significant price levels for Thursday. 1047-1047.50 is a "minor" area (should have noted that on the chart).



Hope this is helpful ... and open to feedback and analysis from all. Let's share some ideas here ... good stuff!

my homework says support 1027, 1033, 1037.5, resistance 1057, 1052
1042.5 is the 50d EMA, we seem to be rotating around this number all week.
I did go short today at 1057, but didn't have the courage to hold through the chop around 1056. Gotta trust in my homework more!
Note that it took until today to tag the weekly pp1050.25. Has anyone done a study on the probability of hitting the weekly pp on any given week?

Thanks phileo for your analysis ... am tossing in a Daily bar chart to keep the bigger picture in mind too.

I tracked it for a long time...I'll have to find the thread...something like "weekly Influence".....it is a lot..somewhere over 80% ..

quote:

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Originally posted by phileo

my homework says support 1027, 1033, 1037.5, resistance 1057, 1052
1042.5 is the 50d EMA, we seem to be rotating around this number all week.
I did go short today at 1057, but didn't have the courage to hold through the chop around 1056. Gotta trust in my homework more!
Note that it took until today to tag the weekly pp1050.25. Has anyone done a study on the probability of hitting the weekly pp on any given week?

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I tracked it for a year at this thread.......
http://www.mypivots.com/forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=1349&whichpage=13

critical magic number zone is 46 - 48.50...lots of volume there yesterday fired off and the close ended up there too....we have the 61 area up top and that 37.50 - 38 below......so everything else in between is just FLUFF until volume tips it's hand......no minus 4 in the first 90 minutes yesterday so I'll be watching to see if they can push it that way ..

Ps I never post the previous days highs or lows but that is a given as an obvious area to watch.....overnight trying to respect the key zones so far....rve

Great posts, MonkeyMeat. Thank you. My 2 cents - 10 day ATR is about 22. Overnight low is 39. A first hour short around 61 - 62 might work all day. Likewise a long from 26.5ish. Thanks again, very helpful post.

light short at 48.75..target is stops below the 45.50.......hopefully won't need to dig outta this in the day session

2 contract loser at 50.25...will wait till day session now

trying again from 52.50..first magnet is either 61 or 48.50....hopefully for me it will be the 48.50

small long at 50.50 off Wkly/Daily Mid-Pvt area ... bullish bias for a scalp ... uh, out at 55.75 as I was typing this ... was nearing Daily R1 and a potential price resistance zone (wasn't expecting that kind of move, only looking for 2-3 points)

quote:

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Originally posted by koolblue

TOMORROW IS UNEMPLOYMENT DAY!!! And something to keep in mind. This could be one of those days that drives newbies wacky!...a small decline into the report, then great unemployment news comes out , causeing a pop back up to 1073,or even 1076.75!!! Then just as suddenly the market reverses as everyone remembers that Bennie and the Feds just said they wont consider raising rates till unemployment improves!! Remember? so perversly, they then decline the thing the rest of the day!!! lol... just thinking out loud!..but i wonder!?!

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The reason for the chop is that good data (good for the indices) has been triggering the purchase of U.S. bonds to offset a declining dollar.