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ES short term trading 6-24-10


So just how important will the O/N low be ? I think very important as that is right at the very peak of the long term composite of 1078 !! Last two days of the $ ticks show slight up divergence and the 3 WAR has been achieved....

Hoping all that sets up the long side for us and at a minimum a half gap fill at the open ideally into the 85 - 87.50 area...This will be fourth down day and that would mean that the dumb money will be trying to sell......

Could be wrong of course but I'd be cautious on the short side especially if they run it down first today!!

So starting a small long at 81.25....long way to go until open and O/N trading still messes me up..

Only add will be in RTH below 78...
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... DONT WORRY, Bruce ,youll get the rat ,plus a couple more ticks
that 5 minute bar is one for the manual when we all sit down and write one...LOL....how they made me suffer for that one?? flat now...
Originally posted by BruceM

this is a scary place...consolidation below YD lows and at that 78 - 81 zone......No fades for me down here...I'd rather miss it if they decide on the rally to close...leaning for shorts....watch thay evil 5 minute wimp bar from earlier for clueas


Originally posted by BruceM
that 5 minute bar is one for the manual when we all sit down and write one...LOL....how they made me suffer for that one?? flat now...


Bruce,

Are you talking about the 5min bar that I have highlighted in the rectangular box in the chart below?



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no but that had the same low as mine...it is the bar at about 11:15 EST...we had a big volume bar followed that low range bar which at that time was the lowest 5 minute bar of the day....


Now low range bars happen all the time over lunch etc but it where and when this bar forms that is critical...

we have that big down thrust and then the market stops and consolidates in a tight range ( Low range bar)...

so you can look for these at swing highs and lows


The smallest lunch time bars had only one point of range...could a scalper or a breakout trader use them to put trades on....Yes....look at todays and what would happen if you just bought and sold breaks of those bars.....How big are the wins ? How many losses.. ? How far did the market go before another one point bar formed?

Do people look at low range weeks? Low range days....? so why limit ourselves to those time frames..look atthe lowest 15 minute bars from today.( only two points of range)...how did the breakouts win and lose..? just some ideas....we can see when buying or selling MAY be drying up by the size of the bars..
look how that 2:30 low range 15 minute bar was fromed by a low range 5 minute....that makes sense...and you will often see the fake...in other words in runs outthe highs and then takes outthe lows....

so that is the price you need to be willing to pay if you play breakouts.....how many times would you stop and reverse....?


So the market is saying " Hey man, I'm stopping here to rest but I'm not telling you if I have enough strength to climb higher....but I'm gonna try " so when it does have power it kepps running higher and when it's out of gas it rolls over...sometimes far and sometime not very far.... so is the world of breakouts...


Now you know why I sold that 71 area twice late in the day....
Originally posted by BruceM

look how that 2:30 low range 15 minute bar was fromed by a low range 5 minute....that makes sense...and you will often see the fake...in other words in runs outthe highs and then takes outthe lows....

so that is the price you need to be willing to pay if you play breakouts.....how many times would you stop and reverse....?


So the market is saying " Hey man, I'm stopping here to rest but I'm not telling you if I have enough strength to climb higher....but I'm gonna try " so when it does have power it kepps running higher and when it's out of gas it rolls over...sometimes far and sometime not very far.... so is the world of breakouts...


Now you know why I sold that 71 area twice late in the day....


OK, but the low range 15 minute bar you refer to was up at 1078 area and the market indeed decided it was "outta gas" and it rolled over with an initial 10+ point sell-off. But what made you certain that selling at 1071 was a high enough retrace? I didn't trade the half hour (thankfully) but I expected a much higher retrace off the first bottom than you were (such as back to 1075). And you ended up being right for a nice move down from 1071 to the 67 area after some consolidation.

In other words, I know you had questioned whether or not they would rally to the close, you had mentioned that in a previous post. How did you know they wouldn't? There was some consolidation in the ~1071-1069 area before it broke to the downside. Again, I thought it could go either way but I was expecting it to go to the upside. Luckily I left it alone cause I would have been dead wrong.
Piker,

I was thinking about two main themes:

1) we spent the day accepting price below yesterdays lows....this was giving me a hint that the market was finding Value at Lower levels....if price was such a bargain I think they would have tried to rally it up much further and earlier......I actually thought that was going to happen initially as you can tell by my initial posts and long trades.

2) We spent most of the day BELOW that key 78 - 81 area I've been babbling on about in the MP thread...


So that is two reasons...

they will only test any area so many times before they break it down....some like the third time....so that was the case today
and just for the record Piker...I wasn't certain...I actually used a stop loss which u usually don't see me use or post in threads..


we know they tend to trend it later in the day....so Am I expecting them to trend it up at the end with all that resistence up there..?.and making new lows..They had all day to rally it and couldn't.... but it happens...sometimes we get the fakeout and the rally..so we have stops for when we are wrong!!


Let me know if that answers your questions....I ramble on on the wrong topic sometimes...
Thanks for the explanation Bruce. Appreciate it.
Originally posted by BruceM

and just for the record Piker...I wasn't certain...I actually used a stop loss which u usually don't see me use or post in threads..


we know they tend to trend it later in the day....so Am I expecting them to trend it up at the end with all that resistence up there..?.and making new lows..They had all day to rally it and couldn't.... but it happens...sometimes we get the fakeout and the rally..so we have stops for when we are wrong!!


Let me know if that answers your questions....I ramble on on the wrong topic sometimes...


This really stands out to me now. I have to admit I did fade a long trade into that 10+ point sell-off. I was able to profit from it but I could have ended up taking a loss on that if it hadn't bounced back up a little. After I was in the trade I remembered what you said about not fading in the afternoon. I even asked you about it in an earlier post and figured it would come back to haunt me. Luckily it didn't but I stayed the hell away from the market after that. Then I saw you short at 1071 and knew I got lucky watching it go back down to the low.
Great Piker....it sometimes hard to stand aside from the market but these trends in the afternoon have cost me lots of lost profits.....Now, when I do trade in the afternoon I'd rather miss any longside on days like this....

Paul may a good point todat which infered that in bull trends lows are made early and highs made late....so bears will make the highs early and lows late...he also posted the average open to high which was right on today..