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ES short term trading 6-24-10


So just how important will the O/N low be ? I think very important as that is right at the very peak of the long term composite of 1078 !! Last two days of the $ ticks show slight up divergence and the 3 WAR has been achieved....

Hoping all that sets up the long side for us and at a minimum a half gap fill at the open ideally into the 85 - 87.50 area...This will be fourth down day and that would mean that the dumb money will be trying to sell......

Could be wrong of course but I'd be cautious on the short side especially if they run it down first today!!

So starting a small long at 81.25....long way to go until open and O/N trading still messes me up..

Only add will be in RTH below 78...
correct Piker....I'm not usually adding in PM session.....too many trends and the morning is really my expertise......so for me it is morning fades and afternoon trends......Summer will be mostly morning and I don' t always trade the afternoon.....Overnight I just suck at !!


the 9 bars...

You will find that 9 bars of lower lows will be an EXTREME move....most times it will be 4 - 5 if even that many in the morning...I'm also always looking at the 15 minute break and the air pockets that form after that for add ons...Today would have been an easier day but I put those 3 contracts on in the O/N at 81.25 so I was trading to get those clean...not really a great way to form a target..
Originally posted by Piker

Originally posted by BruceM

that was 5 down bars in a row to break that O/N low.....9 is the high end for an early flush....Ticks still diverging


Could you elaborate on this when you have time? What is the significance of 9 down bars leading to an early accelerated selloff?

Also, you only will fade (add to a position) in the morning session but not in the afternoon (because of trending) correct?
last long try at 73.75...looking to break that trendline
new lows will make this a loser...hitting trend line now
inthe back of my mind I'm thinking about how much time is being spent BELOW that key 78 - 81 zone....so they seem to be accepting that node from underneath it..which make longs the wrong side or at least harder...
took the loser at 72.50.....just wathcing now...need a good air pocket to do any fades now...downside is 70 and the 62 - 66 should be interesting if it gets that low
these damn $ticks keep showing divergence on these lows from the last two days.....suspicios!!....$ticks are hard to read quite often for me
long 69.75....last try before lunch.....just seems too earlt for a real trend...volume still symetric
Originally posted by BruceM

correct Piker....I'm not usually adding in PM session.....too many trends and the morning is really my expertise......so for me it is morning fades and afternoon trends......Summer will be mostly morning and I don' t always trade the afternoon.....Overnight I just suck at !!


the 9 bars...

You will find that 9 bars of lower lows will be an EXTREME move....most times it will be 4 - 5 if even that many in the morning...I'm also always looking at the 15 minute break and the air pockets that form after that for add ons...Today would have been an easier day but I put those 3 contracts on in the O/N at 81.25 so I was trading to get those clean...not really a great way to form a target..[quote]Originally posted by Piker

[quote]Originally posted by BruceM

that was 5 down bars in a row to break that O/N low.....9 is the high end for an early flush....Ticks still diverging


I forgot to ask what timeframe for those bars? I assume 5min but correct me if I am wrong.
took two at 71.75..that was the break point.....these bars are fakes quite often..more later
runners at 69.75 stop....


so these 5 minute bars that close way off there lows above the midpoint.....they often suck in buyers only to take out the low before the high....

It's like all the doji players jump onthe long train

I'd like to see a 30 minute close inside that hour low....17 minutes to go
Great Piker....it sometimes hard to stand aside from the market but these trends in the afternoon have cost me lots of lost profits.....Now, when I do trade in the afternoon I'd rather miss any longside on days like this....

Paul may a good point todat which infered that in bull trends lows are made early and highs made late....so bears will make the highs early and lows late...he also posted the average open to high which was right on today..