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ES short-term trading 5-27-2010


I have never initiated a "topic" here and I don't know if there are rules, but here's a try...

wow, it's all over? I certainly appreciated all the posts by BruceM and Kool, I was even intimidated by their expertise and willingness to pull trigger after trigger.

I hope they understand that many of the people who read the sight might have felt the same as I did (intimidated and questioning the worth of my own assessment of the markets)

I'll post an intermediate term chart in the next post.

I find it virtually impossible to trade and post, but I was amazed that this wonderful forum had become fallow.(apparently)

Right now, the ES market is at a critical juncture, as the High of the week is being challenged O/N and if there is a move to new highs in the RTH, that can easily force bears to cover, especially ahead of a 3-day weekend.

My big problem... I try to juggle too many things and often end up with analysis paralysis... But let's face it, damn little volume has gone into the trend higher overnight and RTH trading might produce a counter move before a resumption of up.

prices are already up over 2% and that is often a BIG move for a day.

I looked at the overnight volume at price

1087-1087.25

1086.50 to 1085 is air

1081

Ledge with 2nd biggest volume (since yest 4:15 close) is at 1087-1087.25

Highest volume at price looks like 1081.25

Shallow zone 1086.25 to 1085 with the closest "smallest volume" at 1086.25

1081 looks like biggest ovenight volume (support de la support?) and ties into BruceM ratchets if it holds.

In alittle bit (if I' e done this right) I hope to post a chart that will show 240 minute chart with cluster of potential targets in the 1106-1109 area.
short 90.50 for the 87.50,..tough area so lighter as no 60 minute run out yet,
nice ledge trying to form there at the 88.75 lows..
correct MM..they never change which is the most incredible thing about them.....we can use pivots, fibs, market profile numbers etc but they will still fall at these zones

these 6.25 numbers evolved out of the key numbers of


00,25,50 and 75

then we have the splits at 12.50 , 37.50 and 62.50

then we splitthem further which are the 6.25 increments....Crazy but true....

The only thing we need to adjust for is volatility...we certainly would be agressive to capture a 6.25 ratchet spread when the ranges diminish to 10 points or less ....obviously we need to know how to use them for our risk size and account etc...
Originally posted by MonkeyMeat

So Bruce, the 6.25 point ("ratchets") ... are you simply placing those levels statically across price beginning at "0" and then "6.25" and then "12.50" etc. all the way on up to and beyond where the SP is trading ... OR ... are you basing where you pick your "initiating point" on a price swing (for example) and then using that price to then generate the "ratchet" levels above and below that initial price level?
Originally posted by BruceM

I'm sorry if I intimidated you Paul....I make many bad trades too but usually try to post the high probability ideas so nobody is learning my bad habits. I hope nobody feels pressured to post and trade as that is not the smartist thing to do. I just wish more would share their ideas even if it is after the fact. It doesn't matter to me as I'm alays looking for consistent ideas that work over time.

We never know when we will get inspired or from what source.

I'm glad you posted your numbers Paul as it demonstrates why I was so "loud" yesterday about the numbers....here are my numbers that we can use for confluence that run from the key 50 number through the key 00 number..this obviously includes the 75 key also..



50
56.25
62.50
68.75
75
81.25
87.50
93.75
100


now look atthe keys you mentioned....look atthe overnight low, look at the 62.50..look at the 68.75 stall...the 75 stall...the 81.25


there all there....just fascinating.....use these for confluence with your signal

took the loser at 91.50..I'll try again..we have the target...when these ledges hold they often go for 8 - 10 points....so if this short is the wrong idea they will try to run it to 95 -97.50
Originally posted by BruceM

short 90.50 for th e87.50,..tough area so lighter as no 60 minute run out yet,
trying again light from the 93.50....we know they wantto break a hour high or low..so this is very risky..
crappy fill..took two at 91.50 print but filled at 92..last two will stop at 93.75..then they should run that hour high...these numbers are a blessing and a curse....
Good stuff and straightforward explanation! Will have to keep in mind the "splits" when reading a chart ... the "ratchets."

I wonder if the next split down could simply be 3.00 to accommodate a lower volatility mkt with smaller ranges. This is kinda like fractals in a way. Anyway, don't know if that further split "catches" the mkt rhythm or not. Just a simple idea from my simple mind fwiw.
Originally posted by BruceM

correct MM..they never change which is the most incredible thing about them.....we can use pivots, fibs, market profile numbers etc but they will still fall at these zones

these 6.25 numbers evolved out of the key numbers of


00,25,50 and 75

then we have the splits at 12.50 , 37.50 and 62.50

then we splitthem further which are the 6.25 increments....Crazy but true....

The only thing we need to adjust for is volatility...we certainly would be agressive to capture a 6.25 ratchet spread when the ranges diminish to 10 points or less ....obviously we need to know how to use them for our risk size and account etc...
Originally posted by MonkeyMeat

So Bruce, the 6.25 point ("ratchets") ... are you simply placing those levels statically across price beginning at "0" and then "6.25" and then "12.50" etc. all the way on up to and beyond where the SP is trading ... OR ... are you basing where you pick your "initiating point" on a price swing (for example) and then using that price to then generate the "ratchet" levels above and below that initial price level?
Originally posted by BruceM

I'm sorry if I intimidated you Paul....I make many bad trades too but usually try to post the high probability ideas so nobody is learning my bad habits. I hope nobody feels pressured to post and trade as that is not the smartist thing to do. I just wish more would share their ideas even if it is after the fact. It doesn't matter to me as I'm alays looking for consistent ideas that work over time.

We never know when we will get inspired or from what source.

I'm glad you posted your numbers Paul as it demonstrates why I was so "loud" yesterday about the numbers....here are my numbers that we can use for confluence that run from the key 50 number through the key 00 number..this obviously includes the 75 key also..



50
56.25
62.50
68.75
75
81.25
87.50
93.75
100


now look atthe keys you mentioned....look atthe overnight low, look at the 62.50..look at the 68.75 stall...the 75 stall...the 81.25


there all there....just fascinating.....use these for confluence with your signal


there is no official thread and I'm not planning one but this is all you do....

start at 00 and keep adding 6.25 points until you get to 100

00
6.25
12.50
18.75
25 ****
31.25
37.50
43.75
50 ****

you do the rest fang and you will have all the numbers....

I don't want to give my specific trades but a few ideas...

watch what happens around these numbers...do they push 3 points above or below and then trade back through..the number....

example...we went to 82.50 and missed the 81.25 key number...so you could have thought about buying the 87.50 and risking 3 points to target 90.50 ( my "90 will print post " was a typo...should have read 90.5) and then 93.75 or 93.50 would be the next target.....you need to figure out when ratchets fail...what will you do but I'm not using this as a stop and reverse method....you could have tried a buy at 83.50 if you split the ratchets even further but too many lines and levels will not only drive you crazy but also give too many signals

example two: see my trade where I was long 90.50 and targeted 93.75 ...because they didn't print 87.50 and we had 4 matching highs above.....

Ya need a target in mind....!!! Critical for me...more ideas latter

There are lots of smart folk that are way beyond me here including yourself so I hope that those who find value in the ratchets will share ideas /methods that could benefit everyone....


Example now....is it possible that many will try and buy the 93.75 and target 96.75...? If you like breakouts....I prefer the fades and like to watch when an objective isn't achieved..if they buy the 93.75 and it doesn't hit target then watch what happens if it trades 3 points under there...90.75....just some ideas..please don't trade any of these blindly ...we need context
Originally posted by feng456

I followed my plan, which is detailed in a thread called My Trading Plan. Please guys take a look and tell me if I`m on the right track or not.

Bruce, where can I find a detailed explanation of how you find your rachet levels...
duplicate post
one giant bracket between 88.75 and 93.75...I've noticed some good trending Activity when we consolidate between RATCHETS...!!we'll see


yes MM....those 3 point lines would be too much for me to initiate off of but I like them for initial targets if some other chart point is in the area


I'm trying to get one off at 90.50 and haven't got filled ..then 87.50 on last...
I couldn't do it either. Just not enough to convince me to stay long so I stepped out to enjoy the afternoon. Saw it finally reached that 1100. Oh well.