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WEEKEND UPDATE 11- 07-09


FIRST LET S PUT O/N OUR BEAR SKIN SUITS. THE MARKET GOT EXTREMELY OVERBOUGHT AT 1099. WE HAD A NICE DECLINE TO 1026 TO RELIEVE THAT CONDITION. BUT O/N THE DAILY CHARTS THE TECHNICAL DIVERGENCIES O/N MANY FRONTS WERE HORRENDOUS! THIS IS JUST 20 YEARS OF EXPERIENCE GUESSING ,BUT I WONDER IF ENOUGH TIME HAS GONE BY TO SATISFY THIS. I HAVE AN OUTSTANDING DAILY PROJECTION OF AROUND 986 OUTSTANDING UNTILL 1099 IS TOUCHED AGAIN!


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NOW LETS OUT OUR BULL CAPS O/N. FRANKLY ITS A LITTLE TOUGH TO DO RIGHT NOW ,BUT ILL GIVE IT A SHOT.WHEN I TURNED BULLISH AROUND 665 ONTHE ES IT LOOKED LIKE THE WORLD WAS GONNA END. SINCE THEN WE HAVE CONSISTANTLY GONE THRU EVERY KEY AREA (AFTER THE REQUITE PULLBACKS OF COURSE!) O/N OUR WAY TO ONE RECOVERY HIGH AFTER ANOTHER. THE WAVE RIDERS (WHO ALSO CORRECTLY EXPECTED A MASSIVE REBOUND) HAVE BEEN PICKING A TOP AT EVERY SWING (AROUND 840, 956, 1017,AND NOW 1099) AND BEEN PREMATURE EACH TIME! I CAN SAY THAT 1099 WAS NOT , I REPEAT ,NOT A KEY NUMBER FOR ME! (NOT THAT IM ALWAYS RIGHT EITHER,BUT A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE 1100'S WOULD HAVE MADE ME A LOT MORE NERVOUS!). NEW HIGHS HAVE CONTINUED TO EXPAND, STARTING AROUND 800OR SO ES TO A PEAK AT 1099, WHILE NEW LOWS STAYED VERY LOW ,EVEN O/N EVERY DECLINE. JUST THIS LAST ONE DID THAT CHANGE! AND WHILE THAT MAY BE A SEVERE WARNING SIGNAL WE HAVE TO REMEMBER THAT AT THE RECENT LOW THEY WERE IN THE SAME LEVEL AS THE 865 LOW, AND YOU SAW WHAT HAPPENED NEXT.A VERY NICE INTERMEDIATE TERM RALLY. THE FED IS NOT YET GIVING AN INDICATION OF RAISING RATES (THO THAT IS SURELY COMING SOON). REMEMBER ALSO THAT THE GOVERNMENT, THE FED, AND ALL OF THE HEAVILY INVESTED INSTITUTIONS AND MUTUAL FUND HAVE A VESTED INTEREST IN THE MARKET GOING UP. THATS WHY BULL MARKETS DIE HARD. THEY CERTAINLY DIE, BUT USUALLY WAY OVER WHAT ANYBODY THINKS THEY SHOULD! REMEMBER ALSO ,THIS IS SEASONALLY THE BEST TIME OF YEAR FOR THE MARKETS! FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS ANY WAY UNTILL NEXT YEARS 4 YEAR CYCLE BRINGS IT ALL CRASHING DOWN AGAIN.
SUMMARY: I DONT KNOW IF THE BULL MARKET SINCE MARCH HAS ENDED. I DONT CARE EITHER. I HIGHLY SUSPECT THIS NICE LITTLE RALLY SINCE 1026 MAY BE OVER, OR MORE LIKELY MAY END VERY VERY SOON. I FEEL LIKE WE MAY NEED MORE PRICE ,OR AT THE VERY LEAST ,MORE TIME BEFORE NEW HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE. I'LL BE WATCHING THE PROJECTIONS IVE BEEN HARPING ABOUT ALL WEEK , AND LOOKING FOR DOWNSIDE ACTION FOR THE NEARTERM.... TIME WILL TELL!!!