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Daily Candle Stick Charts - The Open


A friend of mine sent me this and has given me the go-ahead to post it here to see if anybody is interested in this pre-market update.


Wednesday, Dubai said it wants forbearance and a moratorium to restructure and reform its construction debt obligations and sends the Markets into a tizzy on Thanksgiving Day when US folks are watching parades, football games and turkeys roasting;

Sometime around 2:30 am on Friday, there was a spike down to 1067, a -41.75 point / 3.8% drop from Wednesday's 1108.75 close;

Friday, which was supposed to be a lazy 1/2 day, was quite involved as the US traders asserted their presence to try and bring things back so the US traders wouldn't get gutted by that Dubai news;

Running the risk of being repetitious, don't ever leave a trade open overnight for holidays, weekends, or daily unless you want to cast your fate to the winds when our Markets are closed and strange acting strangers can take you to the cleaners;

By paying attention to that developing news late Thanksgiving Day, an adjustment was made to Friday's Pivot Points by shifting away from the expected S2 - S2 - PP - R1 - R2 in favor of S4 - S3 - S2 - S1 - PP;

That caused the Normal Distribution Bell Curve to be marked as:

S4 = 1081 S3 = 1090 S2 (Surrogate PP) = 1099 S1 = 1104 Primary Pivot = 1108

That adjustment worked like a charm as Friday gave us

O = 1078.75 H = 1098.25 L = 1077.75 (at the open) C = 1089.50

leaving us within a downward adjusted Trading Range between S4 and S2 and the basis for participating in the stunted bounce back once 1077.75 held with 1083 then bought and covered at 1093;

Sunday brought news that over the "Standstill" period Dubai unilaterally said is now in place, the United Arab Emirates will cover Dubai's back;

Is the crisis over? Can't tell right now but one thing's sure;

There are a good number of western banks, including but not limited to C, that have expose to that approximate $85 Billion Dollar Debt package Dubai is holding back on;

Pay attention to the electronic media to see if you hear them start talking about the second shoe of a Double Dip Recession being dropped - - - this time REIT and Commercial Real Estate mortgage packages;

Stay on your toes and take as much from the Markets as possible for as long as possible;

And that brings us to today's Pivot Points:

S2 = 1049 S1 = 1069 Primary Pivot = 1087 R2 = 1107 R2 = 1125

Look at the whopping 76 point Spread between S2 and R2!

Volatility Incorporated and in Spades!

$VIX, which was slumping to the 20s, popped to 25.95 before closing at 24.85 = 15.5 points of potential Intraday Price Movement;

Somehow, that 15.5 points of potential Intraday Price Movement seems strikingly suspicious;

Friday's close was 1089.50, some 18.75points below Wednesday's close of 1108.25;

1108.25 has opened as a Gap Above;

1006.50 and 1047.75 remain as open Gaps Below;

Mark your Normal Distribution Bell Curve accordingly;

Today's open was 1090.00

Remember: Just get on the correct side of the Markets and stay there;

Let's go grab hold of today's inevitable Trigger Candle(s) . . .

One other thing: this is Nov 30th, the final Calendar Day of the month when Redemption Notice must be given;

If not given, Futures Contract Holders run the exceedingly expensive risk of have to take physical possession of a plethora of hard and/or soft commodities;

Just remember what happened to Amaranth back in the Summer of 2007 . . .
Uncertainty prevailed at the open with wild swings between the mid-1090s and mid-1080s as the Bulls and Bears slugged it out during the first half-hour to see which side would win out;

As it turned out, neither side won;

But that early sparring set the stage for a fantastic trading day;

Right after 110:45, it became apparent that 1096.50 wouldn't hold (it became the Intraday High) and a strong Sell Signal came into play allowing 1093.50 to be shorted;

That short was covered within the half-hour when price got bogged down and 1088.50 was bought back to close;

Things kicked around the mid- to high- 1080s for quite some time, lulling one into a semi-conscious state;

Yet, it was worth sticking around for the late afternoon because, at 3:10, 1089.50 proved to be a good, takeable Buy and the long was entered;

20 minutes later, 1093.50 was sold to close that little trade;

Interestingly, yesterday's Range was all of 11.50 points, running from 1096.50 to 1085.00;

That's interesting because Price just hovered around the Primary Pivot (1087) that was in play for the day;

A lot of that "indecision" seems to be related to the unfolding Dubai World situation and its spillover to banks and financial institutions;

And, that brings us to today's Pivot Points:

S2 = 1079 S1 = 1089 Primary Pivot = 1092 R1 = 1100 R2 = 1106

27 point spread between S2 and R2 (compared to yesterday obnoxious 76 point spread);

1108.25 was an open Gap Above but it was filled this morning right after then open;

1066.50 and 1047.75 are open Gaps Below;

1093.00 was yesterday's close;

Mark your Normal Distribution Bell Curve accordingly;

Today's open was 1104.25 on a Gap Up creating yesterday's close as a Gap Below;

Retail Data before the Bell;

ISM, Construction Spending and Pending Home Sales at 10 o'clock which could move the Markets;

Remember: Just get on the correct side of the Markets and stay there;

Let's go grab hold of today's inevitable Trigger Candle(s) . . .

BTW - Bank of Japan is up to something and it can't be all that good . . .
Talk about an excrutiatingly slow day;

Yeah, they popped on an opening Gap Up (1104.25) that eventually took out that 1108.25 open Gap Above;

Yeah, they slid down to 1102.25;

Yeah, they pushed up to 1111.75;

But, boy, it was like being the only person in a big department store and nobody else is around;

And, notice how Intraday Price just kept circling around R2 (1106);

That's how ugly it was;

So, and as the old saw tells us, "When there's nothing to do, don't do nothing";

That's the oblique way of say no trades were attempted resulting in a wasted day;

It's interesting to note, however, that the day's 1111.75 Intraday High is up against the November 16th High (1112.25) which marked the highest level since those March Lows;

It may very well be 1112.25 is Stiff Resistance so pay attention to any challenge of that price level;

This morning, Guest "Talking Heads" on CNBC said they don't see much more of anything through the end of the year with $SPX ranging between 1100 and 1125;

And that brings us to today's Pivot Points:

S2 = 1085 S1 = 1097 Primary Pivot = 1104 R1 = 1116 R2 = 1124

39 point Spread between S2 and R2;

No open Gap Above;

1093.00 has opened as a Gap Below so it and 1066.50 and 1047.75 are open Gaps Below;

Yesterday's close was 1108.75;

$VIX = 21.92 = 13.7 points of potential Intraday Price Movement;

Today's opening strike was 1108.25 and it looks like things will be jammed up;

Mark your Normal Distribution Bell Curve accordingly;

Employment Data (Challenger and ADP) before the open, Timmy Boy before the Senate Agricultural Committee testifying about OTC Derivatives, EIA Petroleum Inventory at 10:30, and Beige Book at 2 p.m.;

Remember: Just get on the correct side of the Markets and stay there;

Let's go grab hold of today's inevitable Trigger Candle(s) . . .

Oh, yeah, "How about Tiger?"

"U da Man!!!!!!!"
Another lollygagging day;

1108.25 open, 1115.50 high, 1104.25 low, 1107.75 close;

Only 0.50 pointa from Open to Close and that's a Doji if there ever was one as the Markets are displaying a lack of conviction;

11.25 point total range;

All the action was in the morning;

The Intraday High was hit within the first 45 minutes and it looked like it could hold but that wasn't the case;

Remember Wednesday's remark about 1112 being stiff Resistance;

Well it was and still is;

That 1115.50 didn't have enough drive behind it so it was just a matter of time before price would retreat to the 1112 Resistance level;

Once there, all that was needed was a Sell Signal and it showed up like clock work right at 11:00;

That Short Trade ran out of gas at 11:22 and closed by buying back 1108;

That's all - - - 4 stinking points all day long;

But, those Guest "Talking Heads" on CNBC did tell us they anticipate Range Trading from now through year's end;

And that brings us to today's Pivot Points:

S2 = 1098 S1 = 1103 Primary Pivot = 1109 R1 = 1114 R2 = 1121

Notice the distinct shift to the right on the sliding scale;

23 point Spread between S2 and R2;

No open Gaps Above;

1066.50 and 1047.75 remain open Gaps Below;

$VIX = 21.12 = 13.2 points of potential Intraday Price Movement;

Yesterday's close was 1107.75;

Today's open was 1110.50 on a mild Gap Up;

Pay attention to 1112 Resistance;

BTW: Late yesterday afternoon word came out that BAC will be repaying its TARP obligation and will raise some $18.8 Billion in capital through a preferred offering;

That could be a positive driver;

Seems everyone's forgotten about Dubai World's "standstill" from last Wednesday;

Remember: Just get on the correct side of the Markets and stay there;

Let's go grab hold of today's inevitable Trigger Candle(s) . . .

[Edited with updated info at 9:46am ET on 12/3]