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Philosophical ramblings and blues notes


Hi Everyone,

I have decided to give a whirl at posting a trading journal.
In the journal I have asked everyone not to post questions or comments in my journal. I am not looking for feedback on the journal - at this time.

From some research on trading journals one of the items mentioned is the emotional and mental state at the time of the trade. One example was "you're late getting to the office because of taking the kids to school and traffic and are in a rush and don't have time for your regular daily preparation, the market's moving and you rush a trade giving a bad entry."

For myself, one of the factors that may effect my trades is current things on investing I am reading or new ideas I am working with. So I have started this thread for some of those factors.

On these more general or philosophical ideas I am receptive to hearing other peoples thoughts and that is why I started this thread in the Lounge.

I'll post an example.
Originally posted by feng456

Sorry dude but if you knew anything about how probabiliy works you would know that the chance would always be 50% for red/black in roulettes and so on (i dont gamble but there are only two colours right?) regardless of what came up before.

For example if you tossed a coin 100 times and came up with all heads, the chance of the next coin toss being heads/tails is still 50%.


Hi Feng,

I know lots about probability.(the theory of probability as taught in university and the statistical courses). I also know quite a bit about the history of investing including the debacle of the Long Term Capital whose failure would have brought down the US financial system had not the Fed intervened and forced a group of banks to bail them out.

You are one of the people who is struggling with no having gains which motivated my post. I made the post with the attempt to help you.

You may wish to open you mind rather than talk down to me about elementary stats. If you keep doing the same thing over and over you will get the same poor results.
Originally posted by day trading

Originally posted by blue

But, how to know which day not to trade?

It occurred to me that the beginning way to answer this question is to track the results in a little table Monday to Friday across the top and the dates down the left, filling in the table with the win/loss for the day.

You might get tripped up by the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle with this. If for example you found that Mon, Tue, and Wed were always loosing days and Thu and Fri were winning days then you might want to cut out Mon to Wed but by doing so you might find that the practice (for example) that you got Mon through Wed is what made Thu and Fri wining days.

However, this is a weak theory and I think that there is more merit in your idea than my theory.


Thanks for your thoughts DT.

I am not sure which approach is best. My feeling is that keeping an open mind and tracking results can be helpful in determining potential areas for improvement.

For example, one person advised including the conditions of the trade in your journal. He gave the example, if you are rushed and didn't have the time to go through your pre-trade morning routine because you had to drive the kids to school include that. Did your computer crash? Did you spill your coffee over your lap? Fight with your spouse?

Even small things can have an impact on our emotional state. If you notice that these things match to losing trades then that is important information.

----
I didn't include the things to track and only used day of the week as an example. I purposely wanted to leave people's minds open and let them track what they intuitively felt might be significant for them.

George Angel in Sniper Trader found a correlation to market action based on the day of the week and ten years of data. He then went on to qualify and refine that ... if Monday was strong with a closing of the one index of greater than 65% then Tuesday was likely to be....

There are many people who follow the cycle system (it is based on differential to the full moon - with different full moons in a repeating sequence.)
http://www.khalsaspad.com/index.php?name=Forums&file=viewtopic&t=2308


Also see A 4 DAY CYCLE TRADING SYSTEM at http://www.khalsaspad.com/ under Longer Term & Discussion Threads:
http://www.khalsaspad.com/index.php?name=Forums&file=viewtopic&t=314


There are lots of things that people with open minds might track.
Any idea if Khalsa has a link to his forums which don't require that you sign in to see the text?
Originally posted by day trading

Any idea if Khalsa has a link to his forums which don't require that you sign in to see the text?


I believe you must register
http://www.khalsaspad.com/index.php?name=Your_Account&file=register

(not the paid subscription or free trial subscription.)
here's a screen snap of Ubend's map
Click image for original size
temp1
GIVING THANKS: The Bible teaches us to give thanks day and night. You should give thanks for everything you have received, bless everyone who has helped you and when you pray for anything give thanks in advance. Say, "Lord, Jehovah, the Divine Power, I am thankful because I know my prayer is going to be answered." This is showing your faith and then if you act and work in accordance with the Divine Law your prayer will be answered. Read everything in the Bible under praise and giving thanks and you will learn how important it is. No matter how small a favor someone may do for you, show your appreciation by thanking them. You will feel better and they will feel better. I have heard people say, I have paid so and so for what he did for me; I do not owe him any thanks. By refusing to give thanks to the other person and blessing him he was hurting himself and putting off the good that might come to him. During my life I have had many employees and always felt that after I had paid them for their work I still owed them thanks, if their work was satis­factory. I have paid bonuses and given presents to employees after they rended me good and satisfactory service. I have always profited by doing this, and found employees ready and willing to render me more service than I paid for.

The Magic Word -WD Gann Pg 53
"No matter how small a favor someone may do for you, show your appreciation by thanking them...."

Thanks Blue for sharing the above.
I've been telling my kids this Magic Word as one of the "Lessons for Life" along with the Golden Rule.

It's good to know, (and surpised I might say), that the legendary trader, WD Gann, actually wrote about this.

http://www.webtrading.com/opportunities/offer-1.htm
DISCLAIMER:

I have NO financial interest or whatsoever to the web link below.
(I just Googled the subject and the thing came up.)

Originally posted by leob

"No matter how small a favor someone may do for you, show your appreciation by thanking them...."

Thanks Blue for sharing the above.
I've been telling my kids this Magic Word as one of the "Lessons for Life" along with the Golden Rule.

It's good to know, (and surpised I might say), that the legendary trader, WD Gann, actually wrote about this.

http://www.webtrading.com/opportunities/offer-1.htm
Many thanks Leob.

May God keep you and bless and your family.