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Does Fibonacci really work?


Anyone willing to comment on these statements that I have hearing more and more often these days:?

-You can make an argument that there is a fib trading level at every single bar on the chart. Take any chart, and draw any fib extensions or retracements, (pick a bar, any bar, pick a swing high/low , any swing high/low) and you will see some bar at any given fib level. Fibs will work after the move has been made. The fib trading method does not work during real time trading. On any given chart at any given time frame, there are a million fib levels...If you trade the fibs, you will over trade and chop your account up...

Is there some truth behind this statement? I wish there wasn't, but the more I think about....:(
Originally posted by BruceM

probably best to ask JP and make a list of your key questions...go straight to the source with concerns....this way you don't get second hand information...

Have you researched Balancetrader...I never found too many bad things said about Frank who runs it and it isn't hard core MP....

I don't want to paint too rosey of a picture of MP...

Dalton himself has courses and Alexander trading is geared towards MP....how much time and how commited are you? Will this be a fulltime gig if you are profitable..? do u have a timeframe in order to "make it" as a trader? Is daytrading the area you want to be or is it just anything that is profitable...?

For many of us the market has seemed to "call us" and we have no other choice but to trade......it's not always about the money.....sounds corny,, but I assume you are doing or have done the work on "yourself" which has made you think that trading is for you...

I guess the real point of that last sentence was trying to see if you've put enough effort into the other aspects of a possible career in trading..

all the best

Bruce


yes, day trading futures is where i want to be. yes, i have looked into the mirror at myself and thought long and hard. this is where i want to be. i live and breathe the markets (though not profitable yet...). there is no other channel in my car other than CNBC on my XM radio. (even though we shouldnt listen to CNBC when we trade, but I listen to it when ever I am out and about. i stare and look at charts every single day, and i mean every single day and night, before i go to my 9-5 job and after. even on weekends. there's is not a day i dont open my charts up. maybe just by habit, LOL....i have chart workspaces on a select few vendor's set-ups to study and study...yes, i have blown my account up a few times, and now i know. i am not putting a time table on how fast/slow i should make it. if they say 90-95% of new day traders fail and go away, then i am the select few that have failed and has not gone away and is willing to put the needed effort to be successful...THIS WILL BE MY FULL TIME GIG, WHEN I MAKE IT......

anyway, enough of me....yes, i have heard of the other vendor rooms that you suggested, but then again, if i ask the questions on these vendors in this forum, wouldnt a select few jump on me and condemn me as a shill again? LOL...just kidding.....had to throw that in there....

I know MP is not a rosey picture and i am not all into saying that "MP is the only way to go..." I just started inquiring about MP, cause it was something new to me...the more i look into, the more i learn it....maybe not for me...maybe the set-ups are too long to sit on thereby one needs a large enough accounts to take on the intra day draw down prior to hitting target at end of day.....

how long did your journey take to actually make it?
My ES daytrading journey started in late 1998...it took a bit under two years and a good beating mentally and financially..( lots of vendors too....before I thought I had things under control.

The journey still continues and hopefully always will but I still make tons of stupid mistakes and take trades that I could "filter" better...I'd also like to grow my account at a quicker pace but seem to freeze up when I expand to more contracts.

It seems just as I try to increase trade size the volatility increases so I back down...that's the short story...I still search forums, read books and buy stuff...some good stuff here and other places but it takes time to incorporate new ideas into ones routine/methods
Originally posted by BruceM

My ES daytrading journey started in late 1998...it took a bit under two years and a good beating mentally and financially..( lots of vendors too....before I thought I had things under control.

The journey still continues and hopefully always will but I still make tons of stupid mistakes and take trades that I could "filter" better...I'd also like to grow my account at a quicker pace but seem to freeze up when I expand to more contracts.

It seems just as I try to increase trade size the volatility increases so I back down...that's the short story...I still search forums, read books and buy stuff...some good stuff here and other places but it takes time to incorporate new ideas into ones routine/methods


thats great...I hope to get to your point shortly...BTW, do you use a live trade room now? or its all you?
I babble here in the daytrading threads...sound rooms distract me and make me question things too much but they are a big help to many...
Originally posted by MassiveCashTeam

Originally posted by BruceM

My ES daytrading journey started in late 1998...it took a bit under two years and a good beating mentally and financially..( lots of vendors too....before I thought I had things under control.

The journey still continues and hopefully always will but I still make tons of stupid mistakes and take trades that I could "filter" better...I'd also like to grow my account at a quicker pace but seem to freeze up when I expand to more contracts.

It seems just as I try to increase trade size the volatility increases so I back down...that's the short story...I still search forums, read books and buy stuff...some good stuff here and other places but it takes time to incorporate new ideas into ones routine/methods


thats great...I hope to get to your point shortly...BTW, do you use a live trade room now? or its all you?
Fibonacci retracements work when the person who is drawing them is aware of the certain rules and methods required to effectively utilize them as a trading tool. The problem is that people often make the mistake of trying "fit" Fibonaccis to what they are seeing in the price action. This method of drawing them will most certainly not yield desirable results. Instead, one must understand when to draw, trade, and delete Fibonaccis as the day goes by. I currently utilize fibonaccis is what is called an "ambush trading" method. When done correctly, Fibonaccis give you a clear picture of what the trend is, where the market is moving, and where the trend fails. The rules take sometime to learn, but once you got the hang of it, fibonaccis can be real money makers.
Originally posted by AddictedToTrading

Fibonacci retracements work when the person who is drawing them is aware of the certain rules and methods required to effectively utilize them as a trading tool. The problem is that people often make the mistake of trying "fit" Fibonaccis to what they are seeing in the price action. This method of drawing them will most certainly not yield desirable results. Instead, one must understand when to draw, trade, and delete Fibonaccis as the day goes by. I currently utilize fibonaccis is what is called an "ambush trading" method. When done correctly, Fibonaccis give you a clear picture of what the trend is, where the market is moving, and where the trend fails. The rules take sometime to learn, but once you got the hang of it, fibonaccis can be real money makers.



makes sense indeed....the more I read these comments, the more I am leaning towards learning from eminijunkie...