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ES short term trading 6-3-10


Good morning crew,

O/N Market had slightly upward bias O/N range is 1096 - 1104

1105 is resistance from last week
1097-1098 is yesterday's gap fill and daily hi
1084-1086 is friday's low, Tues. VPOC, POC and reaction area from last week.
1081 was the start of Mon. breakdown, and start of yesterday's breakout.

1069-1070 is an unfilled gap and double bottom (more obvious on a volume chart)

Today's stretch (from opening price) is 7pts.
Price is currently above the value areas of all sessions since May21.
Euro was slightly weak in the European session, and this morning's 830 am economic releases were slightly below expectations, but mkt response has been non-chalant.


Today is MATD, so my guess for the initial MATD oscillation points are:
1105-1106
1090-1094

Today's daily Range estimate is 1087 - 1112
Based on current mkt strength, I think mkt will probe the 1105-1106 area first before attempting to fill gap (1097).

Click image for original size
jun3plan
Originally posted by phileo

here comes the rain.
short 1100.75 1pt stop
hopefully dip buyers can stop it at gap fill 1097


out 1099.75 ....
last add was at hour breakdown....I have two left , targeted 1100 as this was second add on to original campaign...and ratchet

I'm using profits as a stop loss....I',m thinking ratchets.....we know the 93.75 is near by...and we know we have that gap and a ratchet at 1105 - 1106.25......they certainly like the 1100 today...
phileo,
can you describe in some sort of quantitative way what a trend day is?

in other words, is it a day where RTH 30 minute bars only have 1 or 2 bars where previous 30min bar low is undercut...

is there any mathematically expressed condition that exists on a "trend" day?
they obviously need to resolve their "problems" with this 1100 area...

hoping for the upside but that is a grand goal considering yesterdays buying surge


the only time we can hope while trading is when we have runners or extras...otherwise it's better to clear ones head and get out of the market
new lows will take these last two out...trying for 1103 and then that gap if lucky and they go up from here....
correct....that's obvious..I hope.....we also need to print another ratchet still if the ranges stay 12 .5 points or more..

Like triples they make us suffer for them sometimes
Originally posted by Piker

Originally posted by BruceM

here is the gap...don't trust shorts till that is cleaned up...perhaps they will smoke me and long side will not work
Click image for original size
gapathighs



Bruce,

Is the gap between the high/close of the last green bar and the high/open of the last red bar? Trying to see if I recognize it or not.
the air is always valid until filled in Paul but I'd prefer to trade for current days air if given the choices and that air formed in the after noon when trends form more often[


I like the immediate targets over the longer term ones..you can see how that thinking can also cause us to miss good ideas....like holding shorts for the gap fill instead of going for that 1105 gap at the highs....tough choices sometimes

Originally posted by PAUL9

Bruce,
I see that little gap, but I also see rth gap below.


isn't there air open from yesterday 88-87.25, or do you consider that negated by 1min? -still looks like it's there to me.

this second day in a row with an unfilled gap up, historical odds roughly 7 in 10 that gap fills.
took one off at 1102.75 print.. they may back and fill again...last target is that freakin gap..!!
Originally posted by phileo

Based on current mkt strength, I think mkt will probe the 1105-1106 area first before attempting to fill gap (1097).

Good analysis and market read from your initial post of the morning.
Originally posted by PAUL9

phileo,
can you describe in some sort of quantitative way what a trend day is?

in other words, is it a day where RTH 30 minute bars only have 1 or 2 bars where previous 30min bar low is undercut...

is there any mathematically expressed condition that exists on a "trend" day?

I know that this question is directed at phileo but I can try and answer it as it's a question that I've been struggling with for years. Here are some rough rules from memory for how I have flagged a trend day after the day's trading has completed. (i.e. can't determine during the day.)
  • Open is within 10% of high or low and close is within 10% of opposite high or low. (Percentage based on range. e.g. if range is 20 points then open must be within 2 points of high/low.)
  • Range is no less than 75% of 5 day average range.
That does not guarantee that you'll pick out a range day (for back testing for example) but it does catch a lot of them. There are other techniques like calculating the linear regression of the average of the 5 minute OHLC bars and then examining the price points along that regression line to determine how far they fall from the line. I have never tried that though...
there was someone here who was looking at triples in the O/N session and then POOF !! They disappeared.....maybe they just made so much money trading for them.....Ha! I hope it keeps running up..triples are all over the place in this O/N but I still want 1105.25 cleaned up...
Originally posted by Piker

Originally posted by BruceM

anyone getting long in O/N..? My world seems to think that tomorrow whould make a HH and HL then today...so why notget in early ? Like at 1100 area....and 1105 still needs work I think...Anybody ? Anybody "


I am long at 1100.75 shooting for the triple at 1104.25, at least initially.