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ES short term trading 5-14-10


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05may2010calendarimage
bottom of these singles = 28.0
phileo,
no positive tick first 30min...

I remember reading a backtest of no NEGATIVE ticks in the first 30 min by Hanna of Quantifiable Edges, he found that when that occurred, you could still buy at 10am and 64% of the time (based on SPY 2005 up until a few months ago) price was higher as of the 4:00 close.

BUT, I don't know whether there is a backtest for no POSITIVE ticks in the first 30min. Maybe I'll do one, but not for a couple of weeks.

Today's market:
1129 is 50% of last week's range.

I am done for the day,

good trading to all.
Pls just be careful today and not too stubborn. This was posted earlier and a worthwhile read.


Posted - 05/14/2010 : 08:45:52
Just a word of caution. I have never seen Terry so negative.
http://www.ttheoryfoundation.org/t-theory-calculations.html
I've seen some +ve TICKs after 7am, and there was the TICK= -1370, usually that means selling climax, but not sure about that today, we keep breakin down to new lows, haven't even tagged a declining VWAP, haven't seen a support level work today.
short 1132 stop 1136
runners trying for 37.50 retest...so far Volume symetric...cool air pocket entry
Originally posted by phileo

short 1132 stop 1136

rationale was that NYAD at -2490, advancers not increasing, ie. no buyers.
1133 was the failed intraday low at 1005am shorting against this reference
Originally posted by phileo

Originally posted by phileo

short 1132 stop 1136

rationale was that NYAD at -2490, advancers not increasing, ie. no buyers.
1133 was the failed intraday low at 1005am shorting against this reference


out 1130.25, i think it will retest 1126, but don't wanna be greedy
best so far is hour range low retest...stop is at 27.25 on runners....need to get inside hour range and not come back out
Bruce. Beautiful work there. Very few have the skills to do what you did buying at 1132 and pulling out with a profit. I wasn't trying to scare anyone by saying ( post deleted) that today is a down trend day. Second floor guys are slow reacting (do to many variables and not always because a lack of trading skills) If one is able to identified the trend for the day, it is usually best to trade with it. I love trending days, but that's me. I can tell that we have many skillful traders here. Everyone has the gift of seeing in their own unique way.

Congrats on that trade

Originally posted by BruceM

all the volume at 38 - 40 now...so that is critical ..stuck inside hour range so I'd be careful..initiating a trade in here..would like a runner to get the O/N low breakdown point...


You guys where trying to scare me....LOL...I'll buy those minus 10 numbers and a 15 minute low break any day from you.....TOO muchtoo soon....just doesn't usually happen and stay down like that in the a.M


air pocket above 41.50 FWIW
Originally posted by redsixspeed

Originally posted by BruceM

so it seems my histogram on IB may be wrong...anyone else have a High Volume Histogram price up at 37 that is higher than the volume node at 30 or 31?

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Bruce,

Seems your right @ 37.00...I don't use vwap...I know kool says
load it just before open...I forget to load it...LOL

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I loaded vwap just before market close = 1136.00