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ES short term trading 6-22-10


Looking for sells on any moves up with high $ticks this am...key resistence zone is 17- 20......not sure if it will get up there so look for a plus 2.5 - 4 off open print up to fade
starting shorts at 11 even now!! looking for 07.50 first
ll add on a push above 12.50 ..that will be plus 2.5..slightly higher
plus 4 was the key add...I hope...
Thank you Bruce - great forecast!
I guess most have found a new room to hang at. Lets go over a few things for those who read this later.

1) We have a down OVB on the daily chart with a close below the midpoint = BEARISH

2)We open and rally into a plus 4 - 5.5 pitbull number which is also the Value area low

3)We had two air pockets with the third and fourth 5 minute bars of the day. and one of them broke out the 15 minute high.

4) It was the day after a trend down day so we have a "sell the rallies and buy the breaks" Bias

5)The $ ticks hit over 900 on that push up


SELL LIKE CRAZY !!

not much more to say...
Thanks Hari...my last post kind of sums of the thinking on that...combining real time info and daily probabilities...


we still should break the daily OVB low but it certainly won't be a beeline , straight down..
Originally posted by hari

Thank you Bruce - great forecast!
good stuff, Bruce.

kind of interesting opening move up yest attracts sellers...same with today...

I wrote a pice of code looking at Monday's that:

1)have gap open that is higher than the H of the prev Wk (like Yest)
2) that monday closes below its Open (like yest)

overwhelming number sees PA in RTH on Tues test or undrrcut Monday's Low. Monday's low was 1103.25
some other thoughts about daily OVB's in the S&P...


Confirmed ( closing below it's midpoint) bearish OVB's will trade below it's lows before it breaks out of it's highs over 75% of the time.

If we could sell above the midrange of 1115.50, we can risk to the OVB days highs if we desire and target the OVB's low..we only need to be right 60% of the time to be beyond the risk of finacial ruin over time. Soybeans are a good market for OVB's on the daily...or they use to be....some could probably make a living just trading OVB's off the daily in Soybeans and bonds...

The real point is that sells with confirmed entries are the way to go until that low is broken.

I'd like to see that 1101 I've been watching print today...
that fits well with the OVB probabilities....a nice addition to help us try and stay short until it's broken....they won't make it easy for us and will chop it up some more


See how we had two 30 minute bars that traded through the open
Originally posted by PAUL9

good stuff, Bruce.

kind of interesting opening move up yest attracts sellers...same with today...

I wrote a pice of code looking at Monday's that:

1)have gap open that is higher than the H of the prev Wk (like Yest)
2) that monday closes below its Open (like yest)

overwhelming number sees PA in RTH on Tues test or undrrcut Monday's Low. Monday's low was 1103.25
interesting you point out 1101, would be typical, natural for Price to test 50% of prior week's range, (I am talking RTH range, whether it's the same for the 24hour prices I don't know

50% of last week's RTH range is 1100.50
Originally posted by BruceM

Piker...in your Market profile chart go to "preferences" and then "reference lines"...there is a check box for "singles"..let me know if you get it going


Ok, I got it checked. For some reason I found it located in a different spot; i.e., under the "prices levels" tab but I'm sure it is the same setting as yours.