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ES short-term trading 5-27-2010


I have never initiated a "topic" here and I don't know if there are rules, but here's a try...

wow, it's all over? I certainly appreciated all the posts by BruceM and Kool, I was even intimidated by their expertise and willingness to pull trigger after trigger.

I hope they understand that many of the people who read the sight might have felt the same as I did (intimidated and questioning the worth of my own assessment of the markets)

I'll post an intermediate term chart in the next post.

I find it virtually impossible to trade and post, but I was amazed that this wonderful forum had become fallow.(apparently)

Right now, the ES market is at a critical juncture, as the High of the week is being challenged O/N and if there is a move to new highs in the RTH, that can easily force bears to cover, especially ahead of a 3-day weekend.

My big problem... I try to juggle too many things and often end up with analysis paralysis... But let's face it, damn little volume has gone into the trend higher overnight and RTH trading might produce a counter move before a resumption of up.

prices are already up over 2% and that is often a BIG move for a day.

I looked at the overnight volume at price

1087-1087.25

1086.50 to 1085 is air

1081

Ledge with 2nd biggest volume (since yest 4:15 close) is at 1087-1087.25

Highest volume at price looks like 1081.25

Shallow zone 1086.25 to 1085 with the closest "smallest volume" at 1086.25

1081 looks like biggest ovenight volume (support de la support?) and ties into BruceM ratchets if it holds.

In alittle bit (if I' e done this right) I hope to post a chart that will show 240 minute chart with cluster of potential targets in the 1106-1109 area.
one of my bigger trading goals is to try and spell ratchets correctly....

this tight coil in the market is gonna blow soon...I hope down to my 87.50....which probably means it will go up...to 96.75 and 1100...and I won't be on that train north
many would say we are accepting price above the open and the VA high of yesterday which goes well with the breakout up.....


me, I'm just not sure...I thought it would have gone up by now
I thought it would have gone somewhere by now. Still early afternoon though.
So far only a 12.25 RTH trading range today w/past 2 1/2 hours in a 6.5 point range. (granted, a lot of movement ON) But this out-of-the-blue extreme range contraction, compared to past few week's daily ranges, is kinda insane. I'm simply totally mixed as to whether a move outta here is gonna be long or short ... and option prems are too high to straddle or strangle this thang.

With that 94-99 resist zone above and not venturing into it yet, 88.00 needs to hold or could retrace some of O/N move up. Would look to short into a small bounce on a break that holds below 88.00 if we go that way. Prob means we're going straight up to 1150 by the close
anytime we reach a ratchet we need to try and fiqure out if that ratchet will hold or give way to the next one...


so now that we hit 87.50 then if we had a short signal we ulitimately would like to try for that 81.25 and the longs who think it will hold will try for 93.75 again......no specific trade here and I'm just pointing out the thinking atthe level of 87.50
well there's your ratchet (sans 1 tick) off 87.50 up to 93.50 ... nice!
Originally posted by BruceM

anytime we reach a ratchet we need to try and fiqure out if that ratchet will hold or give way to the next one...


so now that we hit 87.50 then if we had a short signal we ulitimately would like to try for that 81.25 and the longs who think it will hold will try for 93.75 again......no specific trade here and I'm just pointing out the thinking atthe level of 87.50
there's a gap in the data at 91.75 but we know they may go for the 98 and the 1100....just an FYI..air pocket held ..we need a new air pocket to try and short
and single prints back to 94.75...
conceptually if they can't print the 1100 then they will try back for 93.75...the air pocket entry was on th e97 close but not much space there..runners will have to go above highs as stops
I still fear the market may give back some of its gains into the market close. I took a 94.75 long but got out at 97. Not a good day for me to be guessing.
I couldn't do it either. Just not enough to convince me to stay long so I stepped out to enjoy the afternoon. Saw it finally reached that 1100. Oh well.