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ES short term Trading 5-03-10


Lots of numbers in the 88 - 92 zone..Confluence of weekly and daily PV numbers and the HVP is there...The weekly has HVP at 1189...should be a good magnet for those who can find longs. Right above is low volume (94-96)off the weekly so we need to watch that area closely if/when it gets up there. I personally wouldn't favor staying long above 92 as then we start falling into the low volume air pocket of the weekly.

We have previous weekly lows, key round numbers and S1 falling in the 75 - 77 area.

1200 - 1203 is next resistance as we have key numbers, HVP and the R1 level . That will be a challenge I think to get to on MOnday.

Lets see in the morning what has happened overnight...I'd like to see lower prices O/N to set up long trades in the morning.



Good luck tomorrow everyone.
Here's my Price Action S/R levels that I've got coming into Monday. The Red lines are the regular potential S/R levels and Magenta would be semi-significant. I've also included the Standard Wkly Pivots as Cyan dashed lines on the same 30-minute ES chart. Hope this is helpful as a map.

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es 30m sr for 5310
Originally posted by BruceM

Lots of numbers in the 88 - 92 zone..Confluence of weekly and daily PV numbers and the HVP is there...The weekly has HVP at 1189...should be a good magnet for those who can find longs. Right above is low volume (94-96)off the weekly so we need to watch that area closely if/when it gets up there. I personally wouldn't favor staying long above 92 as then we start falling into the low volume air pocket of the weekly.

We have previous weekly lows, key round numbers and S1 falling in the 75 - 77 area.

1200 - 1203 is next resistance as we have key numbers, HVP and the R1 level . That will be a challenge I think to get to on MOnday.

Lets see in the morning what has happened overnight...I'd like to see lower prices O/N to set up long trades in the morning.

Good luck tomorrow everyone.


Just to re-iterate:

1191.50=daily pp
1192.25= weekly pp
1192.50= daily POC

1195.25 - 1196.25 = weekly Low vol. node ("unfair price")
1194.25 = Friday breakout failure

1201.75= Thurs post trend consolidation lo, also a reaction point on Friday.
1205 = starting point for GS lawsuit breakdown, P.G.S. debt downgrade breakdown, Friday breakdown.

Monday will be the confluence of a couple special patterns:
MATD - in my estimation, the initial MATD oscillation range will be 1180 - 1192. If the GLOBEX session stays within this range, then during RTH, I will look for long setups below 1183-ish, short setups above 1190-ish.

1st (trading day) of the month && Mutual Fund Monday -
If price < open in the afternoon, then I will look for long setups that targets the opening price.
If price > open in the afternoon, then I will look for long setups that target RTH swing hi.
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esvolumeprofile
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I'm having trouble opening that Pivot farm chart to full size Kool....anybody else having this problem?

I'm waiting until RTH today for a trade. I just don't like that we have all these numbers up here....If I take a short at 89 here in the overnight I really don't want to be adding all the way up into the 94 - 96 zone off the weekly...if they decide to run it higher...

When in doubt , sit the move out...

I'd prefer shorts above 92...I hope they give us the chance...

87.50 is current HTP in overnight which is close to the VA low...
got resistance at 90.50-91.50 then 96.50
Short at 89.75 stop at 93 profit 2 points
I'm on the 91.75 print..short and not liking it ..yet...where are the high $ticks...?
FWIW,
after a trend decline, gapguy* calls an open below the Low of 2 days prior (thursday Low, Low was 1195.75) a "Cowboy" gap cause PA can be like a bucking bronco. He also says that with an open below that Low, chance for fill of today's gap is pretty good (although sometimes it takes some time).

I have a note that 91.25 area should be resistance. (Pivot based on Friday's RTH) But you have to see a sell pattern first. You have to see some sign of weakness (like a lower H that then breaks previous swing L).

I went back and looked at similar price pattern (down previous day, higher open, and Price (4/28/10) ultimately retraced (by noon) to print 1 point higher than the O/N Low. O/N Low today has been 1183.75

* I do not subscribe to the gapguy service, I just get his free video updates after the fact).
Originally posted by BruceM

There is no "air" there as I define it but perhaps you could elaborate...nice opening trade you took today..well done indeed.


Best air that needs to get tested is 94.25 - 95.50 from Mondays trade...the same spot I had my initial short..that's a cool zone
Originally posted by ak1

Can they march on without touching 1192????? We have 1 tick air there.



If we take a 30 min candle chart and apply a buy or sell (given the open of the current 30 min candle) at high, low and close of a previous 30 min. candle with a 1 tick profit. Each level should be profitable. If not we have air. As the market can rally it is not advisable to do it in a live account. Run a demo account side by side to diagnose it.