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7am-9am ES breakout


5 points which ever comes first. I am going to run 2.5points later.

10/06 +5
10/07 +5
10/08 -5
10/09 +5
10/12 +5
10/13 +5
10/14 -5
10/15 +5
10/16 -5
10/19 -5
10/20 +5
10/21 +5
10/22 -5
10/23 -5
10/26 +5
10/27 +5
10/28 +5
10/29 -5
10/30 -5
11/02 -5
11/03 +5
11/04 +5
11/05 +5
11/06 +5
11/09 -5
11/10 -5
11/11 -5
11/12 +5
11/13 +5
11/16 +5
11/17 -5
11/18 +5
11/19 -5
11/20 +5
11/23 +5
11/24 +5
11/25 -5
11/26 +5
11/27 +5
11/30 -5
12/01 +5
12/02 -5
12/03 -5
12/04 +5
12/07 -5
12/08 -5
12/09 +5
12/10 +5
12/14 -5
12/15 +5 (filled at the end of the next day)
12/16 -5 (trade went in the opposite side of the previous days signal, while still in the trade)
12/17 trade open



29 winners
22 losers

gross profit of $1,750.00 per contract.

largest draw down was 15points.

Largest string of profits was 20 points.

Conclusion is this would have to be traded with a fairly large number of contracts since its less than 60% accurate. Looks like is going to be a nice addition to the automated group.
Originally posted by CharterJoe

...largest draw down was 15 points.

That would be these days?
10/29 -5
10/30 -5
11/02 -5
So by largest draw down you are talking about the account if you'd started on that first day of the longest string of draw downs? Or just the largest string of losses? (Because the account wouldn't have been at a draw then.)
Meant largest number of consecutive losses.
57% win rate is pretty good. Do you think this is sustainable?
I just tested 22 days at 2.5 pts. had 16 winners, 6 lossers .
The strategy looks good to me. My only concern is the short sample period.

As a comparison try running a random entry strategy over the same period and see if that comes up with a similar winning strategy over that number of days. i.e. test that the money management that's being applied to this strategy consistently beats a random entry strategy.
10/06 -2.5
10/07 +2.5
10/08 +2.5
10/09 +2.5
10/12 -2.5
10/13 +2.5
10/14 +2.5
10/15 +2.5
10/16 +2.5
10/19 +2.5
10/20 +2.5
10/21 +2.5
10/22 +2.5
10/23 -2.5
10/26 -2.5
10/27 +2.5
10/28 +2.5
10/29 -2.5
10/30 -2.5
11/02 -2.5
11/03 +2.5
11/04 -2.5
11/05 -2.5
11/07 +2.5
11/08 -2.5
11/09 -2.5
11/10 -2.5
11/11 +2.5
11/12 +2.5
11/13 +2.5
11/16 -2.5
11/17 -2.5
11/18 +2.5
11/19 +2.5
11/20 +2.5
11/23 +2.5
11/24 +2.5
11/25 +2.5
11/26 +2.5
11/27 +2.5
11/30 +2.5
12/01 +2.5
12/02 +2.5
12/03 +2.5
12/04 +2.5
12/07 +2.5
12/08 +2.5
12/09 +2.5
12/10 -2.5
12/11 -2.5
12/14 +2.5
12/15 +2.5
12/16 -2.5
12/17 +2.5


37 winners
17 losers

gross $2500 per contract.

max consecutive loss; 3 days (-7.5 points)

max consecutive wins; 16 days (+40 points)


The reasons these systems work well is that the markets are becoming global and during this time (7-9) period most news in the Euro, and UK have already sunk in, and the US news is being digested. Even if there is no news this too effects the markets. But there is always some sort of news abroad. I am sure that you will see similar results in the Sydney, Tokyo, Euro, and UK news all over lap sometime in the 1:00am-3:00am EST time zone.
Hi Joe - thanks for the great trade idea.

Q: Entry at 5am - what determines if you go long or short. I assume that this trade idea is a long play each time (with stops at 2.5/5 etc).

Please clarify for the newbie - many thanks!
Originally posted by muzz211

Hi Joe - thanks for the great trade idea.

Q: Entry at 5am - what determines if you go long or short. I assume that this trade idea is a long play each time (with stops at 2.5/5 etc).

Please clarify for the newbie - many thanks!

muzz your welcome....

The idea is to box the high price and low price from 7am-9am EST. Go long if it goes one tick above that range, go short if it goes one tick below the low.
So, literally, with your 7-9am H/L determined, you enter afterwards one tick above or below that H/L.

Sounds really interesting. Let me know if I've got it right, I'd like to trade this idea and see how it works out.

Thanks again!
It has worked well so far today - over 2.5 points so far.
thank you very much